New Delhi
The high percentage of education in the society and middle-class sophistication vis-a-vis an inherent attempt to discredit Hindu rituals and practices and pandering to Muslims pushed by Left liberals could be a reality in south India.
At least this is one hidden lesson the Karnataka polls have thrown up, say analysts known for close affinity to the 'right thinking' school of thought.
The upswing in Congress seats in the just concluded Karnataka polls is a testimony to polarisation among Muslim voters. This pattern was visible in 2021 in West Bengal especially in the southern parts of the state wherein the pattern also contributed to decimation of the communists themselves.
Blogger in Karnataka
Muslims constitute over 13 percent of the population in Karnataka and they are decisive in at least 40 assembly segments. Muslims have a stronger presence in Gulbarga, Bidar, Bijapur, Raichur and Dharwad regions of northern Karnataka.
In the last assembly, Congress was the only party with as many as seven Muslim legislators.
Between JD(S) and Congress, the outfit of Deve Gowda family was dumped by Muslim voters in this year's polls and even the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI), a pro-Muslim outfit, could not make much penetration.
There was strategic voting and in many places civil society groups played full-time politics and even decided which candidates should be fielded.
JD(S) was made a sacrificial goat like CPI(M) and Congress itself voluntarily suffered in West Bengal in 2021 to help Mamata Banerjee.
Hence there was a surge in Congress vote share and upswings in the number of seats. For the JD(S), the vote share fell from near 18 percent to 13.29 and there was a drop of as many as 18 seats -- from 37 to 19.
For Congress the increase in vote share was by 4.74 percent from 38.14 to 42.88 and the seats jumped from 80 to 136 while BJP's seats dropped from 104 to 65 but the drop in popular vote was a modest 0.35 percentage.
"There are reasons to believe that the Left liberal organisations with their known pro-Muslim tilt worked overtime this time selling truths and falsehood and packaged them well to suit their anti-Modi and anti-BJP narratives," a local BJP leader said.
The BJP move scrapping 4 percent quota for the Muslim community in the OBC category hiking it by two percent each gave opportunities to the BJP detractors to polarise Muslims in favour of the Congress. Almost similar game plan was at work in West Bengal wherein all Congress and Left voters were convinced to shift loyalties to Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress.
Thus a growing refrain that what comes out in newspapers either English or vernacular do not matter much electorally in the era of social media may not work in states such as Karnataka and West Bengal.
The sustained campaign by NGOs and intellectuals in different platforms including the strategic use of film and television commercial serials to defame Hinduism and 'Gurus' and Sadhus also leave impact among middle class voters.
Of course, the BJP failed to capture power in the crucial eastern Indian state and Mamata could return to power. But in the process, the Leftists and Congress tally in Bengal were reduced to zero. Still the big message was Sickularism -- that is the distorted version of their secularism- has triumphed.
So much anguish was in the Trinamool camp against BJP supporters and workers that for weeks they were subjected to alleged state-sponsored violence.
On this backdrop many say even in Karnataka precautions should be taken against possible anti-Hindu violence once change of guards take place in Bengaluru.
The Muslim appeasement politics will return in Karnataka as the Congress party has promised to restore scrapped 4 per cent quota for Muslims. There are protagonists like Siddaramaiah, who has the record of consolidating his politics by announcing programmes in the name of Tipu Sultan.
Moreover, the manifesto promise for ban on Bajrang Dal and comparing it with PFI gave a fresh lease of life to the sheer 'minority-communalism' play.
Some organisations worked overtime to spread half-truths. The BJP leaders' reference to “UP model of governance” was concocted and presented before the voters more as a 'threat' and even the latent push of imposing north Indian hegemony.
Native Kannads are even otherwise gradually getting touchy about 'outsiders' making penetration in the state.
The Congress party's controversial tweet on 'sovereignty' of Karnataka was a case in point in this context.
Organisations such as Eddelu Karnataka never showed aversion to politics and some of their campaign worked well in favour of the party they backed.
It prepared a booklet of 25 pages titled “4 Years of BJP’s Rule: Disillusionment Due to Dead Promises”.
It organised 75 conferences in different constituencies and those segments were those where the BJP victory margins were slender in 2018.
"We ensured that religious minorities, including rich Muslims and women from conservative Muslim families, who often skipped voting, went out and voted," Purushottam Bilimale, a former Jawaharlal Nehru University associate and executive committee member of Eddelu Karnataka, told 'Frontline' magazine.
It was more than being a civil society group. He added: “In nine constituencies, we ensured that weak candidates belonging to the JD(S) and the SDPI [Social Democratic Party of India] who would have not won but, by contesting, would cut the votes of the Congress candidate, withdrew their candidature".
And when the activists even began a missed call campaign for raising support, there was nothing apolitical about it.
ends
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