New Delhi
Analysts would be working for weeks to get at the root cause of BJP's unprecedented success in Uttar Pradesh and why parties such as BSP that polled 30 per cent votes in 2007 would virtually vanish.
For starters, the big message from the UP mandate was that welfarism matters.Poor and Dalits need homes, toilets, cooking gas, food rations.The Yogi Adityanath government stood by the poor during the pandemic lockdown and modest cash handouts were done through direct bank transfers. These were deliberately or otherwise ignored by the media; but it all helped BJP build trust with the electorate.
In Gujarat, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had been an 'image' of Hindutva himself, a development man with no nonsense approach in guiding the bureaucracy. The same virtues apply to Yogi also.
Yogi's bulldozer style politics and strong-arm rule - surveys have found that a substantial number of Indians prefer strong leaders - also appears to have "resonated with voters", says BBC.
The casteist players in Indian politics so far underestimated the poor and Dalit population's patriotismand also wisdom. The UP mandate of 2022 is a lesson for them.
In 2014, Modi-Amit Shah duo had underlined the need of booth-level planning to turn the anti-Congress mood into BJP’s favour. In 2017, the same yardstick was applied and even in 2022, while BJP's rivals clamoured against use of 'funding’ to build up Yogi's image, but none really matched the hard work and meticulous planning worked out by Yogi-Shah-J P Nadda team. Above all, Modi himself would take stockof things.
Thus the caste games also changed.
Smaller Dalit communities, Pasis, Valmikis, Khatiks, Gonds and few others make about 10-11 percent of electorate. During the last 7-8 years the BJP made well planned efforts to win over them.
These segments reciprocated the gesture as Mayawati's show otherwise used to be Jatav dominance. Similarly, non-Yadav OBCs were also in favour of the BJP. Thus, BSP's vote share has dropped to 12.88 percent of votes and seats - merely one.
Compared to BSP, Apna Dal (Soneylal) won 12, Jansatta Dal Loktantrik 2, Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal 6, Rashtriya Lok Dal (of Jats) 8, Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party - 6. Of course, Samajwadi Party of Yadavs won 111.
During 2014 election campaign the then BJP chief Rajnath Singh had told me that his party's alliance with BSP - wherein they changed chief minister on rotation - was a blunder as BSP's rise was directly linked to Lotus party's downfall.
For years, the BJP struggled in UP. In the meantime, in 1995 Mayawati became UP's youngest and first Dalit Chief Minister. And in 2007, she was in power on her own.
But in 2017, BSP's vote share declined to 22.2 percent and now much below to around 12.
How things worked on ground. In Ambedkar Nagar, from where Mayawati has won the Lok Sabha polls, the BSP had to suffer loss of all five seats. This district on the borders of Purvanchal and Awadh has a very high concentration of Jatav voters.
Shyam Sundar Sharma is eight-time MLA from the Mant constituency in Mathura region. Once he won from here even on the Trinamool Congress symbol, but lost the seat this year contesting as a BSP candidate.
The BJP and PM Modi's craftsmanship has also created a neo-socio-political leadership in Uttar Pradesh.
The saffron party accused of promoting Brahmins or Thakurs actually promoted leaders belonging to OBC group at every level of the party's organisation and even governments in the state.
In mid 2020, surveys showed nearly 70 percent BJP law makers belonged to castes considered to be lower down in the caste hierarchy.
These changed the game.
ends
Manipur endorses Biren, pushes for solution to Naga problem
New Delhi
The outcome of Manipur elections would have unprecedented implications perhaps for the first time.
Unwittingly the voters of Manipur might have not only decided who would be their chief Minister, ministers and legislators; they might have also played a pivotal role in deciding future course of action vis a vis Naga peace talks.
Northeast watchers know that any solution to the vexed and long pending Naga political issue could lead to a new era of peace and prosperity for the entire region. It is more so for the state of Manipur.
The Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah), or NSCN (IM), with its organisational
presence among the Tangkhul Nagas tribe, has several pockets of influence in the hills of Manipur.
NSCN (IM) general secretary Thuingelang Muivah is himself a Tangkhul and grapevine is he too was keeping
close eyes on elections in Naga areas of Manipur. In fact, Congress nominee from Chingai Sword Vashum
is a kin of a senior NSCN (IM) functionary.
Of course, elections and alleged 'militant involvement' is always a mixed bag. In some constituencies, the NSCN (IM)
have openly favoured NPF, and in some even others.
There are other complexities too. The Meitei population - mostly Hindus - who make substantial electorate
in the valleys have reasons to be cautious about the Centre's future move.
That incumbent Chief Minister N Biren Singh has the 'image' of a leader who struggled hard to present
the 'Meitei perception' on the Naga issue to Home Minister Amit Shah in 2019 has also helped the saffron
party. Previously that role to take up Meitei cause vis-a-vis Naga demand for 'greater Nagaland' and possible
disintegration of Manipur state was with Congress veteran Ibobi Singh.
Ibobi contested this time but party's lackadaisical style of poll management and campaign was never
taken seriously by voters and ticket aspirants.
That Congress suffered immensely and its tally could come down to single digit make it clear once
again that the 'double engine' concept of Prime Minister Narendra Modi works best in states such as Manipur.
Countless voters and political analysts in the run up to the two-phase polls in Manipur have
said that what perhaps matters most for the electorate in Manipur is who rules in Delhi.
"This is what matters, who rules in Delhi. But some in the BJP will not be happy as the saffron
party could not win around 40 seats. That was their target," says Mary Haokip, a college student in
Imphal.
Over the years, this factor had given advantage to the Congress.
In fact, the trends show NPP of Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma is leading in several segments and its vote share
stood at 16.89. In contrast the Congress vote share dropped to 16.71 while the BJP's vote share has increased
to 37.5 percent.
In 2017, the Congress vote share was 35.1 percent and BJP had polled 36.3 percent.
The Meiteis have been a firmly patriotic community and for ages have maintained social and cultural ties with
the Hindu tradition and culture. But the BJP's electoral success in 2017 and 2022 and also its governance
did not have much to do with Hindutva politics.
In contrast the RSS as a mentor organisation committing itself to education and welfarism and the BJP
with its political programmes have been working hard in Manpur for decades now.
It certainly goes to the credit of BJP's poll management during the first tenure of Narendra Modi's
prime ministership that the saffron party's vote share in Manipur increased from two percent in 2012, to
36.3 percent in 2017. In all these, the role of Meitei voters has been significant.
In terms of factors those influenced this year's polls, the state government under N Biren Singh has
been proactive in terms of delivery and good governance.
Just to cite one example, the School Fagathansi Mission is an initiative launched by the Biren Singh
led dispensation to improve the education sector in the state. This Mission covered 60 schools and it increased
25 percent of students’ enrollment in Government schools.
Local citizens in Imphal and townships such as Churachandpur say the BJP and even the RSS leaders from beginning
made it a point to highlight rather clearly that they will work on the social front bring improvement in education,
health sector and roads.
BJP insiders say around 15 Sangh-inspired organisations and the BJP veterans were active in Manipur
since late eighties.
For long, the people had their 'freedom' to decide their own political strategies and
decisions and hence prior to 2017, the Congress could do well.
"Meiteis were always happy to see the manner RSS and other Sangh-inspired organisations took
up social work and remained faceless and away from publicity. Even tribals and non-Hindus like
Christians were impressed," says a local businessman in Imphal.
In fact, old timers of Manipur know well there have been leaders like Jagdamba Mall who possibly
spent more than three decades in Nagaland-Manipur region.
In the health sector, under CM's Health for All and Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana
(PMJAY), 8.09 lakhs beneficiaries had been enrolled and 1.1 lakh beneficiaries had received free
treatment worth Rs 123 crore rupees till October 2021.
Of course there is an issue vis-a-vis demand of the Meitei community for Scheduled Tribe status, the Chief
Minister has stated - "The State Government has never sidelined the ST demand for Meiteis". Th new regime
will have to handle that.
In December 2019, President Ram Nath Kovind gave his nod to introduction of Inner Line Permit in Manipur.
The Meitei community and overwhelming of them - women - had been very vocal demanding implementation of
ILP in the state. The Manipur Assembly under N Biren Singh also had in 2018 passed a
Manipur People’s Protection Bill that defines 'Manipuris' and 'non-Manipuris' and seeks to control
flow of 'outsiders'.
Among the projects inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Jan 4 at the state capital
Imphal is the landmark Steel Bridge built over Barak River. The project fulfills the long awaited demands
of the people. This will ensure a seamless year round connectivity between Imphal and Silchar in the
Cachar district of Assam.
The road link to Imphal at present is via Kohima in Nagaland and commuters and truckers
often face multiple types of challenges.
Out of an estimated 23 lakh population, there would be about 13 lakh Meitei Hindus and 1,67,000 Meitei
Muslims. Even Muslim Meiteis are firmly with their Hindu brethren and would steadfastly oppose 'disintegration'
of Manipur state.
Those in the know of things say in fact, the mega push for early solution to the Naga problem was given in recent weeks
by Nagaland Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio. The BJP's comfortable win in Manipur without depending on allies like
Naga People's Front (NPF) would make the sail easy for the saffron party.
There will not be arm twisting or pressure tactics from Naga legislators.
ends
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