Worst fear is 'Russian failures' will make Putin pursue 'unrestricted' war

Putinism is the new debate and not without good reasons.

New Delhi

Paradox of war times often differs from what we see during normal times.

Now the 'worst fear' from the Russia-Ukraine conflict is if Vladimir Putin falters and
fails on ground in the face of stiff fight by UKraine people and forces, he could actually take the road to 'unrestricted war' and use of nuke powers.

These would often cause bigger troubles ahead and worse disasters at the global stage.
There are various pros and cons involved in the entire warfare now.

Putin with defence minister Sergei Shoigu, and chief of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov. snap:
Alexei Nikolsky/AP/The Guardian

The western world's response has been bolder and more harsh than perhaps presumed by Putin.

He might have presumed a quick fall by UKranians. But all stakeholders and more importantly 

the people and the president Volodymyr Zelenskyy are so far 'undeterred'.

There could be now 'irritation' creeping in the Putin camp and gradually these could lead to frustration. 

"A hampered Kremlin could lead to a desperate Putin, especially as his options of off-ramps and 

face-saving close down," says Mathieu Boulegue, an expert on Russia, from The Royal Institute of International 

Affairs, London.

It is true Zelenskiy is not bullied. He reportedly turned down the American offer to evacuate him, 

saying: “I need ammunition, not a ride.”

It goes without stating that Zelenskiy’s courage in the face of overwhelming brute force has fortified 

Ukrainians now defending their country against invaders.

On the other hand, Putin could 'reshuffle' his military leaders and close advisors. But if these too do not work, 

this could lead to even more dangerous and irrational decisions being made by Putin.

From a point of military analysis, it could be stated that Ukraine’s air defence is still standing, 

"thus denying Russia the superiority Moscow would have hoped to achieve quickly".

Now Putin's two biggest challenges are how he would manage the economy as 'isolation' of

Moscow grows and also deal with the 'counter-psychological ops' of Ukranians.

Of course, chalIenges to Putinism will grow sooner when the impact of international sanctions start 

having severe consequences for ordinary Russian citizens.

Will Putinism end soon ? Some say - 'yes' !

When sanctions bite and hard times hit the country, people will lose their fear. 

Sergey Faldin, a writer and podcaster based in Tbilisi, Georgia writes

"The solace for young Russians like me is that Putin is also digging his own grave in Ukraine.....People are saying they feel guilty about being Russian. People are burning their passports on camera".

Some have posted on social networks, - I am Russian but Putin is not my president.

Perhaps ordinary people in Russia do not endorse war. Not surprisingly, on the first day of the conflict, 

almost 1,000 protesters were jailed across Russia for walking outside with posters written - “I don’t want war".

Now take another view. The reason for concern could be Putin’s state of mind. 

His rhetoric is becoming more extreme by the day, and the spectacles of his cabinet meetings are disturbing, various reports say.

 "There is speculation about the effect Covid isolation had on his mind. His inner circle now only comprises hardliners, and the information he is provided with may be skewed," says a piece in 'The Guardian'.  

ends 

At critical juncture of global crisis, Quad Summit on Thursday

New Delhi 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will participate along with US President Joe Biden and Prime Ministers of Australia Scott Morrison and Fumio Kishida of Japan in a Quad Leaders' virtual meeting on Thursday, March 3. 

"The Leaders will have an opportunity to continue their dialogue after the September 2021 Summit in Washington DC. They will exchange views and assessments about important developments in the Indo-Pacific," an MEA statement said.

The Quad Leaders will also review ongoing efforts to implement the Leaders’ initiatives announced as part of the Quad's contemporary and positive agenda.

There is much change in the global geo-global polity in the last few days and hours

after Russia has attacked Ukraine on Feb 24.

Russia along with China have been vocal and always taken exception to the formation of Quad.

The platform came into being in 2017 November at The Philippines capital, Manila, when Donald Trump,

PM Modi had met the then leaders from Japan and Australia and announced the formation of the Quad structure.

India has time and again asserted that the Quad - floated by the coming together of India, Australia, Japan and the US - is not something like 'Asian NATO'.

"Using words like Asian Nato etc, this is a sort of mind game which people are playing. That kind of NATO mentality has never been India’s. If it has been there in Asia before, I think it’s in other countries, not in mine,” External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar had said in April 2021 addressing the Raisina Dialogue in Delhi. 

India and China have abstained during UNSC and UNGA voting on the latest Russia-Ukraine conflict.

ends 

UCAN report

Mizo Catholic nuns among Indians stranded in Ukraine

Sisters Rosela Nuthangi and Ann Frida are from the Missionaries of Charity and hail from Mizoram in the northeast

Two Indian nuns of the Missionaries of Charity congregation are among thousands of Indians, mostly students, stranded in Ukraine since the invasion by Russia.

Sisters Rosela Nuthangi and Ann Frida originally hail from Mizoram, a Christian-dominated state in northeast India.

Church sources in Mizoram said that Sister Frida was working in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine.

She had joined the congregation founded by St. Teresa of Kolkata in 1998 and was sent to Ukraine in 2015, said her elder brother Dengdailova, an official of St. Mary's Parish Church in Mizoram’s capital Aizawl.

A senior state government official said they have no information of any other Mizo people stranded in Ukraine.

The government of India has deployed multiple flights and is bearing the expenditure for the safe return of stranded Indians.

The evacuation efforts were intensified after Naveen Shekharappa Gyanagoudar, a 21-year-old medical student from southern Karnataka state, died due to shelling in Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine on March 1.

A flight from Poland carrying 170 students arrived in New Delhi on March 2. Several of them walked kilometers before crossing the Ukraine-Poland border.

Olika Mlato, a 21-year-old medical student from Nagaland, who arrived in New Delhi, said, she had to walk two days to reach the Poland border.

Some 20,000 Indians including many students, mainly pursuing degrees in medicine, reside in Ukraine.

Nearly 60 percent or around 12,000 have already left Ukraine while over 2,000 are being brought back to India, officials said.

“Over the next three days, 26 flights have been scheduled to bring Indian citizens. Apart from Bucharest and Budapest, airports in Poland and the Slovak Republic will also be used to operate the flights,” Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla said.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has presided over multiple high-level meetings with his aides to ensure the return of stranded Indians.

India has abstained from voting on the Ukraine crisis at the UN Security Council.

Shringla defended India's move. “In the United Nations we take positions that are based on certain careful considerations, and certainly we do regard the merits of each and every case that comes before us ... [and] take decisions in our best interest," he said.

India, which has friendly ties with both the US and Russia, is finding itself at a crossroads.

While the US is India's crucial strategic partner, especially in the context of New Delhi's belligerent stance against China, Russia is India's old friend and major defense supplier.