Mamata Banerjee is cornered. That her regime has been involved in a series of corruption cases now no longer needs an argument of evidence. In education sector, the Supreme Court verdict has made it clear.
Her base has been shaken. Of course, her only strength remains in Muslim support base. But the fear of split in Muslin voteshare has made her direct all tirade against the Leftists.
Her detractors, especially the BJP, have a fair chance of giving her a run for money in 2026.
People of the state lost trust in her in 2024 during the developments related to the rape and murder of a medico.
Whether it’s police inaction or the deplorable state of the health system, people knew who is at fault. Banerjee has been the Home as well as the Health Minister.
There were other scams - the Sarada scam, the Narada sting operation, the ration scam etc.
The CBI had arrested North Bengal University vice chancellor Subires Bhattacharyya in connection with the assistant teachers' recruitment scam in West Bengal in 2016. The North Bengal University is based in Shiv Mandir area of well known commercial hub Siliguri.
Bhattacharyya is former chairperson of the West Bengal Central School Service Commission, which has hit headlines for wrong reasons in the recent past. Bhattacharyya was chairman of the high-powered Commission between 2014 and 2018.
The CBI had earlier arrested former state minister and Trinamool Congress strongman Partha Chatterjee, his relative Prasanna Roy, education department officials S P Sinha and Ashok Saha, and former West Bengal Board of Secondary Education (WBBSE) president Kalyanmoy Ganguly.
Arpita Mukherjee, a close associate of Partha Chatterjee and an actress who had done minor roles in a few Bengali and Odiya films, was also arrested.
The SSC Scam is an alleged paper leak scandal which was first reported by sections of media in 2018.The alleged teacher-job scam began in 2014 when the West Bengal School Service Commission (SSC) issued a notification for the appointment of teachers in state-run schools in West Bengal.
The recruitment process began in 2016 when Partha Chatterjee was the minister-in-charge of higher education and school education department.
West Bengal politics has seen a lot of changes in the last decade.
In 2014 within 20 days of the Modi government coming to power, Arunabha Bagchi, a former Dean at the Netherland's University of Twente, said if Bengalis wanted to play big in India's national politics, one way was to "forget the outdated communist" ideas and the other way was to "help" the BJP become a serious political player in West Bengal.
The Modi Sarkar and the saffron party - guided by PM Narendra Modi and Amit Shah - wanted to become 'masters' of many firsts.
The Bengal project was in the pipeline in that context, but that was almost a dream.
Even by 2017, the BJP was hardly in the scene in the state.
I distinctly remember asking Amit Shah once did he find the 'Bengali mindset' changing from being pro-Left. His response was negative.
However, he said efforts would be made by his party - nothing would be spared - and he was confident that the voters would gradually accept the Lotus party and its nationalistic ideology.
As one analyses various pros and cons, it ought to be remembered here that besides the Hindutva card and Modi's pledge of playing a catalyst of development, the BJP strategists always used 'the issue of corruption' as a tool against Mamata's party.
Around January 2015 itself, the BJP had stepped up its attack against Mamata regime on Saradha chit fund scam, and as there were loopholes in Trinamool camp, not to forget BJP leader Siddharth Nath Singh's assertive declaration - "Bhag Mamata, Bhag".
How things changed?
For people of West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee, once an opposition leader and image of a street fghter, is now the icon of establishment.
Absolute power corrupts absolutely. The people are thus not quite left wondering: who is the alternative?
The people themselves have had to become the alternative. And this has changed the political scene a lot.
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The BJP vote share in West Bengal and also Tripura have been increasing gradually (between 2015-16 and 2018).
In March 2018, the BJP dream of capturing power in with substantial Bengali voters, Tripura materialised, and this gave further push to the bigger dream - target West Bengal more aggressively.
Now to come back to BJP's initial years in terms of making ambitious plans for West Bengal, it would be pertinent to state that Bengalis have been traditionally on the wrong side of Indian politics.
There have been another element - that irrespective of party affiliations - Bengalis in general agree that 'New Delhi has also conspired' against state Bengal leaders.
Here comes the name of Subhash Chandra Bose, who was forced to resign as Congress president in 1939 with the tacit approval of Mahatma Gandhi. This changed Bengal's political history.
The Congress party in Bengal landed in utter disorder and shambles.
Bharatiya Jana Sangh was no doubt founded by Syama Prasad Mookerjee; but the Bengal unit could not grow up since his death.
It may not be wrong to suggest here that the Hindu Mahasabha and later also the Bharatiya Jana Sangh were politically on the wrong side of the Bengali 'bhadralok' sensibilities.
Some challenges but vital ones:
In the last assembly election in Bengal in 2021, BJP could bag only 77 seats compared to 213 of the Trinamool Congress and in the parliamentary elections this year, their downfall continued. BJP secured only 12 seats, compared to 18 seats in 2019.
There is strife at the top level between the new turncoats and the old members.
Dilip Ghosh, who had previously won from Medinipur, was made to contest from the Bardhaman-Durgapur constituency. This resulted in his loss and even the Medinipur seat was lost by BJP. Amid all these a question remains whether the CPI-M led Left Front will revive.
Both Congress and CPI (M) scored zero in 2021 assembly polls. The CPI-M failed to secure any seat for themselves in 2019 and also 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
It goes without stating that the CPI-M has caused split in the Hindu vote bank and this helped Mamata Banerjee.
But if the CPI-M is trying to revive; Mamata-led Trinamool sees Marxists with a concern in West Bengal’s political landscape because the Left has the capacity to win back Muslim votes. This will bring immense damage to Mamata.
Notably, the CPI(M)’s vote shares have not been remarkable in Lok Sabha and assembly elections post 2011. The 2016 assembly elections was the last time that the party saw a double-digit vote share (20.1%).
A good mix of young and old candidates was a strategy used by CPI(M) in 2024 Lok Sabha elections. This attracted attention.
Bengali voters are generally attached to their 'proud culture' and its preservation. That's why Mamata is playing 'Bengal talent' card with regard the Supreme Court order on teachers' job scam.
Moreover, with the legacy of being in power for 34 years, the Left Front still still has a core support base amongst both Hindu and Muslim voters.
ends
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