My experience with politics and politicians suggest one election outcome is certainly not due to one or two reasons. Even the impact of an election is not just on one or two fronts. Like any big tremor, the fallout of some elections is often huge.
The BJP obviously after the 'self-styled self-goal' in West Bengal have to overcome some of the shortcomings and get ready to deal with the new challenges. Raising the stakes so high actually united Muslims behind Mamata Banerjee. And in the process, the big jump in numbers from 3 to 77 is not giving Narendra Modi the credit he deserves.
Some of the challenges for Namo now too will be 'out of box' and could be inspired by frustrated opposition parties - who have started showing some silliness and madness. But there is a pattern in all that.
Arvind Kejriwal telecasting his brief speech from a 'closed door' meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Jharkhand counterpart Hemnat Soren's tweet to mock at Modi after the PM had held tele talks with him shows things may soon adapt to the 'new normal'.
Modi’s style of style of functioning and decision-making, which concentrates every power on himself and his trusted team, especially the PMO could be a serious issue.
That’s is why Subramanian Swamy is asking Modi to allow decision-making outside the PMO. He has already mooted the name of Nitin Gadkari to head the Covid crisis team.
Whether RSS leadership is backing Dr Swamy's suggestion will be a too far-fetched question. But Gadkari is a former BJP president chosen by the Sanghparivar head in 2009 and is thus a man trusted by RSS leadership.
Besides the politics of Bengal, or the great mistakes therein; the ongoing second wave crisis has brought in health disaster with millions dying. There is political and administrative chaos as most hospitals have almost collapsed and there is also impending economic disaster on hand.
Modi's mood swings are also weak spots. He does not have many friends among opposition leaders to build up a consensus. Rather, he has enemies within his party too.
May be too early but Knives could be out !
But having said all these, what is his asset is his "personal popularity" among the masses that is still shielding him.
Now taking a closer look at things, one by one! Firstly, why two Chief Ministers have to do something unusual ? One, it gives them some publicity in social media and of course a few select English newspapers, Kolkata-tabloids and select websites.
Everyone gets a sadistic pleasure that Modi has been presented in poor light.
The Congress has even justified Hemant Soren's tweet.
Also note when Kejriwal telecast his speech out of turn knowing very well he was in a closed door meeting with other Chief Ministers and PM, the intellectuals and proponents of free-speech and liberal media etc kept mum. Of course, a few Congress leaders made only a customary criticism and it was let go!
The proof that there could be a pattern is also reflected in the fact that Kejriwal played politics - made use of a good platform - but quickly said sorry once PM rapped him. This means Delhi CM knew it was wrong.
Secondly, Soren has again done it. Both are from smaller regional outfits.
The 'new normal' for BJP actually started in Maharashtra when in a dramatic development, within days of elections Shiv Sena dumped the ally and embraced Sharad Pawar's gambit and forged alliance with Congress and NCP.
More than opportunism and Uddhav Thackeray's personal ambition, the big story was the BJP ought to be careful with allies also. Forget morality as long as it goes against Namo. Of course, the BJP also has often treated allies differently. At least 'different' from the manner Atal Bihari Vajpayee used to do.
Late NCP leader D P Tripathi once said, despite all the power in his hands, the BJP under Vajpayee gave one or two Governors from among the NDA constituents. He also gave Lok Sabha Speaker's post to TDP and Shiv Sena and later deputy speaker's post to Akali Dal.
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| Weak Congress leads to strong regionalism |
Now, Bengal polls. Senior party leader and a former Governor Tathagata Roy, also a brother senior Trinamool leader Saugata Roy.
Tatagatha Roy now says, the "state leadership" in Bengal were "just clueless" on how to fight the elections. He has targeted Kailash Vijarvargiya, Dilip Ghosh and two RSS men Arvind Menon and Shiv Prakash.
Importantly, he says, "Now I apprehend two exoduses from the state BJP. First of course is of the garbage who came from Trinamool and will now go back. The second may be the old Karyakartas of BJP. Unless they see signs of reform within the party they will also leave."
Both the possible scenarios are possible. But his hard-hitting verdict "....And that will be the end of the party in West Bengal" is serious. Roy has been summoned to Delhi - and not without reasons.
Now another impact of West Bengal poll outcome needs to be analysed is Himanta Biswa Sarma's personal ambitions in neighbouring Assam. He finds the leadership 'little weakened' atthis juncture and has built up pressure to become Chief Minister. Some promises were apparently made to him by Amit Shah - as in the case of Uddhav Thackeray as Sena leaders had claimed.
Incumbent Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal is a low profile tribal leader and is a turncoat himself who came from AGP.
While he is solely banking on the high command and lacks political muscle flexing a trademark style of Himanta, a former Congressman; on the other hand the Himanta camp is claiming at least 40 of the 60 BJP MLAs may back him easily. So would nine AGP and also Bodo members. The Congress is also waiting in the wings for BJP to make mistakes.
With its 29 MLAS, Congress and its ally AUDF 16 seats, they would be too keen to capture power if Himanta can break the saffron party. Having lost in Kerala and Assam, Rahul Gandhi is waiting for some miracles to salvage his image.
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| What awaits Assam now ? |
The BJP needs to be careful because in neighbouring Tripura also a bunch of ex-Congress and ex-Trinamool Congress members would be too happy to see the back of Chief Minister Biplab Deb.
"For all practical purposes, the Prime Minister is all at sea. A full lockdown would lead to further economic disaster. If not, there is health disaster. But in the absence of any action, the Covid-19 fatalities are increasing, so he has to reconcile with both the disasters," says Tushar Bhadra, an analyst in Varanasi.
Ignoring Modi’s appeal to consider a lockdown as a “last option,” several states, including many BJP-ruled states and city administrations, have already announced lockdowns.
However, such challenges are not new for him. A crisis is the biggest test of leadership, he knows it well. The Prime Minister is also a quick learner and is known for taking drastic corrective steps.
The state assembly elections in four states and one UT - did not have one common thread. In fact, there was a unique element from every state, making it significant on the role the regional parties may again hope to play. Remember the 1990s - more so because Congress remains a weak party.
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| Kohima: BJP facing oreganisational rebellion |
The 'responsibility' to take on Modi in 2024 will be with regional players. To start with Mamata will be ambitious no doubt. But what about Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati provided they do good in 2022 battle in March.
ends
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