The womb of time holds the answer.
The 2026 polls could redefine how openly religion shapes voter mobilisation and policy narratives.
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| Sabarimala Temple ; Handling and Mishandling has been part of Kerala politics |
Elections in India are no longer fought purely on development models or economic vision. Across the nation’s largest democracy, religious identity has emerged as the defining electoral axis — and nowhere is this contradiction more vivid than in Kerala.
Vijayan: The ‘Mundu Modi’ Paradox
In Kerala, whatever the outcome, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan may well emerge as the man of the match. His critics have coined a telling nickname: “mundu udatha Modi” — essentially, Narendra Modi in a mundu, the traditional white garment worn around the waist in Kerala. The label captures a striking ideological blur: a Marxist strongman increasingly borrowing the aesthetic and political grammar of the Hindu right.
The peculiarities of Kerala politics are difficult to explain by conventional logic.
How else do you account for pro-Hindutva BJP actively courting Christians,
the Congress sharing a coalition with the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) while holding together a fragile minority alliance,
and the Marxists desperately trying to win over Hindu voters? The CPI-M, feeling pressure from BJP’s growing acceptability in the state, can no longer afford to alienate the Hindu majority.
This is the “New India” dynamic Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath once described:
“It is our success that Mamata Banerjee is now forced to chant Hindu mantras. This is the change we talk about.” Whether it is Mamata in Bengal, Rahul Gandhi in Parliament, or Vijayan in Thiruvananthapuram — every major leader now calibrates their Hindu outreach carefully. Critics say Vijayan has tinted the communist red flag with unmistakable shades of saffron.
A Decade of LDF (read P Vijayan) Dominance — And What’s at Stake
The 81-year-old Vijayan, born in 1945, has kept Congress out of power in Kerala for a full decade. Seeking a rare third consecutive term, he is just one year away from surpassing CPI-M predecessor E.K. Nayanar as Kerala’s longest-serving chief minister.
His political acumen was on full display in 2021, when the Left Front defied anti-incumbency trends to retain power — breaking Kerala’s near-unbroken tradition of alternating governments every five years.
But the CPI-M’s red bastions are shrinking nationally. In West Bengal and Tripura — once communist strongholds — the party has been badly marginalised. Kerala is the last fortress. A UDF victory here would be a significant symbolic blow to the Left.
Christians, increasingly pragmatic, are evaluating parties on governance delivery and community bargaining power. That makes this region the true bellwether of April 9.
Relations between CPI-M and Congress, cordial at the national level within the INDIA alliance, are toxic in Kerala.
Kerala law minister P. Rajeev has gone so far as to call Rahul Gandhi a “Sangh Parivar stooge” in the state. Rahul, who represented Wayanad from 2014 to 2024, vacated the seat — now held by his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.
The Battle for Central Kerala
The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) remains anchored by Christians — especially Catholics — and Muslims, with the IUML as its constant ally. BJP has made inroads through civic polls but remains a relatively weak player in state assembly contests. Its outreach to Christians is widely seen as tokenism. Central Kerala — spanning Kottayam, Ernakulam and Thrissur — remains the decisive battleground where community calculations are most complex and competitive.
Assam: Infrastructure vs. Grievance
In Assam, BJP’s strong organisational network and infrastructure record dominate the narrative — roads, highways, flyovers and bridges have visibly transformed the state under CM Himanta Biswa Sarma.
But beneath the surface simmer real grievances: joblessness, educated youth migrating out, and unresolved questions over Scheduled Tribe status and identity. Congress leader Pawan Khera’s last-minute allegations against Sarma’s family added late drama to the campaign.
For Congress, the stakes are existential in both Kerala and Assam — states from which it was ousted in 2016. Whether accumulated anger can translate into votes will only be known when the counting begins.
The womb of time holds the answer.
ends
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