Maldives-India-China: Big Picture debate ---- Diplomacy is often akin to keeping eye on the 'eye of the fish' as was in Mahabharat

Maldives President Ibu Solih lost a crucial election in the Asian context. Solih's close relationship with India was a central issue in the polls and the voters preferred the incoming president, Dr Mohamed Muizzu, who openly took pro-China and anti-India stance.

But post polls, speculation is rife whether Muizzu will take a pragmatic line and take a middle approach vis-a-vis framing his foreign policy with regard New Delhi and Beijing. 

incoming Maldives Prez

Of course India has been taken aback by the election results. It expected Solih to return to power by his 'good governance' card.  

However, in the polls, the electorate make the ultimate decision. 

Addressing the weekly media on Thursday, in Delhi, MEA spokesman Arindam Bagchi said, "Prime Minister (Naendra Modi) was the first leader to convey greetings and felicitations to President-elect. 

PM Modi conveyed and reaffirmed India's commitment to strengthening the time-tested India-Maldives bilateral relationship and enhancing overall bilateral cooperation in the Indian Ocean region". 

India is giving enough importance to this tiny country but a key neighbour. Even as the global stage the Maldives archipelago in the Indian Ocean has lately assumed some significance. The analysts do not hesitate to declare that a setback may have occurred for no less than US President Joe Biden when Muizzu could humble his rival and come out with the flying colours. 

For his part, its true Modi was the 'first' international leader to congratulate the incoming president. 

India's High Commissioner in Male Munu Mahawar, met with President-elect Mohamed Muizzu and conveyed Modi's congratulatory message. 

The envoy had a "good discussion on various aspects of our bilateral relationship including development cooperation," MEA spokesman Bagchi said.

Officials said in Delhi, the meeting was focused on enhancing and strengthening bilateral relations between the two countries notwithstanding the electoral outcome. 

Taking to his handle on X, PM Modi posted on October 1, "Congratulations and greetings to @MMuizzu on being elected as President of the Maldives. 

India remains committed to strengthening the time-tested India-Maldives bilateral relationship and enhancing our overall cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region."

The presidential candidate from the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), Mr Muizzu, won the Maldivian elections. Muizzu won with more than 53 per cent of the votes after the results of votes in all 586 ballot boxes were tallied.

This was the second round of polling after no candidate emerged as a clear winner in the first round. Mr Muizzu had emerged as the frontrunner in the first round with around 46 per cent votes, followed by Ibrahim Solih's 39 per cent. 

The Modi government has been giving adequate importance to Maldives.  In fact, Modi visited Maldives in June 2019 within days of his taking charge as India's Prime Minister for the second time.  

Modi had made a veiled attack on Pakistan and said terrorism poses a major challenge globally and a lot of time has been wasted in the debate on a good or a  bad terrorist. "The water is already rising above the danger level," Mr Modi said addressing People's Majlis-Parliament-of Maldives here. (June 2019)

"I will  expect the world bodies and especially the major global players that within a time frame, a global conference be convened to discuss matters pertaining to terrorism. 

So that we can discuss all issues and loopholes that the terrorists and their supporters make use of," Mr Modi had said. 

 

Engagements in Maldives was not directly linked to terror and Pakistan. But it did have China connections and also an obvious fact that Beijing has been always soft and 'defending' Pakistan in international fora.

"...it is difficult to see how India stood to lose from the election of a leader (Muizzu) described curiously in Indian and Western press as an anti-India and pro-China man," runs an article in Pakistani newspaper 'Dawn'. 

Of course, since 2018, the Maldives administration has been pro-India rather explicitly. 

It goes with out stating that for more than a decade Maldives has been the scene of much geopolitical jostling between New Delhi and Beijing.

In 2018, Solih won a landslide victory against the 'corrupt former leader Mohamed Yameen', who had made the country a poster-child for China’s so-called debt trap diplomacy. In fact, Yameen was also jailed.

Solih

Solih made Maldives a model of good governance and rule of law. He also pushed “Indian First” approach and this ultimately had become a major poll issue.  

Thus, as polls had rejected Solih, it may not be erroneous to suggest that there is something there for Indian diplomats to ponder. In the polls, Muizzu played the “India Out” card and this was supported by Yameen supporters.  

There was resentment against a small Indian military presence in the country.

The Indian Navy and Coast Guard maintain small contingents to run a maritime patrol aircraft and two helicopters that provide search and rescue services, surveillance of the exclusive economic zone. But local Maldives people did not quote approve these. 

However, all of it is not lost. India will have to continue healthy bilateral relations even with the Muizzu-led regime. The new Maldives president may also understand the importance of keeping right balance between New Delhi and Beijing.  India’s engagements with Maldives were not restricted in the strategic area alone. India has been helpful and quite generous by its cooperation and engagement with Maldives in the areas of climate change, infrastructure development and capacity building.

Maldives is one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change. India in post-G20 Summit era is more assertive even on issues such as renewable energy.

The Muizzu administration could then find reasons to maintain a more practical relationship with the Indian government. 

MEA spokesman Mr Bagchi has rightly summed it up. "The focus of our partnership with Maldives has always been on capacity building and working together to address our shared challenges and priorities. As neighbours, we need to collaborate closely to address the challenges confronting our regions such as transnational crimes and Humanitarian Assistance Disaster Relief (HADR)." 

We look forward to engaging with the new administration in Maldives on all such issues," Mr Bagchi said.

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