Delhi Declaration may turn out as 'most effective' at putting pressure on Russia :::: There is a sign of India's growing influence

“So I think that is a good and strong outcome. And as you can see from this summit, Russia is completely isolated.” -- UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak

Rishi Sunak, who said “putting pressure” on Russia was one of his priorities for the summit, hailed the declaration as including “very strong language about Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine”.

“What you’ll see in the communique is strong language, highlighting the impact of the war on food prices and food security, calling on Russia to re-enter the Black Sea grain initiative to allow exports to leave that part of the world and help feed millions of the most vulnerable people as well as the communique recognising the principles of the UN Charter respecting territorial integrity.

(India has made it possible that the world can think together in unison and tread a path towards one world, one family and one future.) 

“The question of who helped [the Declaration/agreement]? I mean, eventually, everybody helped because everybody came together for the consensus. I think the emerging markets took a particular lead on this, and many of us have a strong history of working together........The point to be recognised is that a common landing point was ultimately fashioned out.” - Dr S Jaishankar 

New Delhi 

Often harsh words and threats to isolate may not yield expected results. That way'Delhi Declaration' of G20 Summit 2023 will be spoken in the diplomatic circle in days to come.

It may be a 'watered down' version of what most countries wanted and what was issued at Bali in 2022, but in the ultimate, results matter. Hence a refrain has surfaced that the Delhi Declaration may prove effective at putting pressure on Moscow.

Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov represented President Vladimir Putin, and not surprisingly, he pointed out: “The text doesn’t mention Russia at all.”

On this backdrop, the words of President of Turkey, Tayyip Erdogan, are also vital and somehow these must have worked in other leaders as well.

"We believe that any initiative that isolates Russia is bound to fail. Its success is a very little possibility. We believe that any step that may escalate the tensions in the Black Sea should be avoided," Turkish president said. 

On the other hand, Lavrov remarked, “We were able to prevent the west’s attempts to ‘Ukrainise’ the summit agenda".

In all these India as well as the US seemed to have played the cards well. 

The announcement of a Comprehensive rail and shipping connectivity network linking the US, India, Saudi Arabia and Gulf and Arab states and European Union was a critical takeaway.

This is critical from the China angle too. This ambitious project is seen as a conceptual rival to China’s New Silk Road, the "increasingly discredited belt and road initiative (BRI)". 

"Biden has used successive summits to try to rebrand a clunky western alternative to Belt and Road, and this seems the most persuasive so far," says an article by Patrick Wintour in 'The Guardian'. 

Officials in the countries involved, including Israel and Saudi Arabia, are now expected within eight weeks to come up with a timeline for the projects – linking energy grids, laying undersea and overland cables, and providing more digital connections.

Von der Leyen, European Commission President, described it as “much more than just a railway or a cable”. “It is a green and digital bridge across continents and civilisations,” she said.

PM Narendra Modi said the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor promised to be “a beacon of cooperation, innovation, and shared progress”. The US President said it was a “game-changing investment”.

  

Notably, Israel, which does not have diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, was also brought on to the project along with Jordan.In fact, discussions for the project had begun in July last year during Joe Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia.

Later it was pursued at the next level in a meeting between India, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

It's simple in some ways. The Belt and Road project of China stretches across Asia, Africa and Latin America and has given China sizable influence over countries that have struggling economies.Now this new initiative will provide a counterbalance to China’s vast infrastructure corridor.

According to Rajesh Rajagopalan, a professor of international politics at Jawaharlal Nehru University, the scope of the India, Middle East, Europe corridor could “reshape the discourse around development and infrastructure assistance, taking the fight to Beijing on the international stage”.

PM Modi has already proposed a virtual G20 summit under his chairmanship in two months or by the year end and this could be another turning point.

In terms of a diluted stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is believed Joe Biden also understands the need for his changed priorities.In the context of ensuing elections in his country, Biden's foreign policy priorities should now get more focused towards 'containing China' in the Indo-Pacific. Ukraine may be allowed to perceptibly slip down the lane a bit. 

Namo with Italian PM Goergia Meloni

Kurt Campbell, Biden’s Indo-Pacific aide and tsar, said in July, “It is no secret that India is one of most sought-after players on the global stage.”

The fact of the matter is at the G20 Delhi Summit, not many countries were in a position to say no to India.

Dr S Jaishankar at his press conference on Saturday underlined some of the important cantours of today's diplomatic reality. Something has changed even in the last nine months. There is a sign of India's growing influence.

Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa and also Turkey came to the aid of those who slogged for hours to ensure a Delhi Declaration and with 100 percent consensus.

Answering a question from a foreign journalist, he said, “Bali was Bali. New Delhi is Delhi. Bali was a year ago, the situation was different. Many things have happened since then". 

Going into the summit, analysts understood a joint statement looked difficult if not sheer impossible. There were two other possibilities - a lowest-common-denominator agreement (the eventual outcome) and a statement with footnotes allowing some countries to disown parts of the agreement.

There was speculation that New Delhi may issue just a chair's statement. 

But as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said at the G20 Delhi Summit, the country and Modi's stewardship has really 'walked the talk'.

ends

(Nirendra Dev is a New Delhi-based journalist. He is also author of the books ‘The Talking Guns: North East India’, and ‘Modi to Moditva: An Uncensored Truth’. Views expressed are personal)