"Bhag Mamata, Bhag" - is that the crude message from West Bengal's exit polls ?
Many surveys have hinted at a stiff fight for the Chief Minister in Nandigram.
In 2014 within 20 days of the Modi government coming to power, Arunabha Bagchi, a former Dean at the Netherland's University of Twente, said if Bengalis wanted to play big in India's national politics, one way was to "forget the outdated communist" ideas and the other way was to "help" the BJP become a serious political player in West Bengal.
The last phase of polling is finally over in the state and the 'exit polls' now says irrespective of the fact, the BJP is in the game in West Bengal - onetime the Marxist's citadel and a state where the saffron party was nowhere. Some surveys have said in Jalpaiguri region in North Bengal, out of 27 seats, the BJP is winning all.
Jan Ki Baat gave a landslide win to the BJP saying the saffron party may end up winning 162 to 185 seats. The Trinamool tally may be between 104 and 121 seats.
At the state level, Republic-CNX Exit polls says, the BJP may win 138 to 148 seats -- that's almost half-way-mark in the 294-member assembly.
India Today-Axis Exit Polls showed Trinamool may get 44 percent and the BJP may end up just below that arithmetic number - 43. By this, Mamata's outfit may win between 130-156 seats and the BJP's number of seats could be between 134 and 160. It could not have gone closer.
In some surveys, however, Trinamool Congress has been given an edge but the story of the day is the BJP is in the game.
"We will do much better than what has been projected in the surveys and exit polls as the West Bengal politics is known for violence and voters voting in favour of the BJP will not tell the surveyors fearing backlashes," BJP general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya.
In TimesNow-C Voter survey, close finish could be in 96 seats. According to this survey, Trinamool may sail through winning 158 seats and the BJP - 115. As many as 19 seats could go the Left-Congress-ISF alliance.
Before going further in this blog, we need to understand the journey of the BJP in last few years in the context of its surge in West Bengal.
The Modi Sarkar and the saffron party - guided by PM Narendra Modi and Amit Shah - wanted to become 'masters' of many firsts. The Bengal project was in the pipeline in that context, but that was almost a dream. Even by 2017, the BJP was hardly in the scene in the state.
I distinctly remember asking Amit Shah once did he find the 'Bengali mindset' changing. His response was negative. However, he said efforts would be made by his party - nothing would be spared - and he was confident that the voters would gradually accept the Lotus party and its nationalistic ideology.
However, few months after that interaction, the BJP first captured Tripura and its penetration in West Bengal too went deeper in 2018 panchayat polls. This is precisely when the Trinamool Congress actually started feeling the heat on ground.
As one analyses various pros and cons, it ought to be remembered here that besides the Hindutva card and Modi's pledge of playing a catalyst of development, the BJP strategists always used 'the issue of corruption' as a tool against Mamata's party.
Around January 2015 itself, the BJP had stepped up its attack against Mamata regime on Saradha chit fund scam, and as there were loopholes in Trinamool camp, not to forget BJP leader Siddharth Nath Singh's assertive declaration - "Bhag Mamata, Bhag".
Mamata's lieutenants could not stomach the taunt essentially drawn from a film's name and lawmaker Kalyan Banerjee had questioned, "Who is this Siddharth Nath Singh. I know him to be a grandson of Lal Bahadur Shastri, but who gave him authority to speak about Bengal politics".
This was not confidence; it was arrogance.
That arrogance had its rustic variety in the voice of Mamata Banerjee herself. Once she screamed, "Who is Amit Shah?". Many things have changed since then. BJP started organising rallies and various Trinamool leaders went behind bars. Even soft spoken and articulate floor leader in Lok Sabha, Sudip Bandyopadhyay was arrested and taken to Odisha.
 |
| When the Journey is Long, key Mantra is 'Hard work' |
The days of Mukul Roy defecting or Suvendu Adhikari screaming Jai Shri Ram were far off. But the journey was on nevertheless.
The BJP vote share in West Bengal and also Tripura have been increasing gradually (between 2015-16 and 2018). In March 2018, the BJP dream of capturing power in with substantial Bengali voters, Tripura materialised, and this gave further push to the bigger dream - target West Bengal more aggressively.
Now to come back to BJP's initial years in terms of making ambitious plans for West Bengal, it would be pertinent to state that Bengalis have been traditionally on the wrong side of Indian politics. There have been another element - that irrespective of party affiliations - Bengalis in general agree that 'New Delhi has also conspired' against state Bengal leaders.
Here comes the name of Subhash Chandra Bose, who was forced to resign as Congress president in 1939 with the tacit approval of Mahatma Gandhi. This changed Bengal's political history. The Congress party in Bengal landed in utter disorder and shambles. Bharatiya Jana Sangh was no doubt founded by Shyama Prasad Mookerjee; but the Bengal unit could not grow up since his death.
It may not be wrong to suggest here that the Hindu Mahasabha and later also the Bharatiya Jana Sangh were politically on the wrong side of the Bengali 'bhadralok' sensibilities.
Come back to Moditva phenomenon, it was only in 2014 parliamentary polls that the saffron party's vote share increased considerably. Among all, M Venkaiah Naidu became 'optimist' and in Lok Sabha told noisy Trinamool MPs once, "Bangal mein zameen khisak raha hae". This was a turning point and a new beginning.
No comments:
Post a Comment