I am hardly here to suggest that Prime Minister Narendra Modi should not go to Manipur.
In fact, left to me - I believe - he should have gone there earlier. Modi should not have missed election campaign in Mizoram in 2023 as well as during Lok Sabha elections in 2024. But the issues for debate are not guided by personal dislikes or otherwise.
Avoiding election campaign in 2023 and 2024 was considered a strategic safe-play. Mizos share ethnic bonds and even language with Kukis and the BJP leadership did not want anything silly like black-flag demonstration against their superstar poll campaigner.
Reports from Manipur and also Mizoram and Assam now suggest security arrangements are being tightened for PM's visit. Of course there will be extra caution in Manipur given the nature of problems the state has been confronted with since May 2023.
Incidentally, nothing has happened on ground between Kukis and Meiteis to suggest that things have 'improved'. Forget anything like purposeful joint meetings and statements - the two communities are still not in talking terms.
But politics is on.
A powerful section of BJP leaders and 'legislators and former ministers and others' are hyper active to install a popular government in the state. This move itself is a two-pronged strategy -- which will not see the light of the day so soon; but it may cause bigger harm.
The North East of India has complexities and challenges of its own.
Things have been pretty bad in Manipur and the alleged influx of foreign nationals was attributed as one of triggers for the 2023 ethnic clashes. The tendency of tribal communities hitherto secluded in some isolated and excluded pockets to differentiate themselves and seek 'autonomy' both in Myanmar and in India actually comes in confrontation with the supposed to be -- 'integrationist tendencies' at multiple levels.
The ruling BJP and the Central Govt urgently need "allies" in the northeast who appreciate the meaning of such phrases.
Of course the Prime Minister's visit to a violence-hit state is overdue. And as a 'gutsy' PM - he should take things head on.
However, it will be important at the same time to examine whether such a visit (and the timing ... just a few days after his China visit and a few days before his 75th birthday) would bring in positive results.
Supposing he goes to Churachandpur - the hub of Zo (and/or) Kuki people -- there will be hopefully only positive reactions.
The Kuki/Zo community leaders may submit one or multiple memoranda to the Prime Minister demanding creation of a separate 'state' or homeland -- carving out of Manipur. Here lies some problems.
At a press conference in Delhi in May this year, the Kuki Students' Organisation (KSO) leaders batted for 'status quo'. That is post-violence situation.
Meaning they did not favour any launching for an effective dialogues between Kukis and Meiteis.
"The presence of over 5000 sophisticated weapon in the hands of Meitei militants - the VBIGs and the radicalised militia Arambai Tenggol poses a significant threat to the safety and security of the minority and vulnerable tribal Kuki-Zo," it was stated.
On the other hand Meiteis say Thadous are original inhabitants of Manipur in hilly areas but 'others' are nomadic people who came from 'outside' - the geographical boundaries such as Mizoram, Assam, Nagaland and Myanmar. The 2023 conflicts between Kukis and Meiteis have a lot to do with this web of complexities.
The moot point here is New Delhi is sincere and the Union Home Ministry is making things move. Two key officials are working overtime with various leaders from both sides and want to work out a working formula so that both sides can sit across the table. But all that will need sufficient time.
If Prime Minister visits and is able to give a positive messages to both sides - there is nothing like it. Namo will get the credit due for him and we shall be happy about that on this side of the table.
We have used an example in the past too. In life as in cartoons -- there is often a moment when a character having reached a cliff may be still unaware of this obvious fact. His or her fate often hangs suspended and he need not know.
ends
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