Although the streets of Iran outside were returning to a form of normality after Khamenei’s funeral procession, the deep wave of religiosity and patriotism it unleashed had not abated, only moved on to Najaf in Iraq, where the supreme leader’s coffin was taken to the shrine of Imam Ali.
The atmosphere in Iran could not be more highly charged.
The current escalation could easily lead to an end of the memorandum of understanding (MOU), which was designed to lead to substantial peace talks.
So a foul-tempered Donald Trump picked a particularly sensitive moment at the Nato summit in Turkey to describe Iranians as “garbage”, “cancer”, “devils” and “scum”. He declared further talks with Iran a waste of time.
It is tempting to see the latest military flare-up, including Tuesday’s exchange of fire in the strait of Hormuz, as just the product of an unfortunate juxtaposition. Trump, aggrieved at Europe’s supposed free-riding at Nato, was generally lashing out;
Iran, gripped by grief and religious fervour, was asserting itself as “a brave and resilient nation that harbours no fear of threats or bluster”.
US launches fresh strikes on Iran hours after Trump declared peace deal over
America launched fresh strikes on Iran, with CENTCOM saying the operation aims to weaken Tehran's ability to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz after recent attacks on commercial vessels.
"US Central Command forces have started conducting additional strikes against Iran to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz," US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a post on X.
"The United States is holding Iran accountable for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews freely navigating a vital international waterway," the statement added.
The Bahrain Ministry of Interior said sirens had been activated across several parts of the country and urged citizens and residents to remain calm and move to the nearest safe place.
"The siren has been sounded. Citizens and residents are urged to remain calm and head to the nearest safe place," the ministry said in a post on X. Meanwhile, Kuwait's Defence Ministry said the country's air defence systems were confronting rocket and drone attacks.
WE WILL HIT THEM HARD: TRUMP
The attack comes hours after President Donald Trump warned that Washington will launch more strikes on Wednesday night.
Speaking to reporters at the NATO summit in Turkey before meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump signalled further military action.
"I'll give a little warning: We're going to hit them hard tonight," Trump said.
After leaving a NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, Trump posted several videos on his Truth Social platform that he said showed explosions in Iran and warned Tehran against any further attacks on commercial shipping.
"This is in retribution for yesterday's bombing of ships by Iran. If it happens again, it will get much worse!" Trump wrote.
It seems just as likely that it is not Iran’s diplomats but the military who are now making the decisions, since all the supposed confidence-building measures have fallen flat.
There may be no circuit breaker to end the cycle of Iranian attacks on shipping in the strait of Hormuz, US strikes on the southern Iranian coastline and Iranian counter-attacks on US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait.
Eric Brewer, a former US national security adviser, said Trump may be reaping the consequences of what he sowed. “He accepted a vague agreement that postponed many issues to the future because he was concerned about the economic consequences of continuing the war and doubted further bombing would bring much success,” Brewer said.
Ellie Geranmayeh, Middle East analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the problem is partly about sequencing: “Iran does not want to cede its leverage over the strait before a broader deal is reached on US economic relief.
But for Trump, the reopening of the strait is the heart of the MOU and without it he will be under immense pressure from Republican hawks to resume war with Iran.”
Iranian diplomats know the articles of the MOU by heart, as the agreement was designed by Iran to defer discussion of the nuclear issue until Iran has first received tangible gains, such as sanctions relief.
For them, any attempt to reopen the strait through demining and permissions would be seen as the decommissioning of its chief weapon.
The recent surge of ships through the southern route – and the accompanying fall in oil prices – was alarming and premature. Iran needed to take back control, or risk losing its leverage to secure sanctions relief and a ceasefire in Lebanon.
ends
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