Hours before the commencement of Special Session of Parliament, the country is not quite sure why a 'special' session was summoned. Many competing images, issues and questions buffer the citizens, political protagonists and experts.
Perhaps other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a very select few in PMO and Home Minister Amit Shah, none knows what would be really unveiled in the coming week.
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In real sense all eyes are on next year's parliamentary elections. From one perspective, the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi need to win. The Opposition also knows if Modi gets another decisive mandate like last two - 2014 and 2019 - it would become more difficult for them to strike back. In fact, many parties and leaders will lose out their relevance and will be compelled to seek retirement either voluntary or by design.
All these make the common people think more subtly about the election outcome because it will be so central to India's and each individual's own future. The election outcome will set the trend for next 20-25 years when India will be approaching its century as an independent entity in 2047.
So in many ways the coming general elections will not be for next five years. There are various parameters to look at. Modi remains extremely popular notwithstanding 9 years in office as PM and prior to that 13 years as Chief Minister of one of the most prosperous and 'well governed' state of Gujarat.
So, in all, Modi is in public office since 2001 and yet so popular -- even by global standards.
There is something crucial happening around in India's neighbourhood in the meantime. A country like Sri Lanka has gone through a crisis, and in the west we have Pakistan. But having said so, we must acknowledge that notwithstanding the frequent sparring between Islamabad and Delhi; there is very little sound knowledge or 'scholarship' in India on the evolution of Pakistan.
In 2000 during a Defence Correspondents' training (for journalists) conducted by the Ministry of Defence, some of us were told by a senior military commander operating then in Jammu and Kashmir that; India's perception of Pakistan is generally shaped by our own political attitudes and less by the 'realities' across the border. Thus there is an 'added importance' about the general situation in Pakistan in 2023 and especially its deteriorating economy.
Michael Kugelman, a senior associate for south Asia at the Wilson Center thinktank, said “The biggest challenge (in Pakistan) moving forward is the lack of trust – the social contract between state and society is fraying. If not addressed, that can have troubling consequences over the longer term.”
Well, one way to look at it is to be delighted. But the 'brother-enemy' is also an immediate neighbbour and a nuclear power with terrorism menace strengthening its grip. All these contribute towards making a more challenging atmosphere for us.
But the timing for all this is also important as India is now on a new growth trajectory and also has been able to show its newly attained 'influencer' role in the comity of nations. The successful holding of G20 Summit is one definite case where we have able to show that India has emerged. It is today world's fifth largest economy.
Mind you in next two years; it may attain the 4th position by surpassing Germany. In 2014, India was the 10th largest economy. Howsoever conservative you may be, but Modi and his government will deserve the credit for jumping five numbers despite Covid19 and general global melt down.
Thus possibly by 2025, for the first time in 300 years, there will not be a single European country in the top 4. This is a huge development in the global space. And that way, it will be a real Asian era as three nations - China, Japan and India will be at the top of the ladder along with the world's most powerful nation, the United States.
The G20 summit was India's big moment on the world stage, giving the country an opportunity to work on global issues. Prime Minister Narendra Modi now has a legitimate claim to present his credentials as a global statesman.
All these ought to be galvanised as a bouquet to win the next year's polls.
So, the BJP's strategists and Modi himself have started working with a multi-pronged approach. It is trying to strengthen state units and has planned the Special Session of parliament.
His admirers say Modi has always challenged the concept of ‘status quoist’, a feature practiced and hailed in Indian polity. Instead Modi banks on certain ‘out-of-box’ thinking and actions. Narendra Modi represents uniqueness in the Indian political scene in more ways than one. He has a very humble political background and from the hind side, he has or had nothing in his favour.
The caste, the political party and even the family background; nothing in normal circumstances would have worked for him. The party he represents and today leads as the prime minister is most often outright dismissed as ‘communal’ Hindu chauvinist outfit owing allegiance to the RSS in Nagpur.
Prior to Modi's tenure since 2014, although the party has tasted power in the centre for 6 years under the illustrious Atal Behari Vajpayee, the BJP did not have pan-India presence. But last nine years, there have been a sea change.
Even in 2019, the BJP’s one of the chief challenges was to ensure party’s comparatively 'good performance' in states such as West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Odhisa where the saffron party over the decades remained organizationally weak. But in 2019, considerable ground was captured. The BJP won 18 seats in West Bengal.
Hence, the BJP strategists now are working with micro state-level and even sub-regional level planning in some states.
His admirers say Modi has always challenged the concept of ‘status quoist’, a feature practiced and hailed in Indian polity. Instead Modi banks on certain ‘out-of-box’ thinking and actions. Narendra Modi represents uniqueness in the Indian political scene in more ways than one. He has a very humble political background and from the hind side, he has or had nothing in his favour.
The caste, the political party and even the family background; nothing in normal circumstances would have worked for him. The party he represents and today leads as the prime minister is most often outright dismissed as ‘communal’ Hindu chauvinist outfit owing allegiance to the RSS in Nagpur.
Prior to Modi's tenure since 2014, although the party has tasted power in the centre for 6 years under the illustrious Atal Behari Vajpayee, the BJP did not have pan-India presence. But last nine years, there have been a sea change.
Even in 2019, the BJP’s one of the chief challenges was to ensure party’s comparatively 'good performance' in states such as West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Odhisa where the saffron party over the decades remained organizationally weak. But in 2019, considerable ground was captured. The BJP won 18 seats in West Bengal.
Hence, the BJP strategists now are working with micro state-level and even sub-regional level planning in some states.
Modi will need clean sweep of 26 seats in Gujarat. It will need good performance yet again in Uttar Pradesh, and despite anti-incubency, the Lotus party will need about 50 seats. Similarly, the BJP will need to win at least 35 seats in Maharashra out of 48. Here comes the importance of taking NCP breakaway group led by Ajit Pawar by its side.
The saffron party's numbers will decline significantly in Karnataka and even in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. It has to draw up plans to compensate these numbers.
It may possibly strike some 'latent' deals in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana -- the possible understanding will be the regional parties will not be disturbed in assembly polls in these two states and in return Lok Sabha nominees will win.
ends
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