New Delhi
As the voting has ended in Karnataka and as expected focus will now shift to
ensuing elections in Hindi-speaking states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan as well as the state of Telangana in Deccan plateau.
In fact, the coming winter elections in November-December will also witness an electoral contest in the small northeastern state of Mizoram, which has only 40-member assembly.
BJP ally MNF is in power in Mizoram while Congress rules Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. In Telangana the newly renamed BRS is the ruling dispensation.
The BJP is in power in Madhya Pradesh and hence the desperation is more for Congress to regain the lost power.
In the 2018 assembly polls, the Congress had emerged as the single largest party winning 114 seats.
Hence the anguish in Congress camp for losing Jyotiraditya Scindia-group in 2020 is still palpable.
The BJP had won 109 and there were two from BSP. The central Indian state has 230 members and hence the majority mark is 116. In 2013, just a few months
before the 2014 general elections that saw unprecedented saffron surge and 'Narendra Modi wave', the BJP under CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan had won as many as 165 seats.
Thus for the Lotus party, there was a net loss of 56 seats and interestingly the Congress had made a gain of exactly 56 seats.
All these make it obvious that the November polls this year will be more than crucial.
From a theoretical perspective the stage will be set for the battle between old war horses and titans.
Shivraj Singh Chouhan is a four-term Chief Minister already and in the Congress there are at least
irreplaceable veterans Digvijaya Singh (onetime Guru of Rahul Gandhi) and Kamal Nath -- a creation of
Sanjay Gandhi's school of politics.
But the grand old party has issues and internal bickering. In February this year, Kamal Nath's supporters
put out posters calling him 'bhavi - future Chief Minister'. The move was publicly ridiculed by younger
lots -- Ajay Singh and Arun Yadav.
Without doubt, the BJP is smiling from a safe distance. "We have three-four permanent election issues in
Madhya Pradesh. The Hindutva, development, Congress infighting and the 'Modi magic," says a Madhya Pradesh
BJP leader.
The Congress has also started making moves and former state deputy speaker Rajendra Singh has been
tasked to head a manifesto committee. Among other things the faction led by Kamal Nath has decided to
throw up a demand for a farm loan waiver.
For his part, BJP leader and chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has promised giving a grant of Rs 1000 per month to beneficiaries under Ladli Behna scheme.
Needless to add, Shivraj Singh Chouhan's 'neighbour next door Mama' image and Prime Minister
Modi's powerful magical influence could save the day for the ruling BJP which will yet again face
double "anti-incumbency" in the November polls.
Everyone will be keeping an eye towards Gwalior-Chambal region -- which has 34 assembly seats and the Congress
had won 26.
There is also legacy pull and emotional touch with the Gwalior region for the saffron party.
In fact in 2018, during his visit to Gwalior, Mr Modi paid tributes to Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Rajmata Vijayraje
Scindia (grandmother of Union Aviation Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia) and former BJP chief Kushabhau Thakre.
All three stalwarts had nurtured BJP during its infancy years in the Gwalior region.
In March 2020, 22 Congress MLAs, mostly loyalists of Union Minister Scindia, had resigned from the Congress
party and their Madhya Pradesh Assembly membership leading to the fall of Kamal Nath ministry. In the bypolls
to 28 assembly seats in November 2020, the BJP had won 19 and and thus could muster majority.
ends
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