Karnataka is second win for Congress, BJP has won 15 out of 25 assembly polls

Why do I say Sickularism goes out of the way in celebrating the victory of the dynasty?

Since May 2019 when Narendra Modi returned to power for the second time giving his party the historic tally of 303; we must note that the Karnataka poll outcome was only the second victory for Rahul Gandhi and the Congress.

The first was Himachal Pradesh in December 2022. Closer scrutiny suggests the polls in both Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh were won due to local factors. In contrast, the BJP has won 15 assembly polls including big tickets -- the Uttar Pradesh!

"The defeat in Karnataka would be a rare blow for the BJP considering Modi remains highly popular after nine years in power and is favourite to win a third term nationally in 2024," says a Reuters report.

"We fought this fight with love, with an open heart, and the people of Karnataka showed that this country likes love,” Rahul Gandhi later said. 

Of course the Congress win is significant given the scale of margins. Karnataka is home to about 65 million people and is considered the BJP’s gateway to southern India. The saffron party has always struggled to win elections elsewhere in southern India. Later this year there are important polls in states such as Telangana and three-other Hindi speaking states Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.

There is of course polls in Mizoram as well. 

The BJP's best shot in Karnataka was in 2008 when it won 110 seats in the 224-member assembly. Five years back, the saffron party had won 104 and fell short of the majority mark. It later came to power in July 2019 after 17 Congress and JD-S legislators defected and backed a B S Yediyurappa-led dispensation.

“We accept the verdict of the people of Karnataka with due respect, we will take this verdict in our stride,” Basavaraj Bommai, the BJP’s outgoing chief minister of Karnataka, tweeted.

"The Congress win is PM Modi's decisive defeat. This is because except for PM Modi, there was no other face. The issues we raised were related to the state. But BJP made the election campaign like a referendum for PM Modi," Congress leader Jairam Ramesh said. Jairam's stakes in Congress could go up as he is consideredto be one of the chief advisors for Rahul Gandhi vis-a-vis Bharat Jodo Yatra and politics in last few months.  

Linking Karnataka, other state polls to LS battle is media curry, Fact speaks otherwise

Last three Lok Sabha elections -- 2019, 2014 and 2009 proved the ivory tower experts wrong but nevertheless the tom tomming about such expertise go on unabated. Lets do the fact check. In 2013, the BJP lost Karnataka polls badly winning merely 40 seats and vote share declined to 19.89 per cent votes. The split in the saffron party and B S Y floating his own party did the damage. 

The Congress bounced back with 36.59 per cent votes 122 seats giving the then Manmohan Singh government a fresh lease of life, but in 2014 Lok Sabha polls - the Congress tally had nosedived to all time low 44 and the grand old party even failed to get the recognition of an opposition party in Lok Sabha. 

The BJP seats tally in contrast jumped to 282 making an increase of 166 seats and the Congress had lost 162 seats from its previous 2009 polls.

In other state polls in 2013 -- Madhya Pradesh, the BJP returned to power with a thumping victory. In Rajasthan too, Vasundhara Raje led the saffron camp to win as many as 165 seats and in Chhattisgarh as well Raman Singh had returned to power.

In 2008, the BJP created history winning 110 seats in Karnataka and the vote share was 33.86 per cent. The Congress was ousted with 80 seats and 34.76 per cent votes in its kitty; but in 2009 Lok Sabha polls, it was Congress which crossed the 200 mark.

But in Karnataka, the BJP retained its hold winning 19 seats out of 28 and the Congress could win only six.

In 2018, in Karnataka polls, the BJP did well to emerge as the single largest party winning 104 seats and the vote share was 36.22; the Congress could win 78 seats and 38.04 per cent votes. But in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the saffron party had managed to win 25 seats.

Notably, the BJP lost power in three states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in 2018. But in 2019 parliamentary polls, the saffron party crossed the magical 300 mark winning 303 seats and the Congress could win 52 -- merely eight more than its 44 tally of 2014.

The Congress yet again missed the status of LoP in Lok Sabha.

 

In 2019 polls in Chhattisgarh -- within weeks it lost power to Congress, the BJP swept the parliamentary polls again winning 9 out of 10 seats. In 2014, the BJP had won all 10 seats. Similarly, in Rajasthan the 'Modi magic' had its say and the BJP won 24 out of 25 seats and one seat went to Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, also a NDA constituent. The Congress tally was zero -- repeat of its 2014 performance in Rajasthan.

In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP had lost the power to Kamal Nath-led Congress in December 2018; but when it came to Lok Sabha polls, the Lotus party improved its 2014 performance and won one seat more -- that is 28 as against 27 in 2014.

The moral of the story is Indian voters are real masters and they more often fail the poll experts and even so called poll managers among the netas. In 2004 the BJP lost the parliamentary polls. But just a few months back, the Vajpayee-led BJP had formed government in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

ends