The 'China angle' in Kremlin-inspired crisis in UKraine and also globally

Important questions those need to assessed.

Latest developments suggest, the US and the west are getting 'weakened' by the day.

China and Russia as two countries - separately and at times as strategic partners - will demonstrate great power status on the world stage.

This would appear as a counterbalance the dominance of the US . But there are other geo-political issues as well. 

There is still an apprehension in Beijing that the Russian military adventurism could damage China economically to some extent. 

However, China views the Ukraine situation as a timely distraction that will draw the US away from the Indo-Pacific region. 

As Russia’s biggest trade partner, China has significant investments and financial ties with Russia that will be exposed to the west’s sanctions. Such sanctions most certainly come with an acute pain for many fossil fuel-focused state-owned enterprises.  

Beijing also had good ties with Ukraine and Kyiv is a top trade partner.

China has enjoyed friendly ties with Ukraine, which is a source of grain and military equipment.

However, Beijing will have to consider the balance sheet for this current alignment carefully. If the cost of alignment comes at a far greater price than the actual benefit, Beijing must reach its own conclusion and tread carefully.

Beijing hoped that Russia would offer full diplomatic support to its various global initiatives under a plethora of UN-led platforms, in the context of competition with the US. But Moscow’s current move has made China’s wishes more problematic. Russia’s recklessness serves as a spur for China to rethink its return on its alignment with the Kremlin, and it may wish to minimise the risks associated with Russia’s fraught relations with the west. China may well prepare a discreet course correction to soften its harsh diplomatic rhetoric, and a pathway of less hostile ties with the west to demonstrate its maturity in dealing with a major world crisis.

History does serve as a good lesson for the Chinese Communist party: Nikita Khrushchev withdrew all assistance to support China’s nascent industrial development because Beijing refused to become a junior partner of Moscow in political and military terms in the 1950s. The Sino-Soviet split of the 1950s and 60s took place in a very different world, but its spectre remains alive - 'The Guardian' article 

Nonetheless, Beijing will measure its reaction to Ukraine through the lens of US-China competition. 

To this end, the Ukraine crisis provides two unexpected opportunities for President Xi.