Gujarat swears by Hindutva, Focus shifts to Christian states in NE :::::: BJP beats Congress best of 149 in 1985

Nonetheless, even after the loss of Himachal Pradesh and a recent defeat in local elections in Delhi, Verma said that nationally the BJP remained in a “formidable position”.

Even if at state level the BJP faces some issues going forward, when Modi is on the ticket, given his level of popularity, he pulls the BJP up nationally. - The Guardian   

Gujarat swears by Hindutva, Focus shifts to Christian states in NE

Many Nagas or even Meghalaya leaders prefer BJP hoping to accelerate development

New Delhi 

Unprecedented success for the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Hindutva laboratory, Gujarat, is bound to have its mega impact in national politics.

The 'Moditva phenomenon' was at its best in the just concluded polls in Gujarat. Congress did well to wrest power again in Himachal Pradesh. But with a wafer-thin majority Congress will face trouble ensuring stability.

Focus will gradually shift to northeastern states where elections are due in two Christian-dominated states of Meghalaya and Nagaland and also in another BJP-ruled Tripura -- which also accounts for a substantial number of tribal and Christian voters.

The just concluded polls and next year's elections in three northeastern states and also Mizoram and three agrarian states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and also in Karnataka will set the ball rolling for 2024 general elections,

Jubilant BJP leaders should send a bouquet to Arvind Kejriwal for contesting and campaigning hard in Gujarat. They will also thank Rahul Gandhi for staying away from Gujarat.

These might be a combo -- a delicious recipe for the voters to embrace the Moditva much more enthusiastically preparing ground for 2024 polls when Hindu voter's folk hero Namo will try for a hat-trick at the national level.

In Nagaland, doubts persist whether polls will be held on time or it would be the default pension for some players in the corridors of power at Kohima.

But ensuing polls are more than serious in Meghalaya. In Tripura, which was once a communist forte,

the saffron party will hope for an easier contest with rivals Congress and CPI-M marginalised.

A new tribal-based party may make a difference, but it cannot win more than 20 seats.

In Meghalaya, defection games will start soon in a big way. Three MLAs who resigned could rush to

Delhi anytime later this week to embrace BJP.

The BJP’s mega promise is to provide a corruption-free government focused on people’s socio economic development. 

The hilly state of nearly 3 million people has 75 percent Christian population and yet the BJP has plans 

to garner votes. BJP's national vice president and in-charge Meghalaya is a Naga veteran M Chuba Ao. 

He is confident of a much better show this time as compared to two-seats win in 2018.

Nalin Kohli then BJP in-charge of Meghalaya is now in-charge of Nagaland and he has famously inked

the 20:40 formula pact probably with much enthusiasm. He was pleasing his bosses and helping a new found

friend in the hills of Northern Angami.

But in Northern Angami II, BJP mandal workers pledge to sweat it out.

The NPP of Conrad Sangma in Meghalaya is faced with an anti incumbency and a series of corruption 

allegations. Money flows during election time in Meghalaya, 'some people say' as goes the cliche about

Fox News channel.

The Congress was in power for 15 years till it was ousted in 2018; but the grand old party has lost veterans

such as Mukul Sangma to Trinamool and the party base has crumbled too.

In Baptist-majority Nagaland, the BJP shares power in a coalition led by NDPP and does not even

mind playing second fiddle. 

Christians, who make up 90 percent of Nagaland’s 1.95 million people, may want to give a pleasant surprise to

the BJP. The Central Nagaland and especially Mokokchung district is witnessing a pro-saffron wave despite

lackluster performance by state unit president Temjen Ima Along.

Nagas are at crossroads, look toward a Solution for peace and extortion-free life. Many Nagas see merits in

the pro-Hindutva BJP presuming this will accelerate their development. 

Congress is nowhere in the battle scene and the NPF is also a victim of its own power-politics shenanigans. 

In states where non-Hindus are politically decisive, the BJP always smartly employed a singular political strategy of 

aligning with regional parties. Things are changing a bit in Meghalaya. But in Mizoram, the saffron party

does not mind as long as the Zoramthanga-led MNF continues in office.

In Meghalaya, the BJP is reportedly also working to attract “non-Christian local tribal groups” who continue 

to practice age-old aboriginal customs and socio-religious practices.

ends 

 Congress tally drops from 77 to 17, AAP - only 5 

(Three decades of power in Gujarat, it was still a litmus test for the BJP. A lethal combination of Modi Magic and a simpleton CM Bhupendra Patel -- calling himself Common Man - has done all the difference. BJP wins record best. In Himachal Pradesh, with a wafer-thin majority Congress will face trouble ensuring stability.) 

 

New Delhi/Ahmedabad

 

In 2002, Narendra Modi was impossible to ignore. In 2022 -- twenty years after - he is still impossible to ignore and in the Indian sub continent's politics for the next few years, Modi will never be out of the news. And that too as a catalyst of development and a strong proponent of Hindutva-brand of nationalistic politics. A jubilant Gujarat Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel should send a bouquet to Arvind Kejriwal for contesting and campaigning hard in Gujarat; he must also thank Rahul Gandhi for staying away from Gujarat.

 

These might have made a combo -- a delicious recipe for the Gujarat voters to embrace the Moditva much more enthusiastically preparing ground for 2024 parliamentary polls when their favourite folk hero Namo will try for a hat-trick at the national level. 

While analysts and ivory tower TV experts focused on Patidar voters and other intellectual analyses like giving hyped importance to the AAP factor, the ruling BJP focused on women empowerment and this section either Patidars or non-Patidars changed the entire game. 

A crucial message from the 2022 mandate both in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh also suggests that 'Revdi' -- freebies culture --- succeeds in Delhi or Punjab but it cannot do so in Gujarat or in the rest of India. Therefore the rhetoric assertion is - Modi's Gujarat and the 'new India' also means giving importance to talent, skills and labour. Everyone may not agree but this new growing phenomenon has slowly started to discard the politics of dynastic rights and preferences, say BJP booth workers. The BJP is certainly more than delighted and this will give them a major advantage for 2024 polls in terms of Modi's magical vote gathering power.

The just concluded polls and next year's elections in three north eastern states Nagaland, Meghalaya, Tripura and also Mizoram and three agrarian states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and also in Karnataka will set the ball rolling for 2024 general elections that will decide the fate of nationalists, BJP.
It will also decide the outcome of the politics of the likes of Chandrababu Naidu, K Chandrashekhar Rao, Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal and even Rahul Gandhi. 

Many BJP workers said one simple message from Gujarat in 2022 perhaps is that the governance should be people-centric. It is also important to develop a culture of hard work and help vulnerable sections like women. Days of free lunch for some and government Babus, their wives, children, dogs and cronies are over. If at all, there are some, these too would fade away soon.

Two decades back, In 2002, 'India Today' wrote --- "Narendra Damodardas Modi shocks India. And how. Look at him, look at him up close. For so long, he was just another politician. Then one day, he was just another Chief Minister. Today, he is just Modi. What's in a surname?" Some people could still write these lines; and wonder in awe on the magic of Moditva.

 

  

AAP myth explodes:

 

The polls in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh were major setback for AAP which could  win only six seats in Gujarat after the hoopla. It also scored a big zero in Himachal Pradesh.

No sooner the results came in, social media postings went viral. Some sounded caustic but realistic -- Freebies - the 'revdi' culture could work in Delhi and Punjab; but it does not work elsewhere. Thus, the big - but over ambitious' dream of Kejriwal and his colleague Manish Sisodia to emerge as major opposition leaders at the national level for 2024 battle has come a cropper. The Aam Aadmi Party, which was basking with the MCD win, has been once again told by the faceless Indian electorate that it was still a Delhi-based party. And Punjab story could be seen as a mix of an accidental win and an outcome of a catastrophic way of handling things by the Congress.

 

Percentage wise break up of results both in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh is also crucial. The BJP vote share was a record 53.03 -- a significant jump from 49.05% in 2017 in Gujarat. For Congress, it was a nosedive fall from 41.44% five years back to 27.04 percent. AAP gained 12.80 percent and hence the analysts have been proved right that Kejriwal's party has damaged the grand old party the most. The Congress drop in number of seats was stupendous and worst in its record for Gujarat -- 77 to a humble 19. But it was still too early to say that Gujarat polity has opened a door for a third front.

 

Never in the past too, any third front could emerge as a viable force in Gujarat.

Shankersinh Vaghela launched Rashtriya Janata Party (RJP) and Keshubhai Patel floated Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP). In 1998, RPP had won only four seats. The GPP fought the 2012 polls and won only two seats. The AAP’s tally is slightly better at 6. In 2017, assembly election, the AAP contested 29 seats and could manage only 0.10 per cent of the vote share.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stability and Defection:

 

How things pan out in Himachal Pradesh vis-a-vis formation of the new government will be interesting to see. The Congress has emerged as the single largest party and has crossed the majority mark by winning 39 seats. But it is too close to the magic figure of 35. The BJP has won 26 and if three others support it; the tally will be 29 -- and this also is too close to the 34-35 mark.

 

In terms of vote shares, notwithstanding the hype created by Left liberal English media and the fact that Himachal is next door neighbour of Punjab, the AAP could bag only 1.08 percent of votes. For Congress the vote share in 2022 was 43.6 and that is slightly more than 41.7 of 2017. The BJP came much closer to the saffron party winning 43.3 percent but that was a drop of about 4.5 per cent -- from 48.8% of 2017. This made all the difference in the number of seats.

 

Five years back, BJP had won 44 and the Congress had managed to win only 21.

 

 

## Inset:

 

$$ BJP humbled AAP’s so called chief ministerial face Isudan Gadhvi rather convincingly. Ayar Mulubhai Hardasbhai Bera polled 61,781 percent of votes while Isudan Gadhvi of AAP finished second with 44, 589 votes and Vikrambhai Arjanbhai Maadam of Congress finished third with 36,345 votes.
 
 
$$  For BJP, 155 haul is a record. Madhavsinh Solanki had managed to win 149 in the 182-member assembly in 1985 when politics was hugely dominated by the Congress. The BJP's best performance so far was in 2002 when it won 127 and that had elevated Narendra Modi as a formidable player in state and national politics.

 

 

 

Ends