Good show by Congress in Karnataka does not augur well for so-called Opposition unity

Is Congress win a blessing in disguise for Modi ? Will 'opposition unity' suffer?

“We will do anything to keep BJP out of power…In the interest of Karnataka, my father should become the Chief Minister,” said Yathindra Siddaramaiah, son of former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah.

The son is only articulating the senior Siddaramaiah's voice !! Dynasty is crucial in Congress politics always. 

(Return of old Congress malady, Arrogance, will play a big time spoiler to the so-called Opposition unity move. Indirectly, the BJP should prepare itself for the unfolding developments related to many disgruntled camps among smaller regional parties)

also used by 'Organiser'

New Delhi 

The good old arrogance will be back in action. Congress leaders and pro-Congress experts and analysts are already linking the Karnataka outcome to Bharat JodoYatra and Rahul Gandhi factor.This will bring back Congress party's 'arrogance' vis-a-vis other opposition partiesand the so-called opposition unity to take on Narendra Modi and the BJP in 2024 parliamentary polls will come a cropper.

If Congress continues his 'glory to Rahul' line, ambitious regional parties will not find the going easy and comfortable. Leaders like K Chandrasekhar Rao of BRS in Telangana and Mamata Banerjee of Trinamool Congress in West Bengal are yet again likely to intensify anti-Congress politics.

For Mamata Banerjee, it would be relevant more as she recently lost a crucial bypoll.

The ruling Trinamool Congress in West Bengal suffered a shocking defeat in Sagardighi which was won by Congress nominee Bayron Biswas by 22,986 votes. Otherwise Congress score in West Bengal assemblypolls in 2021 was zero.

For Uddhav Thackeray in Maharashtra, the Congress win in Karnataka is like a double-edged sword. Whilestate unit of Congress will be more aggressive in terms of seat adjustments etc; his own cadres will findit difficult to go soft or shoulder to shoulder with Congress workers -- whom they have always opposed tooth and nail since the inception of Shiv Sena.

In Bihar, Nitish Kumar will get a second mild shock as his national leadership ambition will fall flat. Biju JanataDal (BJD) leader Naveen Patnaik has already snubbed any move of a so-called Federal Front despitehis separate meetings with Nitish Kumar and Mamata Banerjee.

In the last three Lok Sabha elections -- 2019, 2014 and 2009, the ivory tower

experts were proved wrong for linking the assembly polls outcome in Karnataka toLok Sabha elections at the national level. 

In 2013, the BJP lost Karnataka polls badly winning merely 40 seats and vote share

declined to 19.89 per cent votes. The split in the saffron party and B S Yeddyureppa floating his own

party did all the damage. The Congress bounced back with 36.59 per cent votes 122 seats giving

the then Manmohan Singh government a fresh lease of life just a few months before Lok Sabha polls.

But in 2014 Lok Sabha polls - the Congress saw its worst drubbing and the tally had nosedived to all time low 44 and the grand old party even failed to get the recognition of an opposition party in Lok Sabha. 

In other state polls in 2013 -- Madhya Pradesh, the BJP returned to power with a thumping victory. In Rajasthan

too, Vasundhara Raje led the saffron camp to win as many as 165 seats and in Chhattisgarh as well Raman Singh

had returned to power. In 2014, the BJP seats tally in contrast jumped to 282 making an increase of 166 seats and the Congress had lost 162 seats from its previous 2009 polls.

If this was an accident, let's take 2008 and also 2018.

In 2018, the BJP lost power in three states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. But in 2019

parliamentary polls, the saffron party crossed the magical 300 mark winning 303 seats and the Congress could

win 52 -- merely eight more than its 44 tally of 2014. The Congress yet again missed the status of LoP in Lok Sabha.

In 2018, in Karnataka polls, the BJP did well to emerge as the single largest party winning 104 seats and

the vote share was 36.22; the Congress could win 78 seats and 38.04 per cent votes. But in 2019 Lok Sabha

polls, the saffron party had managed to win 25 Lok Sabha seats out of 28 from Karnataka.

In 2008, the BJP created history winning 110 seats in Karnataka and the vote share was 33.86 per cent. The Congress 

was ousted with 80 seats and 34.76 per cent votes in its kitty; but in 2009 Lok Sabha polls, it was Congress

which crossed the 200 mark giving Manmohan Singh and the UPA the second stint between 2009 and 2014.

But in Karnataka, the BJP could retain its hold winning 19 seats out of 28 and the Congress could win only six.

In the run up to May 10, 2023 assembly elections, similar sentiment was felt especially in the context of Narendra Modifactor. Huge turnout at Modi's mega rallies and roadshows were for the people's Prime Minister and his personalconnect with voters; but there was no guarantee that the same crowd will come to the polling station and even if theycame they will vote for the BJP.

In Karnataka for assembly polls, the local factors always work more than the larger image of Modi at the nationallevel. But during parliamentary polls, Modi will be possibly rewarded yet again. 

The moral of the story is Indian voters are real masters and they more often fail the poll experts and even

so called poll managers among the netas. In 2004 the BJP lost the parliamentary polls. But just a few months

back, the Vajpayee-led BJP had formed governments in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

But in 2004, the 'India Shining' simply failed.

Now that the Karnataka mandate has come, the BJP should prepare itself for the unfolding developmentsrelated to many disgruntled camps among smaller regional parties. Many of these outfits will benow more uncomfortable with a belligerent Congress basking in the glory of its success in the southernstate. 

Interaction with voters in recent weeks in Bengaluru, Mysuru and Belgaum suggested that between

Modi and Rahul Gandhi --- one is an 'asset' and a game changer. And the argument being Rahul Gandhi may be an 'asset' but hardly a game changer. The Congress had advantage to win the Karnataka polls perhaps even two years back orso when BJP got wind of the same and played a gamble by changing Chief Minister. 

Voters in these politically well-informed segments said between BJP and Congress, the 'local factor' is a crucial

factor.

"For the Congress the 'local factor' is an asset and could be a gamechanger; but for BJP the local factor has

the liability of incumbency" Ritin Sri Kumar of Bengaluru had said adding, "PM Modi is the gamechanger and it is the 'Modi magic' that has the power to beat the anti-incumbency factor". 

Hence once results started pouring in, the argument gained currency that BJP was 'already losing it or it was a tough battle' from before and as local factors work more in assembly polls in Karnataka.

Thus, Narendra Modi and the hard work of BJP leaders might have saved whatever is saved. Local factors decided the fate of the candidates in EVMs yet again in Karnataka assembly polls.

ends 

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--Nirendra DevNew Delhi