L K Advani might have been blamed for BJP's debacle in 2009 elections. Dr Manmohan Singh might have been given all credit. The Congress spin maters might have thanked NREGA as a game-changer.
Closer scrutiny in various quarters now reveal that "cleaver Tweaking" by the Congress-led UPA I and its connivance with the Election Commission had also played a key role in deciding the outcome of the 2009 polls that not only brought back UPA to power.
The polls that year took Congress tally cross - 200 marks.
Here are few examples:
In Maharashtra, Thane was a prestigious Lok Sabha seat adjacent to Mumbai and several key constituencies of Mumbai. Thane had 32 lakh voters and it was a very strong Shiv Sena bastion.
That constituency was 'tweaked' into as many as four parliamentary constituencies. Rewards were handsome for Congress. In 2009 Lok Sabha polls; of these four seats - three came to the Congress and allies kitty. Closer analyses will reveal that the Delimitation exercise of 2008 ultimately helped Congress to "gain 61 seats" in 2009 than what it had won in 2004.
Notably, such a huge jump for Congress had come earlier only on two occasions --
1971 -- when Indira Gandhi could help the party increase its tally from 283 to 352. That means it was a jump of 69 seats. The second such leap forward came in 1984 - post Indira assassination and anti-Sikh carnage -- now the jump was 352 to 415. The jump was by as many as 63 seats.
So in terms of seats increase - the sympathy wave for Rajiv Gandhi was not much in concrete sense. The increase in number of seats was just 63 across India.
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Post Delimitation; the Congress did well in Rajasthan in 2009 polls. In Uttar Pradesh, the Congress jump was significant and even pleasantly surprising for Congress -- it could win 21 seats.
Tweaking was done in such a manner that three new seats were carved out and it helped the Congress increase its tally.
In 2004, from the reserved seats (SC) across India - the Congress had won 17 seats. In 2009, the tally jumped to 33. For ST seats too -- the seats jumped from 14 (2004) to 31 in 2009.
In Uttar Pradesh yet again, the Bulandshahr Lok Sabha constituency was officially designated as a reserved seat for candidates belonging to the Scheduled Caste (SC) category during the 2008 delimitation exercise.
The political reason was that otherwise Rae Bareily had to be kept reserved and thereby Congress party's first family could not contest from here.
The Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat is still an unreserved (general) constituency and was not reserved during the 2008 delimitation exercise.
The constituency has historically only been reserved for a Scheduled Caste (SC) candidate once, which was during the 1962 general elections.
In the northern state, even the Congress leaders were surprised to win as many 21 seats in 2009 polls. This remains one of the best performances of the Congress in that state in recent times. As a result, the spin masters started believing the Congress may 'revive' in India's largest state. The reality was different.
In 2012 assembly polls; the Samajwadi Party registered a convincing win and Akhilesh Yadav became chief minister and in 2014 == the Modi wave beat all that and the BJP was home in Delhi with UP giving the lotus party the record 71 seats.
Delimitation in India is the process of redrawing parliamentary and assembly constituency boundaries to ensure equal representation based on population changes. It's now scheduled for post-2026.
In the political circle now it is being said that the Congress was desperate to sabotage the Women Quota Bill earlier this year chiefly because it is 'scared' of the Delimitation exercise. The grand old party is apprehensive of BJP's intent and it is not without good reasons.
The Lotus party has used the Delimitation exercise smartly in Assam for assemblies and has in the process able to reap the benefits too.
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| Manmohan Singh : Won 2009 polls and tricks and tweaks !! |
The 2008 delimitation exercise, which redrew parliamentary and assembly constituencies across India based on the 2001 census, is widely considered to have provided significant political advantages to the Congress party in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections.
The 2008 delimitation exercise was the first, and thus far only, major redrawing of boundaries since 1973, making its impact on the 2009 and subsequent elections highly significant.
Now come to Kerala 2026 assembly polls.
It's said, the most striking and favourable outcome for Congress and UDF of the 2008 delimitation was the sharp increase in assembly seats in northern Kerala districts, especially those with significant Muslim populations.
Malappuram saw the highest jump, with its seats increasing from 12 to 16 -- a gain of 4 seats.
The Muslim-majority population of approximately 70.24 per cent is much ahead in Malappuram with Hindus at 27.60 per cent and Christians at 1.98 per cent.
Kozhikode also saw its seats rise from 12 to 13.
Wayanad’s representation went up from 2 seats to 3, adding another seat to the northern bloc. Kannur also gained, moving from 10 seats to 11.
In contrast, the southern districts of Kerala, historically marked by lower population growth but significant Hindu and Christian presence, experienced a reduction in assembly seats.
Alappuzha lost two seats. Kottayam and Thrissur also lost one each.
The Congress is that political party which likes to draw benefits from all political games and tweaking of laws. But when it comes to other parties; it suddenly wakes up from Rip Van Winkle slumber, ....
Hence, for Rahul Gandhi -- Kerala mandate is genuine but the poll results of Assam and West Bengal were rigged.
ends
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