The proposed meeting of full council of ministers on May 21 comvened by Prime Minister Narendra Modi will come shortly after BJP's much appreciated strong performance in the elections in West Bengal and Assam.
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government has returned in Puducherry as well.
Well, the Prime Minister has periodically held meetings of the full Council of Ministers to discuss governance priorities and policy implementation earlier on a few occasion. However, the May 21 meeting is being closely watched due to the timing and the ongoing speculation over possible changes in the Union Cabinet.
The Cabinet expansion and reshuffle could take place in the second week of June. The Modi 3.0 dispensation was sworn in on June 10, 2024 when the general election mandate had given a much shocking reduced number of MPs to the Lotus party.
The May 21 meet if takes place according to plans assumes a special political significance as the politics of India has undertaken a sea change since then. While the opposition parties could not capitalise on their pleasantly surprising gains in Lok Sabha polls; in contrast the 'quick corrective' steps taken by PM Modi-Amit Shah duo and other BJP and Sanghparivar strategists now gives the saffron outfit mega advantages in key states such as West Bengal, Maharashtra, Haryana and a few other states.
Moreover, the cabinet reshuffle is likely to to be linked to coming elections in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh. There is already a buzz from Punjab BJP leaders including Sunil Jakhar -- if West Bengal could be saffronized why not Punjab.
Raghav Chadha and his colleagues' shift to the BJP in the run up to the polls in Bengal has only added more spice to the speculation industry.
In the context of UP, a few ministers may be dropped and assigned political assignment in the key northern state that sends 80 MPs to Lok Sabha. The BJP's performance in 2024 in UP despite Ram Mandir was pathetic and the tally fell short to Samajwadi Party. Worse, the talk was about internal sabotage and discomfort among multiple players in the corridors of power vis-a-vis ticket distribution. The defeat of BJP in Ayodhya seat was a shocker and this was largely attributed to fauly policy in ticket distribution.
There was also 'unhappiness' among RSS leaders and the then BJP president J P Nadda's comments that the BJP can do well on its own was highly damaging. While the neo-Hindu unity is a prize catch for the BJP from two eastern states of West Bengal and Assam; in Uttar Pradesh - the real challenge will be in as regard the caste management. A possible one or two ministers from UP taking care of caste factor is not ruled out.
The party faces a big time challenge in Manipur which too is slated to go to polls by March 2027 along with Punjab, UP, Uttarakhand and Goa. The spate of violence started in this northeastern state in 2023 still continues.
It has taken a more complex turn because a brief spell of President's Rule, appointment of a Amit Shah confidant as Governor and installation of a new chief minister Khemchand replacing N Biren Singh has so far achieved nothing.
The Rajya Sabha polls are due in Manipur in June and should Biren Singh be brought to Delhi and what will be the impact remains a question - whose answer only lies in the womb of time.
The Bengal mandate has perhaps answered many questions which were once considered tough riddles. There is a magnificent trophy. The complex electorate of the eastern state has for the first time in many years voted for a Double Engine government. Since 1970s, the state had been voting for parties which is 'against Delhi'. The same voters have outwitted the Left, humbled the Congress, and now went for Narendra Modi and Hindu unity.
In political sense, this did not come easily.
The unprecedented BJP victory in West Bengal is a seismic political event even in the Hindutva camp.
Should it now 'reward' Amit Shah with the title Deputy Prime Minister ?
It can then resolve the dispute - after Modi who!!
It may give signals to Nagpur and Lucknow that it would be wise to play the BJP's
'MY' card - the Modi-Yogi phenomenon yet again.
Will the reshuffle also accord any Lok Bhavan or ambassadorial responsibility to veteran Rajnath Singh ?
For Team Modi, winning West Bengal was certainly an important milestone. Now the cabinet reshuffle and polls in UP and managing troubles in Manipur before 2029 would reshape the political arithmetic of India.
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