Sunday, March 6, 2022

World War III ? Or the 'worst is yet to come' ? :::::::: Lesson from Ukraine: Be battle ready with own weapons, says Army chief

Russia, 'fire in the belly' and a changed world


New Delhi


The term 'Cold War' stayed on and is 'cool' because the competition between the

Soviet Union and the US was approached in a clinical method.


Perhaps the other side could predict what was in each rival's mind and

planning. Moreover, both the US and USSR were one on one aspect -- discourage

emergence of any third power.




But the world has changed. USSR is now a thing of past. But the

Russian spirit has survived.


Vladimir Putin represents that 'spirit' - of not giving up so easily.


Importantly; the cold war changed the geography of Europe as well. By

the 1950s, as

stated in the book 'Fire in the East', Europe no longer had the appetite

and fire in the belly to change events on the world stage.


Somewhere Putin's powerhouse Kremlin was following these minutely.


Moscow was assessing closely the limitations of Washington.


On the other hand, Europe called the 'cockpit' of the world for having seen

so many wars, cultivated a notion that it was 'more secure' than it has been

back in ages.


This 'weakness' suited Putin's plans when he decided to work on invasion of

Crimea and lately Ukraine.


He has been also monitoring the ground zero positions in Asia. According to

Paul Bracken in his book, the spread of weapons of mass destruction to

Asia including India and Pakistan actually signaled the end of American

dominance.


In August 2021, this was proved in more ways than one in Afghanistan.


On a number of occasions US President Joe Biden looked clumsy and

directionless. If the Americans could not handle the test and

challenge of Taliban, Putin

presumed the US Will develop cold feet once he also undergoes into

some 'adventurism'.


Even now it is being circulated in certain quarters that NAto is actually

scared of a major war at this time of the human history.


Hence perhaps Putin's timing of 'Ukraine invasion' was very apt.


Napoleon once said to know a country's strength and geography, one must

know the country's foreign policy well.


Putin knew in August 2021, America's biggest weakness was its foreign

policy handling.


In that sense, was the Russian alone to gauge this situation?


Not quite - China and India also knew the gravity of American limitation.


Tactfully, though both are bitter competitors in Asian theatre but both Beijing

and New Delhi have abstained from voting at UNSC and UNGA.


Both have decided to stick to Russia and keep the relevance of RIC

floating.


Putin is obsessed with Ukraine and it is not without good reason.

There is one historical

legacy between two countries.


 Ukraine has defence industry and also vast agricultural land.


  After 1991 as USSR collapsed, the geo politics changed. Putin being

from old school

  still harboured his obsession about the land.


  In 1994, Ukraine gave away major nuclear arsenals to Russia and

wanted 'security' from Russia. This did not happen and instead we have

war today.


  ends



World War III ? Or the 'worst is yet to come' ?


New Delhi 

On March 3, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin told his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron that he wants the entire Ukraine. Emerging out of tele talks, Macron told the media and the world "the worst is yet to come".


On March 6 yet again, Putin remained defiant and firm. He told Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that his campaign will not end till Ukraine stops fighting his forces.



With Putin remaining where he was since the beginning of the conflict on Feb 24, 2022,   

there is no sign of ceasefire or reasoning. Is the world then heading towards its third world war?


At least 364 civilians are confirmed to have been killed in Ukraine since Russian troops invaded 

on February 24, and another 759 wounded, although the true numbers are probably “considerably higher”, 

a UN monitoring mission said on Sunday.



History and legacy offer certain similarities and so these are worrying signs.


The world wars in the last two instances also started with disputes between two nations - like we have

Ukraine and Russia in conflict now, but then other nations were slowly entangled in and swallowed.


Even otherwise the world is not a happy place as of now. Nine countries including India, China,Pakistan

and two conflicting gang leaders, the US and Russia have nuclear weapons. There are an estimated 13,000 nuke

weapons across the globe. 



Major countries are also in dispute among themselves. In this region itself China has 

serious conflicts with Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei. Beijing has a standoff

with India. It has major trade and policy conflicts with the US.


There is a confrontation between Iran and Israel, Iran and the US, North Korea and the US and there

are troubles in Cuba, Syria, Palestine and Yemen.


In the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, after about 10 days, a promised ceasefire in the besieged port city of 

Mariupol collapsed on Sunday, March 6,  Russian President Putin warned that the ongoing resistance 

is putting Ukrainian statehood in jeopardy.


He also likened the West’s sanctions on Russia to “declaring war” showing no signs of remorse or nervousness.


Russia's defence ministry said the country had struck and disabled Ukraine's Starokostiantyniv military airbase with long-range high-precision weapons.


A Russian defence ministry official said a Ukrainian-controlled S-300 missile system had also been 

destroyed by Russian rocket forces. 


Putin for his part continued to pin the blame for the war squarely on the Ukrainian leadership and 

slammed their resistance to the invasion.


“If they continue to do what they are doing, they are calling into question the future of Ukrainian 

statehood,” he said 


The number of people fleeing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has topped 1.5 million, making it Europe’s 

“fastest-growing refugee crisis” since World War-II.


In the past two the world experienced 'world wars' only after local conflicts between two nations 

turned global.


The second world war began in 1939 with effect after Germany invaded Poland on September 1.

Two days later, then powerful nations France and Britain also joined. 


Gradually, 50 million people lost lives. Similarly for the first world war, on June 20, 1914 one leader was 

assassinated. About a month after Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in Bosnia, Austria and Hungary declared war on Serbia.

By 1915, the war spread. By 1916, the United States joined the war and by 1917-18, it was the wold

war. 



The rest is human tragedy and part of legacy. 


ends 

 Lesson from Ukraine: Be battle ready with own weapons, says Army chief



New Delhi: Army Chief Gen. Manoj Mukund Naravane on Tuesday said the

biggest lesson for India from the ongoing conflict between Russia and

Ukraine was to be ready to fight future wars with indigenous weapons.


"The biggest lesson is we have to be ready to fight future wars with

indigenous weapons. The wars wouldn't just be non-kinetic and would be

fought in the physical domain also," he said in a series of television

interviews.


“We have to be ready to fight future wars with indigenous weapons.

Steps towards Aatma Nirbhar Bharat in defense have to be taken more

urgently. Wars of future should be fought with own weapon systems," he

stressed.





India is a major importer of defence equipment and spares from Russia

and to en extent even from Ukraine.


The three forces have been holding meetings with different suppliers

and stakeholders to immediately equip themselves from other sources.



Efforts are also being made to ensure that whatever possible content

can be indigenised, is being done on a war footing.


India has a strong link with Ukraine's military aircraft Antonov. In

1984, India became the launch customer for AN-32 military transport

aircraft. Designed to withstand adverse weather conditions, the AN-32s

were used to ferry cargo and personnel to every terrain, including the

Himalayan frontier.


Even up to this day, India operates over 100 AN-32s, though they are

waiting for an upgrade to fly safely.


India is dependent on both Russia and Ukraine for the supply of

critical defence equipment.


Sources say the IAF operates Russian-made Mi-17 and Mi-8 helicopters.


More than 70 per cent of the Indian military arsenal is from Russia or

Russian origin.


INS Vikramaditya, the Indian Navy’s sole operational aircraft carrier,

is a refurbished Soviet-era ship. Moreover, four of the Indian Navy’s

10 guided-missile destroyers are Russian Kashin-class, six of its 17

frigates are Russian Talwar-class and its lone nuclear-powered attack

submarine, INS Chakra, is an Akula-class vessel.


Air Force’s fighter jets are Russian. It operates 272 Su-30MKIs and

over 100 MiG-21 Bisons.



  ends




New Delhi: 


In an unprecedented episode, Mukul Arya, India's envoy to Palestine, was found dead inside the Indian Mission in Ramallah on Sunday. 

It was not immediately known how Arya, a 2008-batch Indian Foreign Service officer, died.


External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar expressed shock over the death of the diplomat. 


"Deeply shocked to learn about the passing away of India's Representative at Ramallah, Shri Mukul Arya," 

Dr Jaishankar tweeted.


"He was a bright and talented officer with so much before him. My heart goes out to his family and loved ones.

Om Shanti," he wrote.


The top leadership of Palestine on Sunday expressed shock at the death of Mukul Arya at his workplace. 


The Palestinian foreign ministry said it received with "great astonishment and shock" the news of the 

death of Ambassador Arya.


"As soon as this painful news arrived, immediate instructions were issued from President Mahmoud Abbas and 

Prime Minister Muhammad Shtayyeh to all the security, police and public authorities, in addition to the 

Ministry of Health and Forensic Medicine, to immediately move to the place of residence of the Indian 

ambassador to closely monitor the case of death," it said in a statement.


It further added that "all parties are fully prepared to do what is required of them in such difficult and 

emergency circumstances." 


The ministry said it is in touch with India's external affairs ministry to complete the arrangements for 

transporting the body of Arya.


It said Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad Al-Maliki extended his heartfelt condolences to his Indian 

counterpart Dr Jaishankar, and through him to the Indian government as well as to Arya's family.


Arya had served in the Indian embassies in Kabul, Moscow as well as at the headquarters of the 

Ministry of External Affairs in Delhi.


He also served at India's Permanent Delegation to the UNESCO in Paris.


T S Tirumurti, India's Permanent Representative to the UN, also tweeted to say, "This is truly shocking. 

A wonderful colleague snatched away so young. My deepest condolences to his family".


ends 



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