Muzaffarnagar/Baghpat (Uttar Pradesh):
The first phase of polling in UP takes place on Thursday, Feb 10.
The crucial townships in India's most populous state and politically sensitive Baghpat and Muzaffarnagar and adjoining areas go to polling on Feb 10. So does key agrarian seats of Chhaprauli and Barot.
In Chhaprauli segment - a stronghold of Jats and other Hindu communities such as Gujjars, the BJP candidate took out a massive road show on the highway with enthusiastic party workers raising repeatedly 'Yogi Yogi' slogans.
Sahendra Singh is the saffron party nominee from the seat.
In 2017, he had won the seat on RLD ticket and later shifted allegiance to the BJP.
His supporters say - certainly Singh was impressed by the energetic works of Double Engine and hence he had joined BJP as well.
Most Gujjar villagers say their community and also Kashyaps would vote overwhelmingly for the BJP nominee.
In Baghpat, a well know Jat heartland, BJP's nominee is Yogesh Dhama, also a sitting legislator. He is pitted against Nawab Ahmed Hamid, a Muslim. Hamid is a defector into RLD of Jayant Chaudhry from the BSP.
Sanjay Chouhan, a social worker, says the BJP nominee will make it easily as nearly 93,000 Jats would back him as the BJP candidate is also a Jat and has worked in the constituency sincerely.
In 2013 Muzajffarnagar was witness to riots and locals have sad memories
of the time.
Obviously the riots and for that matter Hindu-Muslim relationships are in debate and political
discussions. Who will win Muzaffarnagar and a few adjoining provincial assembly segments this time?
Precised question is on broader sense what will average Muslim voters essentially do in these elections.
Muslims make about 19-20 per cent of state's population and quite a sizable ones in western Uttar Pradesh -
that is going to the polls on Feb 10 and during the second phase of polling on Feb 14. Moradabad and Rampur have around 50 percent Muslims.
More candid question that begs for authentic answer is whether the Muslims will vote for one party or divide
their votes among several parties.
Of course, it is a foregone conclusion among political pundits that
Muslims will never (or not) vote for the pro-Hindutva saffron party.
But this may not be true.
In Baghpat, a Muslim pharmacist says he and his family will back the BJP.
"It is wrong to assume that Muslims don't vote for the BJP," he says.
"The inclusive development agenda of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and monk-turned-politician
Yogi Adityanath, present chief minister, is the chief trump card. The BJP will win hands down in many segments that go to the polls on Feb 10 and Feb 14," says shopkeeper Jai Vishwakarma, an OBC.
He spells out the mood among non Yadav OBCs. This is a significant issue as non Yadav OBCs and others are apprehensive of return of Goondaism reign if SP-RLD comes to power.
In 2013 riots, more than 60 people were killed and over 40,000 displaced. during the 2013. The
socialists Samajwadi Party led by young chief minister Akhilesh Yadav was in power in the state.
Many commoners in Muzaffarnagar and adjoining poorly maintained
hamlets say they will not vote for the socialist leader or the RLD because Yadav's tenure as Chief Minister was marred by major law and order issues and communal mayhem.
However, Samajwadi Party does not have a candidate in Muzaffarnagar. It has left its alliance partner Rastriya Lok Dal (RLD)
to contest from Muzaffarnagar. RLD has good support base among agrarian community.
The year-long farmers' agitation is also being discussed in this region for obvious reasons.
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