Unmasking Real Polity - Time for a new Quad -- J-RIC :::: India needs Tech to exploit Rare Earths :::: Modi's detractors cannot digest that he 'survived' after 10 years and Covid19 ::: They do not see why India will not 'give in' to bullying ::: Russia and China may benefit, but will also bring in gains

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Japan for bilateral talks and Tianjin in China for a regional security (SCO) summit come close on the heels of the US President Donald Trump doubling tariffs on Indian exports to 50%. The American argument being New Delhi’s refusal to stop buying Russian oil. 

If one takes a closer look; India is now at three key countries Russia, China and also Japan to play major role in the global geopolitics. 

Experts say India is believed to hold substantial deposits of rare earths. These are useful in everything -- from smartphones to solar panels. But India will need technology to mine and process them. 

"Namaste, Konnichiwa, Japan," said Prime Minister Narendra Modi as he addressed the India-Japan Joint Economic Forum in Tokyo on Friday, Aug 29th.

This marks his first standalone visit to Japan in seven years. During talks with the Japanese leadership Modi will push to advance India's national interests, strengthen bilateral ties, and build momentum for broader regional and global cooperation. 

Time for a new Quad -- J-RIC -- Japan, Russia, India and China 

New Delhi is persistently exposing the double standards of the American policy makers as China - the largest importer of Russian oil - has not been taxed.  

Indian officials are not against good ties with the US. But the trust about a grand partnership between world's largest democracy and the most powerful democracy has been shattered. 

Thus, New Delhi will look for avenues to “diversify its partnerships”. This is difficult time no doubt and hence some of these things are easier said than done.

India will never give in to the US pressure on oil imports. Forget the Namo doctrine - a great mix of Moditva style of functioning and a vision to be 'independent power in future'. Even the general public anger in India now against America is high.

The central government has fired its first shot to offset the US tariffs, rolling out an export drive across 40 countries from the UK to South Korea to boost its textile trade.

Modi's first counter to Trump's 50% tariff: Govt moots outreach plans in 40 nations to push textile export. 

Notably, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, 

Italy, Japan, Mexico, 

Poland, Russia, Spain, South Korea, Turkiye, the Netherlands, the United Arab Emirates, and the UK are in that list. This shows despite Peter Navarro's ridiculous and childish remarks - Modi's India will not give in. 

The problem for governing India lies elsewhere.

Indian 'intellectuals (guided by self-interests and ego mix) and hence the overwhelming English media and the Congress party's ecosystem and blatantly pro-Muslim and pro-Catholic schools of wisdom do not uphold national interests and pride.

They would rather like to see themselves as anti-Hindutva and anti-India (at times) because that offer provisions to appear as global Seminarists. 

That an Indian PM has turned down four tele calls from the US president in office do not enter their wavelength. That wavelength is blinded by Rahul Gandhi's half-baked tantrums.

The allegations from Congress leaders do not merit debate the manner it has been happening especially he declined to sign the affidavit. Rahul's lawyers are at least smarter guys in the town and are cautious !! 

Only global leader who survived Covid19 

Of course the coming Summit in China will be crucial in more ways than one. The bilaterals with Xi Jinping and probably also with Vladimir Putin could redefine many aspects of emerging global ties.  

Team Modi believes the photos of Indian Prime Minister and the bear hugs (likely) standing alongside Xi and Putin will send a pointed message to Donald Trump.

It is worth taking note that heading to China, Modi travels to Tokyo for the India-Japan annual summit.

Talks with his Japanese counterpart Shigeru Ishiba; in the light of the US tariffs, will seek to deepen relations in defence, Artificial Intelligence, other areas of technology and bi-tech. 

In other words, enhanced investment from  Japan will signal a cushion vis-a-vis the 'blow' of lost US market access.

Japanese companies are set to invest up to ¥10tn ($68bn) in India in the next decade. The Suzuki Motor pledged to pump in about $8bn over the next five  years.

Recently, Modi visited a Suzuki plant for inauguration of a mega project. He said Japan and India were partners “made for each other”.  

Into other areas of debate --  Russia stands to benefit from India’s rift with the US.

New Delhi was sees the Indo-Russia relationship as more 'vital than ever' for balancing ties with the west.

Putin brings in ensured energy security and of course can diversify military hardware purchases rather easily. 

In terms of working out new ties both India and China will be cautious. All of a sudden - everything from the legacy memories cannot be junked.  

Historical mistrust will remain -- and both sides will do well to remember this.

But in circa 2025 things have changed a lot. If Delhi and Beijing can create a measure of stability and predictability -- that will be no small achievement.

Beijing and New Delhi should eye practical gains and try to get over this Washington-inflicted damages.  For Modi; Trump's new tantrumshave brought in immense economic blow.

The US is India’s biggest export market at $86.5bn a year. The data is four times larger than we have from trade with Russia and China put together.

Moreover; two-thirds of Modi's trade with the US -- about $60.2bn in goods – is now subject to the new duties.

Textiles to jewellery -- are labour-intensive sectors and hence Modi's worries have increased manifold.

But it is generally appreciated that even before the tariffs, India and China had been cautiously warming to each other. New Delhi has kept an eye on Beijing since 2017-18 as a source of investment and technology.

"Relations froze after a deadly clash along their disputed Himalayan border in 2020 but began to thaw when Modi and Xi met in person for the first time in four years at a BRICS Summit in Russia in October," says a report in London's 'The Guardian'. 

Now, the US-India crisis has given Modi good cause to accelerate efforts to ease tensions. An effort is under way to see if India and China can reach some sort of new equilibrium.

Both recognise that the world order is in flux. 

ends