This is a peculiar season globally. The concept of 'reciprocity' is in debate.
In making efforts to bring in peace in Manipur as also resolve multiple and complex issues in the Naga peace parleys; the concept of reciprocity is based on the belief that New Delhi is weak.
This is not at all true. Narendra Modi is decisive and also a tough task master. Many of his ministers and even BJP chief ministers either performed well or will perish soon.
The concept of reciprocity is also based on the belief 'we can't be wrong'.
Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri told journalists in Bangkok that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has "appreciated the support that Myanmar has extended for the rescue and repatriation, including very recently, of Indian nationals from cyber-scam centers operating on the borders between Myanmar and Thailand".
Much importantly, the foreign secretary also said that both the leaders (Modi and Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Chairman of the State Administration Council of Myanmar) also agreed on the importance of cooperating on matters such as activities of insurgent groups along the borders, transnational crimes, and human trafficking also along the India-Myanmar border.
That means going is smooth between Indian Govt and the military junta in Myanmar as far as bilateral issues are concerned.
Precisely this is how things should be.
But there is more to it from a strategic point of view.
The army coup was staged in February 2021 when the world was still concerned about Covid19. But there was also a determined struggle by ethnic groups to topple an immensely unpopular military regime.
The rebellion continued without anyone seeming to win the war. But that set the tone for emerging challenges for the military junta.
Two years down the line in 2024 around 8,000 square kilometers have been seized. These advances were made over a set of four-five offensives. The first one was on October 27 during 'Operation 1027' undertaken by the Three Brotherhood Alliance comprising three ethnic groups — Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Arakan Army (AA) in northern Shan State and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).
In other words, Myanmar's generals are facing their biggest test since they seized power in a 2021 coup.
"There has been movement of Myanmar nationals to the Indian side. We are deeply concerned with such incidents close to our border," MEA spokesman Arindam Bagchi said on Thursday, Nov 16, 2023.
"We want cessation of the violence and resolution of the situation through constructive dialogue".
Border sealing was announced by Home Minister Amit Shah. National security is an issue a Minister or a chief minister (in a northeastern state) should not speak out of turn.
On Feb 16, 2024 at Yangon, there were over 1000 Myanmarese youths lined up at the Thai embassy for paper works as young people sought to leave Myanmar after the junta said it would impose military service compulsorily on youths.
The junta had said that it would recruit 60,000 young men and women for military service under the "Conscription law".
Myanmar's military said it would enforce the law that says men aged 18-35 and women aged 18-27 have to serve for at least two years (under junta) as it struggles to quell opposition to the 2021 coup.
The junta is facing widespread armed resistance to its rule after seizing power from the elected civilian government. It also suffered a series of stunning losses to an armed alliance of ethnic minority groups in various parts of the country.
In India, the Govt of India has decided to enforce border fencing and the move is being opposed by locals in Mizoram and Nagaland mainly.
A number of indigenous people organisation leaders met in Dimapur on Feb 16 (2024) and resolved to oppose border fencing and the scrapping of FMR.
The organisations wrote a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and said, "The decision to do away with the Free Movement Regime (FMR) and erect border fencing is not only impractical and dehumanizing to the communities living on both sides of the border but, such an approach may only diminish the prospects for peace and well being in the restive region.”
The Union Ministry of Home Affairs in 2024 decided to scrap the Free Movement Regime (FMR) between India and Myanmar to ensure the "internal security of the country and to maintain the demographic structure" of India’s North Eastern States bordering Myanmar.
False promise and raising of self-defeating issue may suit some Netas. But all these cannot go a long way.
North East of India has complexities and challenges of its own. Things have been pretty bad in Manipur and the alleged influx of foreign nationals was attributed as one of triggers for the 2023 ethnic clashes.
Yet some politicians are raising the bogey.
The tendency of tribal communities hitherto secluded in some isolated and excluded pockets to differentiate themselves and seek 'autonomy' both in Myanmar and in India came in confrontation with the supposed to be --
integrationist tendencies at multiple levels.
ends
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