Arithmetic and chemistry of Bengal politics: 'Demography is Destiny’ -- 70 Muslim seats were with Didi even before polling

'Demography is Destiny’: Muslim Brotherhood helps Mamata win Bengal

70 Muslim seats were with Didi even before polling 

Unlike Punjab, there would be Bengali ‘refugees’ from East Pakistan who had landed in Calcutta in 1947-48 and died after four-five decades still without a house of their own. This was hardly the case with people crossing over to Delhi and parts of north India from West Pakistan. 

Fast pace to circa 2020.

West Bengal minister for Mass Education and Library Services, Siddiqullah Chowdhury, wasted no time and said that ten persons who were arrested by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) from West Bengal and Kerala for their alleged link to a terror module of Al-Qaeda were "innocent." 

Still raising the issue of 'minority appeasement' was wrong or even sinful - so think 'Sickular' intellectuals and Bhadralok in Kolkata. So much appealing and convincing is Kolkata's influence on people's mindset vis-a-vis Muslim appeasement that few years of stay in 'City of Joy' have often converted die-hard supporters of 'Hindu cause' from Rajasthan or northeast into strong proponents of Mamata Banerjee's 'Khela hobey' school of thought.

Partition: Mayhem was real 

Politics or the outcome of the electoral process do not shape up in a day. History and contemporary sociology are key factors too. Thus analysing a verdict would require taking a closer look at multiple aspects. 

The Hindu voters' strength did not help BJP in Kolkata, Howrah and Hooghly. In Howrah, despite 73 per cent Hindu population, all 16 seats went to TMC mainly because of Muslim consolidation.

Similarly, Kolkata's 11 seats went to TMC despite 76.6 percent Hindu population. In Hooghly, BJP managed to win four out of 18 as 82.89 percent Hindu population stood divided. But around 15 percent Muslims came together as a bloc.

Do words fail this headline ?

In Paschim Medinipur, the Mamata-led outfit managed 13 seats out of 15 despite 86.52 per cent of voters wereHindus. In Purba Medinipur, however, out of 16 seats, BJP's share was 7 as against 9 of Trinamool Congress. 

"I don't follow Hindu rituals became a fashion statement' -- I have relatives of this variety of jokers

The Bhadralok might have let down the BJP poll managers. But for saffron party, the battle was always pretty tough. The ‘chemistry of Bengal politics’, for all practical purposes and historical legacies, always put the BJP on back foot, as was the case with the Bharatiya Jana Sangh and Hindu Mahasabha.

And hence the arithmetic failed. 

There is more to it. Gradual indoctrination by the Leftists beginning from 1947-48 almost made Bengali Hindus forget – the real reason of being rendered homeless in East Pakistan and worst even the ethnic cleansing. They ran after ‘chakri (jobs) and almost gave up the resolve of protecting Hindu identities.

Dilip Ghosh, state unit president, understands these well and so he says, the causes for failing to reach the target will be analysed minutely. “But it is true, we won 26 times more seats than we had in 2016”, he said referring to 3 to77 leap in BJP’s tally.   

Once these issues were understood in their totality, the BJP banked on Trinamool turncoats presuming sitting members and more importantly leaders who have contested earlier will bring some dividends. 

Hindutva and Bengali identity: 

The term ‘Hindutva’ to intellectuals and others had its origin from Veer Savarkar. This is partly true.

It actually first came from Bengal only; 1892 to be precise from writer Chandranath Bose when he penned a book titled ‘Hindutva’. Savarkar of course popularised it with his work in 1923 and thereafter.

But various factors have contributed in making the word a symbol of so called ‘communalism’ and even ‘hate’ in West Bengal. This misconception was only pushed further during the freedom movement – a period that also coincided with the rise of Anglicised Bhadralok.

This group the ‘Anglicised Bhadralok’ took pride in translating modernity in a close proximity to western thoughts.

    

After partition and country’s independence, the Leftists took on a job, they are best at – spread falsehood.

The Bharatiya Jana Sangh and Hindu Mahasabha politics around that time revolved around certain different yardsticks. There was a failure to make Bengali Hindus a consolidated bloc – forget politics and elections.

Issues like food security and land pattas were ignored. Unlike Punjab, there would be Bengali ‘refugees’ from East Pakistan who had landed in Calcutta in 1947-48 and died after four-five decades still without a house of his own. This was never the case with people crossing over to Delhi and parts of north India from West Pakistan.

Delhi’s Lajpat Nagar-Bhogal belt is hub of those rendered homeless from Lahore, Karachi and other regions. On the contrary to what happened to Bengali refugees in West Bengal; the same lot who moved northwards found Delhi’s Chittaranjan Park.  Some went to Assam and other parts of the region including Shillong.

Here came the communists’ role. Firstly, on the day of Direct Action when mayhem was unleashed on Hindus at the call of Muslim League, the united Communist Party of India (CPI) issued an ambiguous statement – they were neither here nor there!

Rather what they did smartly was they marshaled ‘refugees’ and diverted the sentiment towards economic grievances. And as business was a word with 'negative conotation' for upper caste Bengli Hindus - the Bhadralok, the search for jobs too away all their attention and labour.

 

Gradual indoctrination almost made Bengali Hindus forget – the real reason of being rendered homeless in East Pakistan and worst even the ethnic cleansing.

 

The first generation of ‘sickular’ and Left-liberals came from this stock. Culturally too, Bengal offers a challenge and complex situation. There was a clear distinction between those who are ‘original’ inhabitants of West Bengal – called ‘Ghotis’ or E-Deshis (from this land) and ‘Bangal’ or O-deshis (people from the other region).

 

The East Bengal and Mohanbagan Football clubs are also originally divided on those lines. Even during marriages – these two distinct divisions come in unlike probably anywhere else in India. And this division is never a factor amongst Bengali Muslims.

 

The Muslims of Uttar Pradesh might have got all the wrong names for different reasons, the strong ‘radicalism’ actually thrived in Bengali Muslims and they always knew that it is they who would decide the rulers of Bengal.

 

The CPI-M-led Left remained a pro-Hindu party in Kerala – a fact again demonstrated this time; but in Bengal, Basuism also realised the power of minority votes. Mamata Banerjee’s entire political strength in uprooting the Left also came from this population in 2011.

And, now after all the warfare of 8-phase polls, the last man who is smiling is the Bengali Muslim in Murshidabad or even in Kolkata. They have saved ‘themselves’ from BJP and in the process also ‘saved’ Mamata Banerjee from a possible defeat.

Sentiments okay! But creation of Bangladesh did not help Hindu Bengalis 

 BJP’s 200 plus target was not only humungous. It was a bit impractical as in 70 seats – the Muslims decide who should go to the assembly. The psephologists’ calculation of 140 seats for BJP in 2019 based on 18 Lok Sabha seats win did not match with the politics on the ground.

In effect, BJP started playing on minus 70. So today, their victory in 77 seats should be considered out of 224 seats for all practical reasons.

One senior Trinamool Congress MP told this journalist after the vote count on May 2, “Did I not tell you, the outsiders did not understand West Bengal. Their arithmetic was poor on the chemistry of Bengal politics.

 

So, Trinamool’s 213 win in the ultimate is ‘win’ of 143. As many as 70 seats minimum were already with Mamata. Hence the over confidence – “Khela hobey”, and Prashant Kishor’s master stroke in predicting that BJP may not touch 100 mark.

 

Please recollect properly, during campaigning too, Mamata Banerjee herself said, the BJP would at best manage around 70 seats.

 

The BJP leaders in Bengal knew about this. Hence there was reluctant on the part of many prominent leaders to contest election. Still they banked on Narendra Modi factor, and in many cases the Prime Minister’s campaign did help them sail home.

 

In 2021 elections, ISF of Abbas Sidiqqui slogged hard in South 24-Parganas and North 24-Parganas, 
telling Muslims how the Mamata had kept them merely as a vote bank. Yet, the voters went with TMC.

There are 64 seats from these two districts - North 24-Parganas with 26 per cent Muslim population has 33 and South 24-Parganas with 35.5 percent Muslims accounts for 31 assembly seats. Of these seats, only five came to the BJP.
In Murshidabad district, Mamata-Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury (only formidable Congress leader) old rivalry came to the fore. Trinamool Congress gave a shocker to the Congress picking up as many as 18 from the region.
Incidentally, 66.27 percent of population here are Muslims. 

The Bhadralok might have let down the BJP poll managers. But for saffron party, the battle was always pretty tough in the state. 

The ‘chemistry of Bengal politics’, for all practical purposes and historical legacies, always put the BJP on a back foot. Same was the case with the Bharatiya Jana Sangh and Hindu Mahasabha too.

In Malda, despite 51 per cent Muslims, out of 12, the BJP managed win in four and eight seats went to TMC. Even from Hindu voters' trust with BJP perspective, demography was an important decider in this year's polls; but absence of Hindu unity was visible.

It can be argued that the Leftists campaign made Hindus almost forget the real reason of being rendered homeless in East Pakistan and even ethnic cleansing. They developed a craze to run for jobs.

In Coach Behar with 74.1 per cent Hindus, BJP won 7 out of 9. In Alipurdwar, BJP had a clean sweep of 5.

In Jalpaiguri, despite 84.16 per cent Hindus, out of 7, three seats went to TMC and 4 to BJP. In Darjeeling district, the BJP scored a neat five and the 74 percent Hindu population knew whom to vote for.

In North Dinajpur, out of nine seats,  7 went to Mamata camp and remaining 2 for BJP. Here Hindu-Muslim population  was 49.31 to 49 per cent. South Dinajpur voters gave each TMC and BJP three seats each.

Here Hindu population is around 73.55 percent.

ISF campaign trail

Ends