They are the old wine but they want to make a critical difference to Nagaland politics by getting into a new bottle.
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Given their experience and ability to draw “resources” and good contacts in Delhi and elsewhere in the northeast; it is anybody’s guess now whether the Forum will truly emerge as a formidable challenger to Neiphiu Rio’s leadership.
Former legislators and parliamentarians from Nagaland have set up a Forum and would soon draw out a goal-oriented roadmap for the coming Assembly elections in the state.
All options are open. In the past they backed Congress candidate K.L. Chishi (a former Chief Minister) during Lok Sabha elections of 2019.
However, they understand the political reality of 2022 and the near “invincibility factor” of the BJP at the national level.
“We are not against the BJP……Nagas as well as rest of India are passing through a challenging phase. At this juncture especially in the context of working for peace and solution to end the insurgency and political issue, Nagas need to be friendly to the ruling party in Delhi,” said a key leader of the Forum.
The Forum of former lawmakers would be meeting in Dimapur on Thursday, August 4, and will draw out further plans.
“We may decide to workout a formula with as many as 21 NDPP candidates who lost 2018 polls but are now very keen to look for fresh and good options,” a Forum insider told IANS.
The NDPP headed by Chief Minister Rio as of now has support of 44 MLAs of its own but four of them would be denied tickets as the party has pledged to contest only 40 seats and leave 20 for the BJP.
Between 2018 and now, legislator elected from JD(U) G. Kaito and NPP MLA L. Khumo had joined NDPP and are also serving as Ministers under Rio.
The state Housing Minister Tongpang Ozüküm had own as an Independent candidate from
Angetyongpang Assembly constituency and defeated Rio’s trusted colleague Alemtemshi Jamir.
There is truly a problem of plenty for Rio-led NDPP as the 21 NPF legislators two months back defected and joined the party.
The former lawmakers’ Forum does not want to disturb BJP’s 20:40 seat share formula with the NDPP of Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio but says – “We want to draw out plans where we can provide more winnable candidates and participate actively in campaigning and drawing a mass level support”.
“As of now, our formula is based on hardcore political commitment and all out efforts would be made to resolve the Naga issue and bring a purposeful end to the long negotiations,” another source told IANS.
“The Forum is not for power game. Let there be good and alternative leadership to the present one led by Neiphiu Rio; but for an effective drawing of roadmap with JD(U) or the BJP, one senior member of the Forum should get organisational role for party presidentship”.
The idea is that the Forum’s principles and ideologies ought to be reflected in the political manifesto and other programmes. “If they do not want to disturb the equilibrium, our Form leader(s) should get chairmanship and other key roles in the campaign committee,” said a Forum insider.
“We want to remain in the background as of August 2022 because we do not have even an iota of doubts on the future prospect of Naga peace talks. If negotiating parties that is the militant groups and the Government of India wants to go ahead with a Solution to bring peace, we will first insist that it should happen,” said another leader.
He, however, drew a line of caution – “But talks should be purposeful and not merely in the name of negotiations. But we are against negotiations which are not making any progress since 2019″.
Keeping the negotiations on but not arriving at any solution had led to increase in extortion from civilian population. The Naga guerrilla groups have argued in public that such extortion is legitimate taxation.
The reference is to the bitter fact that the NSCN-IM and central government’s peace talks remain stalled due to the twin demands of Flag and a separate Naga constitution.
Another leader in the Forum said – “The present NDPP-led coalition dispensation has failed to deliver peace and solution. It is a known fact. Perhaps the ruling elites have tried to hoodwink the central BJP leadership with another set of promises. BJP has given one more opportunity to the NDPP”.
The Forum does not mind that, he said adding – “We have therefore tried to caution the BJP to be careful. But if a solution comes before August 15, 2022 we are all for it and the Forum leaders will be the happiest of all”.
The Forum – as of now – can have “a unique political adjustment and draw our shared political strategy” essentially with three parties – the BJP and (or) two other saffron partners at the national level – the JD(U) and NPP led by Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma.
“So, this so-called seat adjustment alliance between BJP and NDPP (20:40) does not bother us. We are for a bigger cause,” says a key strategist in the group.
“We have to get rid of a regime that has failed people on several fronts….There is nothing personal about it.
But after 20 years of being in power and Chief Minister for 18 years, it is time for Neiphiu Rio to redraw the map of his political journey,” he remarked.
“I think, Rio should take the message sportingly,” said one former minister adding, “we will also broad base the Forum by encouraging more women and sitting MLAs, retired bureaucrats, Ministers and intellectuals to join us if they want to follow our ideologies and principles”.
As of now two senior leaders and former Chief Ministers K.L. Chishi and veteran S C Jamir are not yet part of the Forum.
“But we have four women leaders….It is an inclusive club and in the past this Forum has coordinated well with Gaon Burah Federation and a Committee of 14 Naga Tribes,” said the Forum leader.
A few leaders on behalf of the Forum will call on top leaders from JD-U and BJP in Delhi after August 15 and will share their roadmap with them.
One leader clarified that the move to back Congress nominee in 2019 Lok Sabha polls was based on “political ground reality of the time”.
“Now in 2022, we feel strongly that only the BJP-led government in the centre under Prime Minister Narendra Modi can bring in the solution….and it should not be delayed,” the leader mentioned.
Over 60 ex-legislators, former parliamentarians, intending candidates, some sitting legislators, retired bureaucrats and young politicians would be working to “form the next government” in the state, they insist.
On July 26, the BJP leaders Amit Shah and Himanta Biswa Sarma met Nagaland Chief Minister Rio in Delhi and both the parties agreed for a NDPP-40 and BJP-20 seat share formula.
This was the same 2018 electoral seat share formula between two parties but four years back, the BJP’s strike rate was better (with 12 win out of 20) against 18 seats win by the NDPP which fielded 40 candidates.
There was some resentment in the Nagaland BJP over the announcement of new alliance in July but rebel leader and deputy Chief Minister Y Patton later endorsed the alliance saying it would bring in stability.
Significantly, the umbrella organisation of Naga rebels, NNPG, which is keen for an early solution has also opposed the BJP-NDPP alliance.
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(Nirendra Dev is a New Delhi-based journalist. He is also author of books, ‘The Talking Guns: North East India’ and ‘Modi to Moditva: An Uncensored Truth’. Views are personal)
IANS
Who will be 'unlucky four' from NDPP to miss the ticket?
NPP stalwart L.Khumo joined NDPP, so did Kaito of JD-U
New Delhi
The ruling NDPP in Nagaland has the next big question to face.
Who among the 44 present legislators would be 'unlucky four' to be deprived of the ticket?
Under the seat share formula, the NDPP can contest 40 seats while remaining 20 would be left to the BJP.
The saffron party on its part could possibly give one or two seats to its national and regional partners like JD(U) or NPP.
Of course, the call will be taken by the respective party leadership but the formula to decide such electoral strategies would be very interesting.
The NDPP fielded 40 candidates in 2018 also and could win 18.
Let us examine a few such possible formulae.
Among the 44 incumbent MLAs in NDPP -- 21 of them came from NPF. It could be simple if Chingwang Konyak-Neiphiu Rio duo asks T R Zeliang (G-21 leader) to suggest four such names.
That sounds too simple to be realistic. Moreover, giving such a freehand to one person (former CM T R Zeliang) may not be an advisable move at all.
Next the party could think of other legislators who defected post-2018 assembly polls. Some of them
might have been assured tickets.
G Kaito Aye was elected from Satakha on JD-U ticket. His victory margin in 2018 polls was 7168
and he has been winning the seat since 1998 when he first entered the assembly after the 'uncontested'
polls.
Moreover, the present Agriculture Minister is known for his close association with Chief Minister Rio and party
chief Chingwang.
Tongpang Ozüküm is minister of Housing and Mechanical and also a trusted lieutenant of the Chief Minister. He was elected as Independent MLA from Angetyongpang assembly constituency, a key segment in Mokokchung district once represented by senior leader Sentichuba.
More importantly, Tongpang had humbled NDPP's influential leader Alemtemshi Jamir by a narrow margin of 950 votes. Here Rio has to make a fine balance of making up his mind or he has already decided on the matter remains to be seen.
For his part, Alemtemshi told this journalist in 2019 - "Well, I think I was destined to face the mandate like the manner it came as many friends had advised me not to contest from two constituencies".
The NDPP website credits Alemtemshi for having "conceptualised and organised the first Hornbill Festival of Nagaland in 2000".
Today, the state's name is perhaps also synonymous with the Hornbill Festival. Alemstemshi also lost from
Mongoya seat to NPF's Ngangshi K Ao by a very modest margin of 348 votes.
Interestingly, while the Phek MLA Kuzholuzo Azo Nienu has been elected as the new leader of the NPF
Legislature Party after the desertion by G-21; Mongoya MLA Ngangshi K Ao is the NPF chief whip now.
NPF patriarch Shurhozelie Liezietsu later said - “We want to start our party NPF to stand on firm principles with
people who understand and wish to keep intact the stature of the party. Therefore, even if the number of its
MLAs are reduced to four; we are not discouraged”.
Of course, across India as a regional party, the NPF, is second only to DMK of Tamil Nadu.
After the G-21 defection, four NPF MLAs are Kuzholuzo Nienu, Khriehu Liezietsu, Ngangshi K Ao and Kezhiehyi Khalo.
Interestingly, S. Supongmeren Jamir of NPP had also contested in Mongoya but polled only 151 votes.
Imnatiba Jamir had won 2018 polls as NPP candidate from politically sensitive Arkakong constituency - onetime bastion of R C Chiten Jamir.
Many new things in Nagaland's electoral politics understandably came up from Arkakong.
In 2013, Nuklutoshi had won the seat as NPF nominee but he lost to Imnatiba by a slender margin of 793 votes only five years later.
Again, this would be also a tough decision for NDPP leadership to work on.
Next assembly segment to focus could be Thonoknyu wherein in 2018, L.Khumo Khiamniungan of Meghalaya CM Conrand Sangma-led NPP had won the seat by defeating S.Heno Khiamniungan of the NPF.
Here, the NDPP candidate was Y. P Chillio but his performance was not impressive. While NPP candidate Khumo had polled 51 per cent of votes; Chillio could manage only about 18 per cent.
Even the victory margin for NPP was a convincing gap of 4044.
Another interesting scene could emerge at the Pungro Kiphire assembly segment. This seat was given to BJP in the seat share formula but the saffron party nominee Lirimong Sangtam had finished third in 2020 bypolls.
While Independent T Yangseo Sangtam won the seat managing 8,747 (31.85%) of votes, the runner up too was another independent S. Kiusumew Yimchunger.
The BJP candidate's vote share was 20.63 percent.
Many more questions would be asked on these lines and many options explored.
Of course many weeks and about six months to go. Drama has just started unfolding. The NPF too will be doing its own calculation and so would be marginal players such as NPP, JD-U and Congress.
The answer to many such questions on electoral strategies - as the proverb goes - lies in the womb of time.
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