The calendar year 2025 started for India .... on an optimistic note as Donald Trump returned to office in Washington. It was presumed and not without good reasons that old bonhomie and personal rapport between US President and Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be smooth and defining.
But the honeymoon died within months if not weeks.
Family members of Dipu Chandra Das killed in Bangladesh on Dec 18 night
Trump focused on his Tariff diplomacy and expected certain things. He has been extremely ambitious to win Nobel Prize for peace. His Ukraine-Russia efforts hardly showed results. Thus, from May onward he created bigger problems for Modi -- started claiming repeatedly that it was he -- who forced India of Modi and of course Pakistan to opt for ending the conflict after India had launched Operation Sindoor.
In India, the Congress and other opposition parties latched on to this much to the embarrassment of Modi they also discovered a rhyming phrase - 'Narender ... Surrender'. Of course; such slogans did not find resonance with the common people. One major test was election outcome in Bihar.
But diplomatically, PM had to walk-the-talk cleverly. He smartly 'embarrassed' Trump when he did not visit Washington. Trump had actually laid a trap for a possible meeting between 'Field Marshal Munir' and Narendra Modi. The Indian Prime Minister was too smart for all that.
But by the end of the calendar year - for a change neither US nor the US were amid headlines. It is Bangladesh. Of course -- the 'Deep State' angle and also China-Pakistan-Bangladesh axis come into all that.
News of Hadi’s death has triggered a wave of violent chaos in Bangladesh. On the night of December 18, an angry mob attacked the offices of Prothom Alo and The Daily Star, two of the country’s leading newspapers, known for their progressive and liberal editorial stance. The attackers destroyed property and engaged in arson.
They also vandalized Chhayanaut, a renowned cultural institution known for promoting Bengali music, culture, and tradition. The attackers claimed the institutions were linked to India and supportive of the ousted AL. In Chittagong, protesters also demonstrated and threw stones at the office of the Indian Assistant High Commission, prompting police to intervene and disperse the crowd near the mission.
Multiple Indian visa centres have been shut down in Bangladesh.
India has to handle things cautiously on multiple fronts. The coming elections will be a critical inflection point for a strategic balance of South Asia and India's role in that. Dhaka's growing complicity with Islamabad and Beijing may actually lead to marginalisation of New Delhi.
Hence, how New Delhi's foreign policy engine room -- led by PM Modi and supported by Minister S Jaishankar and NSA Ajit Doval - manages the transitory phase through well calibrated with Bangladesh (chiefly party BNP) and vigilance vis-a-vis security will reorient the most consequential bilateral relationship in the region.
This is the time for pragmatic foreign policy. Sheikh Hasina and bonhomie with Awami League are now of nostalgic values at least for the time being. New Delhi needs to adjust to the call of the new era. Therefore; it ought to be understood that besides focusing on security concerns; for Team Modi -- the challenge is also to prepare for a long term transition/shift for more result oriented engagements with Bangladesh.
A parliamentary panel led by Congress lawmaker, Shashi Tharoor, has said that the current situation in Bangladesh is India’s most serious strategic challenge since the Liberation War of 1971.
Dhaka is altogether a new world today. The old political and security order has collapsed and there is politically hyper sensitive India-bashing. Moreover, there is also the rise of --
** radical Islamic forces,
*** latent support of western powers including the US Deep State and
*** - the entry of Pakistan ending years of estrangement.
Amid escalating tensions, Lt Gen R C Tiwari, General Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Eastern Command, Kolkata; visited border outposts at Belonia in South Tripura. He was also accompanied among others by GoC, Spear Corps Lt Gen Abhijeet Pendharkar and senior officers from the Army, Assam Rifles, and Border Security Force.
Lt Gen Tiwari reviewed ground-level security arrangements and lauded the troops for their vigilance and professionalism in safeguarding the international border.
Four northeastern states - Tripura (856 km), Meghalaya (443 km), Mizoram (318 km) and Assam (263 km) share a 1,880-km border with Bangladesh.
The BSF has been guarding the India-Bangladesh border.
Former diplomat Veena Sikri has blamed Jamaat-e-Islami in Bangladesh for attempting to inflame tensions during the transition period, arguing that the group has realised just before elections that it lacks genuine popular support and is therefore resorting to agitation and polarisation.
She criticised the interim leadership for failing to respond decisively to provocative statements and actions.
ends
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