90 % voters' turnout can rock the boat.....
NDPP is bullish, but will it crumble under 'weight' of neo-fighters ?
Dimapur
The NDPP is bullish about retaining power in Nagaland. The BJP is also equally confident that tagging along with Neiphiu Rio, state's Chief Minister since 2003 barring a brief spell, will help most of its 20 candidates sail through.
The NPF is missing the 'fighting cock' spirit this time. But at places it has got some good winnable candidates. But the real spoilers to the party this year could be LJP(Ram Vilas) --- hardly anybody thought it would field so many 'possible winners' as nominees.
"Even we were surprised that an almost sure candidate Dr A Sukhato is our candidate in Pughoboto today... We have organisational issues, but people's enthusiasm is immense and we are more than glad at such a response by the people of Nagaland," says an LJP office bearer.
Elections in Mokokchung district will be more than exciting and despite Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio's blessings and high command showing 'soft corner' for an alleged 'Kumbh-bath-experienced' Temjen Imna Along, for the Higher and Technical Education Minister the going looks tough.
"You remember Lok Sabha elections in 1998 in Assam when the entire AGP was wiped out, similarly the Left and the Congress ended up with zero in West Bengal in 2021. Many big heads will roll this time," says a retired police officer and a passionate poll watcher.
Some of it happened in Nagaland in 1993 when S C Jamir 'ensured' defeat of three probable intra-party rivals - Hokishe Sema, Chingwang Konyak and I K Sema.
But this time the scale is high. Our expert friend's argument is that as the people are confused, they are also 'angry' and this anguish will be reflected in the huge turnout.
"Well, if the turnout is around 85 to 90 percent this does not augur well for the NDPP...But that's one part of the story. Another key side is that the anti-incumbency will work against even individual sitting legislators".
This will be perhaps more in Mokokchung district where people may decide their voting strategies 'going by individual candidates and village decisions rather than the party affiliations.
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| Imchen and Union MoS for IT |
A die-hard regional party supporter in Kohima district agrees to this view and lucidly adds: "Moreover, in Nagaland unlike the rest of India, the prospects of candidates are decided by villagers. If villagers decide in favour of a candidate, the decision will be respected. Leaders are prisoners in the hands of villagers".
Of course, in Mokokchung district, 'range' factors also work quite prominently.
Those who were 'overconfident' like a few aides of NPF chief Shurhozelie must be leaking their wounds now rather passively.
The NPF 'conviction' was that once tickets are denied to the likes of winnable candidates such as Dr A Sukhato, they will make a beeline to the state's oldest regional party. It was with this theory NPF leaders did not mind making pro-Rio statements. At least two sitting NPF MLAs understandably prevented Shurhozelie from pulling the plug.
NPF Legislature Party leader Kuzholuzo (Azo) Nienu perhaps rightly says, Nagas were witnessing one of the dirtiest politics at present with blatant use of money power. Firstly, this is not new. And secondly, challenges ought to be fought, and cannot be resolved by waiting passively for others to do things in your favour.
All such game plans have gone for a toss as those denied tickets have instead decided to try their fortunes with the LJP (Ram Vilas). There is already a latent campaign that the LJP (Ram Vilas) is the 'B team for BJP'. If this concept 'sells', the final outcome will be shocking for regional titans who for long took at least 15 seats for granted.
Individually, there are already mixed signals in Mokokchung district from constituencies such as Mongoya, Koridang and Alongtaki. There is no single pattern emerging. Therefore, at Alongtaki, the state BJP president may lose.
But it is again not yet clear, who has the advantage. If some keen poll watchers are to be trusted, the presence of multiple candidates in most of these constituencies have changed the rules of the game.
"It's still too early for the clear scene to emerge in places like Alongtaki and Mongoya," says a retired government official and a native of the region.
Therefore, when we try to assess some of the outcomes based on the 'so-called background' of candidates, the theorem falls. "See our politics is village driven and in Alongtaki even the range factors come," says our friend, adding therefore fielding a 'Major sahab' (Toshikaba) may not help NPF in Koridang.
Here, advantage perhaps lies with BJP's Imkong Imchen.
In Mongoya, NDPP candidate Imkongmar is from a large village - Mokokchung. The second large Chuchuyimpang has NPF candidate Moasangba Jamir. Then there is another crucial village Longsa -- from where comes former Chief Secretary Alemtemshi Jamir. Congress candidate Supongmeren is also from Longsa and he could be the real underdog.
In short, the game is on for anyone from these villages. There is now finally the talk of the town that flamboyant ex-IAS Alemtemshi may not contest this time.
In another key seat - Aonglenden -- all eyes will be on NDPP nominee and Speaker Sharingain Longkümer.
Veteran S C Jamir had a number of relatives in politics and also in his ministry. His brother-in-law Nungshijenba was one. Incidentally, Nungshijenba's son Sharingain Longkümer enjoys good rapport with Chief Minister Rio.
Congress candidate is Toshipokba and could be 'weak'; but the constituency has a substantial number of traditional Congress supporters largely owing to the 'Jamir factor'.
ends
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| NPF leaders: Shurhozelie & Azo |
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