At times some pale eyes seemed to see more than any other eyes.
I interacted with my 'friend' during July trip to Manipur. I am unable to disclose much about him. He talks softly.
But his words carry carry surprising force - empowered by quick mind and intellect.
He told me - "Do not fall in love with Manipur ... we are heading for much bigger troubles". At this juncture - it is not advisable to share much about him.
He could be an 'Indian' (as is understood in north east); or a Kuki, a Naga or a Meitei.
The identity does not matter. What matters is his words -- "Manipur will continue to be the 'Hotbed' of insurgency ... in addition to ethnic conflicts and even religious rivalry".
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| Road to Profitability and Insurgency : Timer trade |
I said - "You must be indicating about Naga insurgency".
He skirted a direct reply. Perhaps; I understood; and left the matters at that. Back in country's capital and analysing last few weeks developments; I have no doubt that things have already changed a lot in Manipur.
Gradually 'radicalism' has been let loose. And there are "such elements" getting into civil society bodies. They give the message of being anti-Delhi; but they could be 'anti-India' in strictest sense of the term.
In fact, in the Naga hills of Manipur -- one topic that is being whispered around is the split in the NSCN-IM.
"It is a classic case of things getting 'derailed' due to 'mishandling," -- is one refrain I got during visit to Phaikoh village along the Myanmar border. The real tension is in Kamjong district and not much in Senapati or Ukhrul region.
Understandably, Ukhrul has 'more hardline structures' than Senapati -- I was told - and Kamjong district has more such protagonists than in Ukhrul.
The security forces are finding 'tracking' this new transition-regime quite challenging.
Timber business and money flow for the last three years have made things more complex.
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| Blogger in North East India |
No insurgency can survive without oxygen of cash flow; and this is being ensured by 'green large and strong' trees and timer business vis-a-vis Myanmar hamlets and 'no man's jungles'.
New Delhi is now convinced that many state apparatus have nexus with the Eastern Flank faction of the NSCN-IM. The 'split' might have weakened Hebron; but much to the chagrin of some agencies -- this episode has further complicated the rules of the militancy-games in Manipur.
H S Ramsan (also called Hanshi or 'Hangshi Tangkhul') is a former senior commander and now the 'effective' leader of the Myanmar-based Eastern Flank. In short -- he is a tough nut; and in further shorter version - he may throw up miserable times to all stakeholders -- Indian security forces and also the rival-militant bros.
The Eastern Flank at times is also 'rejoicing' the perception that from pro-Hebron Kohima; the 'polity' has graduated to "pro-Kohima Hebron". That means - Kohima protagonists too might have played some roles (albeit indirectly) to displease Hangshi and his compatriots.
Hence ....
The Game will slowly shift to electoral politics because in Manipur - it's in March 2027 while elections in Nagaland are due by March 2028.
New Delhi along with many small and regional parties in Nagaland and Manipur now believe that Hebron-NPF bonhomie is at its peak; -- demonstration wise or even at the 'saturation' stage.
This was further proved by V S Atem's statement that 'the Union MoS Home led panel' is "our idea".
Thus; as of now -- none is sure which way (or the political party) will the Eastern Flank support 'wave' blow.
Will it be Cock friendly at all ?
All eyes are slowly moving towards three civil society organisations in Manipur. One is - the United Naga Council,
the All Naga Students' Association, Manipur and the Naga Women's Union of Manipur.
The government agencies will be keen to enlist their 'support' to that peace and harmony is maintained and there is no major possibilities of street violence and chaos. In the past, in general the civil societies have cooperated with the official apparatus.
However, in the entire bargain - by March 2027 - the electoral battle of Manipur may make 'Hebron-Kohima politics' almost irrelevant. If the NPF cannot win five out of 10 Naga seats - the Lotus party will not hesitate to open channels with other Naga Independent MLAs or legislators from other parties.
In Naga areas, the Congress party is expected to do well -- with or without support from the state unit in Imphal.
There are other elements. Sometimes - we may witness turf war between factions both in Manipur and Nagaland. The perceived battle for the 'Nagalim' (united Nagas under one umbrella) may take turns and twists.
New Delhi is already expecting 'back push' after FNTA because Nagas of Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur will take a rather jaundiced view of things -- what happened with them since 2019. The civil 'Naga population' in Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh may also throw up questions for the NPF-BJP dispensation in Kohima.
This apprehension has alerted the BJP and perhaps also the Sanghparivar.
'Why was the Naga Solution delayed' must have appeared prominently in recent RSS deliberations with stakeholders and key leaders from the northeast.
The argument over 'pro-Kohima Hebron' is already a catchword of the Eastern Flank and this is another area -- the BJP is uncomfortable.
In 2024 - leaders of Eastern Flank had disapproved the firing in one of the Congress campaign and the plea was -- everyone has the right to fight election.
The NPF nominee Timothy Zimik ultimately lost the election to Congress candidate Alfred Arthur. Kohima sought to attribute the defeat to Hindutva politics of the BJP; but central agencies believe the reason was something else.
In the context of Manipur -- we will have three stages of contest and issues -- armed insurgency, --
-- Civil society politics and electoral battle.
In all three - the central Govt will have to be cautious about the role that would unfold from the Eastern Flank.
Assam Rifles carried out a critical relief operation in Thambalkhong Leirak, Wangkhei of Imphal East district, June 2025
ends
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