Hard work, planning and calculated risks see BJP record win in Gujarat

Of course, urbanised hubs like Ahmedabad and Vadodara would have ample ground support for the BJP which originally has strengths in these areas. Elections were important in tribal seats too and here again BJP’s development offensive has done the trick.
 

Vijaybhai Rameshbhai Patel has grabbed the Dang seat in tribal belt in southern Gujarat. Analysts would say BJP regime’s developmental works punctuating it with innovative measures like Natural Farming has helped the saffron party make better penetration in tribal seats. 

 

It goes without stating that Dang region is a unique and perfectly setup region for natural farming where farming can be undertaken without harming nature. Natural farming has no restrictions. No artificial components are used. The only thing a farmer has to do is ensure a healthy breed of cattle which produces eight kilograms of dung and about the same quantity of urine a day. 

The state government has also announced a financial aid of Rs 31 crore under 'Sampurna Rasayan Mukt Dang Jilla' to be distributed in Dang to ensure that the district becomes completely free of chemical pesticides and fertilisers.

Mansa and Unjha fall into BJP basket

Amit Shah might have over the years emerged as a key leader at the national level – the virtual No. 2 --- running his Home ministry and also the BJP. But in the 2017 Gujarat assembly elections, both the Unjha and Mansa seats were won by the Congress. In fact, BJP had lost Mansa even in 2012. 

Unjha constituency has the well known Vadnagar , Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hometown. Vadnagar falls under Unjha.

BJP’s Kiritkumar Keshavlal Patel could win Unjha by a margin of 51,468 votes. In Mansa, BJP’s J.S. Patel won the seat with a margin of 39,266 votes.

In 2017, Congress candidate Asha Patel won the Unjha seat. Asha Patel later defected to the BJP.

$$ BJP humbled AAP’s so called chief ministerial face Isudan Gadhvi rather convincingly. Ayar Mulubhai Hardasbhai Bera polled 61,781 percent of voteswhile Isudan Gadhvi of AAP finished second with 44, 589 votes and Vikrambhai Arjanbhai Maadam of Congress finished third with 36,345 votes.

 

 

$$  For BJP, 155 haul is a record. Madhavsinh Solanki had managed to win 149 in the 182-member assembly in 1985 when politics was hugely dominated by the Congress. The BJP's best performance so far was in 2002 when it won 127 and that had elevated Narendra Modi as a formidable player in state and national politics.

Quotes: It is a victory of the party's double-engine development agenda. The massive verdict reflects people's trust in Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP. It is a victory of the agenda of development that the party has carried out in the state," Gujarat BJP spokesperson Yamal Vyas said.

The mandate of Gujarat polls 2022 has many messages. But most of it would be decided by the prism one looks on. For BJP and the party’s overwhelming number of admirers and most often called ‘Modi bhakt’ – the single biggest message is that the 'Freebies culture' as championed by the AAP could succeed in Delhi or Punjab but cannot do so in Gujarat or elsewhere in the country.

For others, the missive remains the same old cliché – ‘Modi Magic’ still matters. Another important message is that the Hindutva coupled with the Moditva phenomenon and BJP’s caste calculations and wooing of women voters were crucial. Thus, the results in the ultimate analysis were both unprecedented and probably unthought of even. In September 2021, the party strategists Amit Shah and Bhupender Yadav had landed in Ahmedabad and order replacing of the then CM Vijay Rupani. BJP banked on Bhupendra Patel – a simpleton and a first-time legislator and the battle was perhaps half won. 

Analysts and ivory tower TV experts focused on Patidar voters and other analyses like giving hyped importance to the ‘AAP factor’; the ruling BJP focused on women empowerment and this section either Patidars or non-Patidars changed the entire game. Another missive that should not be missed is AAP’s entry into Gujarat fray in effect helped the BJP register a record win of 150 plus as Arvind Kejriwal’s party eat up Congress votes.

As per EC data at 1730 hours, Congress is likely to win 17 seats and BJP 156; and AAP should win only five. 

The BJP vote share was a record 52.5 -- a jump from 49.05% in 2017. For Congress, it was a nosedive fall from 41.44% five years back to 27.3 percent. AAP gained 12.9 percent and hence the analysts have been proved right that Kejriwal's party has damaged the grand old party the most. The Congress drop in number of seats was stupendous and worst in its record for Gujarat -- 77 to a humble 17. But it was still too early to say that Gujarat polity has opened a door for a third front.

Congress misses the formal recognition as opposition party in the state assembly just as it has been missing such an honour for two consecutive term in 2014 and 2019.

Never in the past too, any third front could emerge as a viable force in Gujarat.

Shankersinh Vaghela launched Rashtriya Janata Party (RJP) and Keshubhai Patel floated Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP). In 1998, RPP had won only four seats. The GPP fought the 2012 polls and won only two seats. 

The AAP’s tally is slightly better at 5. In 2017, assembly election, the AAP contested 29 seats and could manage only 0.10 per cent of the vote share. So, simply put AAP is a gainer though in a small manner and biggest loser is Rahul Gandhi – whose Bharat Jodo Yatra will be again questioned.

In Congress win of 77 seats in 2017 – there were significant takeaways. Saurashtra is always an important region of 182-assembly seat Gujarat polls. This region has a total of 48 polls and despite the 'Narendra Modi phenomenon' and Gujarat's Asmita (pride) cards, this bloc has always created hurdles. But BJP handled the challenges very well this time. The Saurashtra region encompasses 11 districts; and had made all the difference in 2017 outcome when BJP had lost as many as 13 seats from Saurashtra region. But this time the table has been turned across Saurashtra and all other regions.

For instance in Morbi – where the bridge collapsed and everyone thought this could be decisive, BJP has managed to win the seat.

Former MLA Kantilal Shivlal Amrutiya won the seat by a margin of 62,079 votes. He had reportedly jumped into the water to save life and the video went viral certainly giving him political dividends. Cricketer Ravindra Jadeja's wife Rivaba Jadeja won from the prestigious seat of Jamnagar North.

In other words. BJP’s calculation and gamble paid.  

Similarly, in Surat region, poll in Majura was crucial. BJP's Harsh Ramesh Sanghvi won the seat by a margin of 1,16,675 votes beating his nearest AAP rival PVS Sarma. This segment falls under politically important Navsari Lok Sabha constituency.

Surat East, Surat North and Surat West – all three important seats came to BJP. Of course, notwithstanding GST and demonetisation rows, the BJP had done well in 2017 polls in Surat also. But in civic body polls in 2022, Surat had thrown a surprise and had given AAP an unexpectedly pleasant result. But now in the assembly polls, the balance favoured the saffron party in this diamond and textile hubs. 

Radhanpur is an assembly constituency in the Patan district in the northern region of Gujarat. BJP had replaced former MLA Alpesh Thakor and fielded Lavingji Muljiji Solanki and he could snatch the seat by beating Congress nominee Raghubhai Merajbhai Desai. AAP candidate could poll only 2560 votes. On the other hand, Alpesh, who was shifted to Gandhinagar South could defeat locally key Congress leader Himanshu Patel by a margin of 43,064 votes. 

Chhota Udaipur is an assembly constituency in the Chhota Udaipur district in the central region of Gujarat. BJP's Rajendrasinh Mohansinh Rathwa, a defector, could win the seat. 

Central Gujarat also includes Vadodara and established pro-BJP regions such as Ahmedabad. In 2017, the BJP had won eight out of 10 seats in Vadodara and as many as 15 out of 21 in Ahmedabad. This time it is much better.  Congress candidate Imran Khedawala, a sitting MLA, could retain the Muslim-dominated Jamalpur Khadia seat in Ahmedabad. Another Congress seat in Ahmedabad – Danilimda also came again to Congress kitty with Shailesh Manubhai Parmar retaining the seat. Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel won from Ghatlodia yet again as he had done so in 2017.