Politics cannot be without populism, Modi's 'repeal farm laws' move is populist at the end of the day

The Sikh protest against farm laws gained currency even overseas. As it is PM Narendra Modi does not have a good image or reputation among Muslims, this suits his pro-Hindutva image for domestic politics. But the Prime Minister has been cautious about his 'image' and 'proximity' towards Sikhs and Christians.

PM Modi met Pope Francis recently and also invited him to visit India. The outreach to Sikhs now only strengthens this argument.

In fact, a former Punjab Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh - himself a Sikh and a former military officer - also warned about the Sikh alienation and held two separate meetings with Modi's trusted lieutenants Home Minister Amit Shah and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.

There were also suggestions that some anti-forces (a possible reference to Pakistan) were trying to back the Khalistani movement. In 1984, the anti-India movement of Sikhs had resulted in the assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and also Indian army storming of the sacred Golden Temple at Amritsar.

Even Governor of Meghalaya, Satyapal Malik, also a former Governor in Kashmir, had cautioned the Modi government on the apprehension of fueling anguish and grievances amongst Sikhs.

Now, how much would Modi's last minute efforts alter the ground situation remains to be seen. On the other realm, the repeal of the laws would only hamper India's much needed reform journey.

"It marks the story of democracy and good governance getting marginalized and vanquished as against the anarchy and street politics," says former Nagaland Minister Thomas Ngullie. 

Politics cannot be without populism. But Narendra Modi's popularity-drive was tinged with an element of 'risk taking' ability and a stronger element of his determination. The killer instinct.

India's Prime Minister is known for his macho-decisive leader image. But on November 19, he made a dramatic retreat announcing the roll back of three contentious farm laws. 

The laws passed by Parliament in 2020 were outright rejected by the opposition parties including by the communists, provincial regional parties and the principal opposition Congress.

The three legislation sought to open agri sector for small and marginal farmers so that they could sell their products outside 'government-controlled markets.

Farmers in some states such as Sikh-dominated Punjab are used to government patronage. They do not like the concept of free and open market determining the prices. Over the years, they have lavished at the cost of consumers and taxpayers. And even prices have been kept up, and also many a times the produces would be destroyed in open fields and storage. 

India was looking for agri reform.

The federal government's combative mood to get the Bills passed had also alienated Akali Dal, Modi's pro-Hindutva Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) oldest ally.

More importantly, Akali Dal run by a prominent Sikh politician family 'Badals' is essentially a party supported by Sikh cadres and foot soldiers. The farmers protest outside national capital Delhi was launched on Nov 26, 2020.

Thus when Prime Minister Narendra Modi made announcement on Nov 19, Friday that the laws would be repealed, it was worth taking note that the day coincided with the birth anniversary of Guru Nanak Dev, the founder of the Sikh religion.

The alienation of Sikhs was a major and could be possibly the key decisive factor that led the Prime Minister Modi swallow his own pride.

"Modi is not a kind of leader who makes retreat every month or year. He had immense compulsion. The Prime Minister hopes to regain the confidence of the farmers in north India as two important states Punjab and Uttar Pradesh go to the polls in March 2022. His announcement on an important and solemn day for Sikhs shows India's assertive Prime Minister wants to regain the lost confidence of the Sikhs," says political observer Ramakanto Shanyal.

Of course, the electoral politics has driven Modi's decision. Uttar Pradesh, India's most populated province,

is the bell weather state that sends 80 lawmakers to the Lower House of Parliament, Lok Sabha.

Modi though is a native of western state of Gujarat represents Uttar Pradesh as the representative from

religious hub Varanasi.

Of course, as a political creature, both he and BJP want to draw political dividends. The alienation

of Sikhs had left him worried.

"An impression went both within the country and overseas that the Hindu-Sikh division has widened

again like in the 1980s. The three farm laws seeking to throw open the market for greater 

private investment in agri sector were being dubbed as anti-Sikhs. The security agencies had 

also warned," says analyst Vidyarthi Kumar

"The Prime Minister tried his best to take the country forward with the reform strategy, and now

he has shown courage to bow down before people's wish," Naga leader Thomas Ngullie says. 

The Baptist Christian leader further says - the street-protest politics has thrived in India in the past also

when the Left regime's industrialisation policy was opposed tooth and nail and finally brought an 

end to the communists' rule in the state of West Bengal.

To start with, this school of thought says - the food processing companies would directly feel the heat of

the new move as this sector was slowly opening up.

Anil Ghanwat, an agriculture expert and a member of Supreme Court appointed panel that 'unsuccessfully'

worked to bring the farmers' stir to end, laments: "No federal government will dare to bring much needed

reforms in the coming 50 years and majority of farmers will remain poor". 

"Over 83 per cent of India's household are dependent on agriculture but the sector's contribution to country's GDP is minimum. I am not against the protesting farmers, but the farmers from the states in southern and eastern India who did not agitate have been punished," laments Ngullie.

These are of course not new in India.

In the words of Late Prime Minister Chandrashekhar, "a few hundreds of Indians misguided by forces within and outside the country can block roads and railway tracks and get their demands fulfilled".

He had spoken these words at the critical juncture of India's economic history - 1990-91 - when the desperation for reform had set in.

The Indian government had to keep gold overseas to tide over the IMF-loan crisis.

The major crisis of 1990s fed by ill-advised economic policies of mid-1980s finally 

pushed the P V Narasimha Rao regime to push the reform in 1991. 

Sadly, now the reform trajectory has been taken 10-15 years back.

Those who lament over the fact that farm reforms have been derailed also

say that the entire planning process in agri sector has been hampered.

Over depending on foodgrains alone had taken away Indian farmers from

cultivating other products like vegetables, pulses and fruits.

At the same time in some western states, there is over dependence on sugarcane

cultivation - which again takes away bulk of irrigated water and electricity. 

The new bills - now abandoned - could have addressed some of these issues.

"The status quo on the farm front is not sustainable," commented 'The Economic Times'

in its edit.

Those who are rejoicing farmers' win or a case of 'Modi surrender', should be more careful now about

side affects vis-a-vis power politics and populism.

In 2014-15, after the Land Acquisition Bill was scuttled due to opposition resistance, while the 'reforms' had gone 

for a toss, in order to keep his popularity on track, Modi had started falling more and more on the pro-Hindutva agenda.

ends 

(My piece in UCA News)

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India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi is known for his macho-decisive leader image. But on Nov. 19, he made a dramatic retreat by announcing the rollback of three contentious farm laws.

The laws passed by parliament in 2020 were outrightly rejected by opposition parties including the principal opposition Congress, communists and provincial regional parties.

The legislation sought to open the sector to small and marginal farmers so that they could sell their products outside government-controlled markets.

Farmers in states such as Sikh-dominated Punjab in northern India are used to government patronage. They resent the concept of a free and open market determining prices, suspecting it will help big firms to exploit farmers.

Over the years, they have done well at the cost of consumers and taxpayers. Prices have been kept up even though produce would often be destroyed in open fields and storage. India was looking for agricultural reform.

The federal government's combative mood while getting the farms bills passed in parliament had alienated the regional Sikh-centric party, Akali Dal, which was one of the oldest allies of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The farmers' protest at the gates of the national capital Delhi was launched on Nov. 26, 2020, and Akali Dal could not dissociate itself from it. The alienation of Sikhs had left both PM Modi and the BJP worried and finally led to the farm laws being repealed.

Modi's announcement coincided with the birth anniversary of Guru Nanak Dev, founder of the Sikh religion. “Modi is not a leader who makes a retreat every month or year. He had immense compulsions,” said political observer Ramakanto Shanyal.

There was suspicion that anti-India forces (possibly from Pakistan) could attempt to revive the separatist Khalistani movement, which caused much bloodshed in Punjab in the early eighties leading to the assassination of then prime minister Indira Gandhi.

Former Punjab chief minister Amarinder Singh, a Sikh and former military officer who recently lost the stewardship of the state due to a decision by the Congress top leadership, warned of Sikh alienation during meetings with Modi, federal Home Minister Amit Shah and mational security adviser Ajit Doval.

Meghalaya governor Satyapal Malik cautioned the government against fueling anguish and unrest among Sikhs and the larger farmer community.

Shanyal felt the prime minister may have wanted to regain the confidence of farmers in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, which go to the polls in March 2022.

Academic Vidyarthi Kumar concurred. “An impression went both within the country and overseas that the Hindu-Sikh division had widened again like in the 1980s. The three farm laws were being dubbed as anti-Sikh,” he said.

Uttar Pradesh in the north is India's most populous state and sends 80 lawmakers to the Lok Sabha or lower house of parliament. Modi, though a native of Gujarat in the west, chose Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh as his constituency.

Farmers, especially from the western belt of the state, had joined the Sikhs in Punjab in protesting the farm laws.

The Sikh protest even gained currency overseas. Modi’s Hindu hardline image may earn him dividends in domestic politics, but he’s cautious when it comes to foreign lands.

The prime minister recently met Pope Francis and invited him to visit India. The outreach to Sikhs followed and it now remains to be seen how the minority communities respond.

The repeal of the farm laws will hamper India's reform journey, though.

"It is the story of democracy and good governance getting marginalized and vanquished by anarchy and street politics," said former Nagaland minister Thomas Ngullie.

The Baptist Church leader said Modi had tried his best to take the country forward but had to bow down before people's wishes, which he did courageously.

“I am not against the protesting farmers, but the farmers from the southern and eastern Indian states who did not agitate have been punished,” Ngullie told UCA News.

Anil Ghanwat, an agriculture expert and member of the Supreme Court-appointed panel on farm laws, said: “No federal government will dare to bring much-needed reforms in the coming 50 years and a majority of farmers will remain poor."

There are others who feel that not only have farm reforms been derailed but the entire planning for a future agricultural sector has been hampered.

Farmers' groups and opposition parties welcomed the prime minister’s announcement after expressing solidarity with the protesters and accusing the Modi government of bulldozing the laws with its brute majority in the house.

Opposition parties claimed the farm laws were against the interests of farmers and anti-poor. Only big capital stood to benefit by establishing its monopoly over buying, storing and selling farm produce at will, for a profit.

The year-long episode seems to have taught Modi that his arrogance cannot sustain. Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, another friend-turned-foe of the BJP, said the government should take all stakeholders and opposition parties into confidence to avoid such embarrassment in the future.

Some were reminded of another signal agricultural reform measure introduced by Modi since ascending to power in 2014 — the land acquisition bill. The Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement (Amendment) Bill, 2015, lapsed after being passed by the lower house as it did not get past the Rajya Sabha or upper house of parliament due to opposition resistance.

On land acquisition and farm laws, the Indian government’s reform process has gone for a toss, leaving Modi to fall back more and more on the pro-Hindu agenda of his party.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official editorial position of UCA News.)