Education and health will be equally decisive. A developed nation is often associated with per capita income levels nearing USD 20,000. India remains well below that threshold. Given its young demographic profile, sustained investment in education and healthcare is not optional—it is foundational.
Without these, productivity gains and long-term competitiveness will remain elusive.
The Modi government is preparing to present yet another Union Budget, and expectations are once again centred on Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s ability to strike a delicate balance. Budget 2026 is not merely an annual financial statement; it is being positioned as a stepping stone toward the long-term vision of Viksit Bharat by 2047.
One of India’s enduring economic weaknesses has been its inability to fully harness the export sector as a growth engine. Comparative data tells a sobering story. China’s share of global exports rose from about 1 per cent in 1973 to over 15 per cent by 2022. South Korea followed a similar export-led trajectory. India, however, moved from 0.5 per cent of global exports in 1973 to only around 1.6 per cent by 2021. This stagnation underscores the structural limits of India’s manufacturing base.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi acknowledged this gap when he launched the Make in India initiative in 2015. Though often criticised, it has produced some positive outcomes in sectors such as electronics and defence. Yet, the larger truth remains unchanged: India’s growth story depends on the parallel expansion of manufacturing, agriculture, exports, and services. Budget 2026 will be judged on how credibly it strengthens all four pillars.
Fiscal management poses another challenge. Private investment has yet to pick up at desired levels, and the government must examine sector-wise constraints that inhibit capital formation. Development ambitions must also coexist with fiscal stability, particularly as Budget 2026 faces clear revenue constraints.
There is also growing debate around centrally sponsored schemes (CSS). While such mechanisms were essential in earlier decades, their effectiveness in the current federal context requires review. Rationalising GST, boosting digital education through fiscal incentives, and scaling skilling via industry-linked micro-credentials are reforms that could yield long-term dividends.
With expectations of consumption revival—including in rural and lower middle-income segments—the coming Budget will reveal whether Viksit Bharat is a slogan or a strategy.
ends
Courtesy -- The Raisina Hills
No comments:
Post a Comment