Much ado about AAP's 'national party' status, BJP excels in 2022

New Delhi 

In terms of election management, the calendar year 2022 has been particularly very good for the BJP.

The saffron party earlier this year retained power in key states of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur and the Gujarat performance has been all time best.

In contrast, the opposition appears directionless and in a chaotic existence. The AAP battle was hyped in Gujarat especially after the 'accidental win' in Punjab. TRS is now happy being called Bharat Rashtra Samithi and AAP armed with 12.5 per cent votes will get recognition as a national party. 

This 'national party' status is no blank cheque to garner votes across the country though a section of English media will try to push such a line. In the past even the year Left parties were ousted in West Bengal, the CPI-M was a 'national party' whereas Trinamool Congress was not.

This is more a technical matter as defined by the EC than giving it any legitimacy to claim votes across India. There are a host of criteria. It has to be ‘recognised’ in four or more states. Leaders like Ram Vilas Paswan were always keen for such a status and therefore he used to even field candidates in all seats in states such as Mizoram. The party candidates have to poll at least 6 percent of total valid votes in any four or more states in the 'last Lok Sabha or Assembly elections' and it has at least four MPs in the last Lok Sabha polls. Such recognition is given even if the party has won at least 2% of the total seats in the Lok Sabha from not less than three states.

A party with at least one MP for every 25 members or any fraction allotted to the state in the Lok Sabha; or with at least 8% of the total valid votes in the last Assembly election or Lok Sabha election from the state can get such recognition.

Thus, more often we find more influential regional parties such as the BJD in Odisha, YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh and the DMK in Tamil Nadu would be too happy to be called regional parties.
Politically, the opposition will find things crazier in 2023 and the year of general elections - 2024 too. AAP's emergence
as a player in Punjab and Gujarat would make things more complicated as its fight in these states will be
essentially against the Congress. In 2021, Trinamool could retain power in West Bengal but in the process Congress and
Left parties drew blank.
Thus, the BJP that won 18 Lok Sabha seats from West Bengal will now hope to get at least 5-8 seats more in
West Bengal. 
The mandate of Gujarat polls 2022 has many messages. But most of it would be decided by the prism one looks on. 
For BJP and the party’s overwhelming number of admirers – the single biggest message is that the 'Freebies culture' as championed by the AAP could succeed in Delhi or Punjab but cannot do so in Gujarat or elsewhere in the country.
For others, the missive remains the same old cliché – ‘Modi Magic’ still matters.
In Gujarat post-results analyses suggest many factors and good calculations helped BJP.
Unlike 2017, the table has been turned across Saurashtra and all other regions.
For instance in Morbi – where the bridge collapsed and everyone thought this could be decisive, BJP has 
managed to win the seat.

Former MLA Kantilal Shivlal Amrutiya won the seat by a margin of 62,079 votes. He had jumped into the water to save life and the video went viral certainly giving him political dividends. 

Cricketer Ravindra Jadeja's wife Rivaba Jadeja won from the prestigious seat of Jamnagar North.

Similarly, in Surat region, polling in Majura was crucial. BJP's Harsh Ramesh Sanghvi won the seat by a margin of 1,16,675 votes beating his nearest AAP rival PVS Sarma. This segment falls under politically important Navsari Lok Sabha constituency.

Surat East, Surat North and Surat West – all three important seats came to BJP. 
Of course, notwithstanding GST and demonetisation rows, the BJP had done well in 2017 polls in Surat also. 
But in civic body polls in 2022, Surat had thrown a surprise and had given AAP an unexpectedly pleasant result. 

But now in the assembly polls, the balance favoured the saffron party in this diamond and textile hub.

Radhanpur is an assembly constituency in the Patan district in the northern region of Gujarat. BJP had 

replaced former MLA Alpesh Thakor and fielded Lavingji Muljiji Solanki and he could snatch the seat.

AAP candidate could poll only 2560 votes. On the other hand, Alpesh, who was shifted to Gandhinagar South 

could defeat locally key Congress leader Himanshu Patel by a margin of 43,064 votes.

Chhota Udaipur is an assembly constituency in the Chhota Udaipur district in the central region of Gujarat. 

BJP's Rajendrasinh Mohansinh Rathwa, a defector, could win the seat.

Vijaybhai Rameshbhai Patel has grabbed the Dang seat in the tribal belt in southern Gujarat. 

Analysts would say BJP regime’s developmental works punctuating it with innovative measures like Natural Farming has helped the saffron party make better penetration in tribal seats.

 

It goes without stating that Dang region is a unique and perfectly setup region for natural farming where farming can be undertaken without harming nature.

ends