The dynamics of Uttar Pradesh politics ought to be understood from three key perspectives. Take 2017 as one bench. The two other base or bench for poll strategists would be 2022 and of course 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
The Samajwadi Party and Congress alliance did extremely well in 2024 parliamentary elections and hence this 'base' is important to make any commentaries on the coming elections in March 2027.
There was a strong structural change in the 2024 battle and this has made the BJP poll strategists worried despite the bravado that they have the advantage. The Samajwadi won 43 seats including Faizabad that houses Ram Temple at Ayodhya while the BJP seats dropped from 64 to 36.
This means the BSP was marginalised and in the process, the UP battle is largely bi-polar between BJP-led NDA and the Samajwadi-Congress combo. Why we say this because 87 per cent of votes were shared by these two alliances largely between the BJP and the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party. The difference in votes also was too close 0.3 per cent.
In terms of assembly seats - if the break up is drawn from the outcome in 2024 parliamentary polls - around 225 voted for Samajwadi-Congress and 175 were for the BJP or NDA.
This makes the Bheem party and AIMIM alliance more important than anything else.
Now let's take closer view of Muslim voting pattern in 2024. It is estimated that around 88 per cent Muslims had voted for the Samajwadi Party. The AIMIM will pose a threat this 'safety net' of Akhilesh Yadav. Moreover, AIMIM will field all Muslim candidates and that way Akhilesh too will be pushed to increase his percentage of Muslim candidates.
But as soon as that happens; the elections will move towards 80:20 percentage equations as suggested by the chief minister Yogi Adityanath.
Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM is seen as a new party which is gaining attraction among Muslim youths in several states. Owaisi's message that - "we will lay down carpets for so-called secular parties like Samajwadi Party or Congress" actually make a lot of sense for Muslim youths. There is another catch.
The Muslim voters know once AIMIM candidates win (although prospects seem very slim as of now in Uttar Pradesh); the elected Muslim legislators will never do any business with the BJP.
The Muslim population by and large and the youths in particular are concerned about decline in Muslim representations in state legislatures across India. The AIMIM ensures all its candidates are Muslims.
Then comes sub-regional politics of Uttar Pradesh. In Western Uttar Pradesh, the BJP is too strong and the Muslims know that the Samajwadi Party is not in a position to give the Lotus party a good fight. Thus, they may not hesitate to repose faith in the AIMIM.
Then in eastern Uttar Pradesh; the caste factor is yet again expected to be a dominant factor. But in Avadh region - with about 45 plus seats - the Muslims have sizable presence but they may prefer AIMIM to Samajwadi Party.
Now taking Dalit votes into account. There are two segments in this. Jatav Dalits are with the BSP and non-Jatav Dalits had favoured SP-Congress alliance in 2024. In contrast; the non-Jatav Dalit voters had voted for BJP in 2017 and 2022 assembly polls.
In general, 50-55 seats are those where the Bheem Party-AIMIM can tilt the balance either way. Largely, this alliance is seen as a "damager" and it is also expected that they would play vote-cutter parties to the SP-Congress alliance.
As a sample, we may note in 2022 - when AIMIM contested alone - there are five seats in a particular region where the presence of Owasis party candidates ensured the defeat of Samajwadi Party. In 2022, contesting alone, the AIMIM had fielded candidates in 95 constituencies and everywhere the security deposits were forfeited.
ends
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