Great Expectations From Team Biden: Antony Bilken all set to be new Secretary of State

If the Biden administration will also have 'no tolerance' for terrorism in South Asia, India has a clear advantage vis-a-vis its western neighbour Pakistan and its 'guide and patron' China.

 Great Expectations: 

Not long back Antony Blinken in August had said -- "In a Biden administration, we would be an advocate for India to play a leading role in international institutions that includes India getting a seat in the UNSC". 

“I think you’d see Joe Biden as president investing in ourselves, renewing our democracy, working with our close partners like India, asserting our values and engaging China from a position of strength. India has to be a key partner in that effort,” Blinken, now set to be new Secretary of State, said in response to a question in August this year from former US Ambassador to India Richard Verma.

Biden's probable Secretary of State also had said: “During the Obama administration, we worked very hard to establish India as a key contributing member of the Indo-Pacific strategy. That includes India’s role in working with like minded partners to strengthen and uphold a rules-based order in the Indo Pacific in which no country, including China can threaten its neighbours with impunity. That role needs to extend even beyond the region". 

The task for new US Secretary of State under Joe Biden - probably Antony Blinken - will be to "repair" relationships with some close allies across the globe, many of whom have "bristled" at President Donald Trump's confrontational style and his "America First" campaign.  

Those who welcome the possible move to make Blinken replace Mike Pompeo says the new man would an "effective leader" especially for cleaning up the stables after the worst president and secretary of state we have ever had".

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Former career diplomat James Melville told CNN : "Tony was a terrific deputy secretary. He is brilliant and kind and would be a wonderful and very effective leader of what will have to be one of the most monumental tasks in diplomacy, cleaning up the stables after the worst president and secretary of state we have ever had".  

As the delayed 'transition' exercise has begun, a Biden official said the most urgent need was for the new team to be given access to Covid-19 data and the vaccine distribution plans.

"....the delay in ascertainment meant that Biden's team was locked out from government data and could not make contact with federal agencies, nor could it spend $6.3 million in government funding now available for the transition," said CNN, known for anti Trump tilt over for last four years.

A BBC report said - besides Blinken, Linda Thomas-Greenfield and Jake Sullivan are also set to get high positions. All three are of course "alumni of the Barack Obama White House" and are considered Biden loyalists and foreign policy centrists.

Mr Blinken, 58 - likely to be nation's top most diplomat had worked with Joe Biden for nearly 20 years. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, one of the most high-profile black female US diplomats who worked for years on African affairs, has been nominated to serve as US Ambassador to the United Nations.

Jake Sullivan is a former state department official and Hillary Clinton aide who played a key role in negotiating the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal. He served as Mr Biden's national security adviser when he was vice-president. Sullivan is the leading contender to be national security adviser.

From Indian context, nothing much would change as closer and enhanced Indo-US ties is more than just the flavour of the season. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President elect Joe Biden have already held a formal tele talk.

It goes without saying that there has been "bipartisan consensus" in the White House and US State Department on retaining India as a "strategic partner". 

Of course, things could change if Biden himself makes the first move and tries to embarrass New Delhi on issues such as 'Kashmir' and related human and religious rights issues. Of course, Modi detractors always believed that President Trump had given almost a freehand to the pro-Hindutva BJP-led dispensation.

Nevertheless, we ought to remember that former President Barack Obama, also a democrat like Biden, had greeted Indian Prime Minister at White House with the Gujarati salutation - "Kem Chho". Modi returned the gesture with closer and affectionate address calling Obama by his first name "Barack" - in fact not many international leaders have done so !

Tea session: Jan 26, 2015, New Delhi 

Experts maintain that Biden has always remained a 'strong believer' of the argument that the US and India could be effective natural partners. As such, this school of thought says there is no government in the US that would afford to ignore New Delhi and the Modi-led dispensation. 

 

"From his early days as senator till recently Biden has been espousing India’s cause in the US and lobbying for Indian interests as an admirer of the world's largest democracy," says Brig (Retd) Anil Gupta in 'Organiser'. 

What could happen elsewhere?

Between Modi and Biden, the tele conversation has been warm.

The leaders also discussed their priorities, including containing the Covid-19 pandemic, promoting access to affordable vaccines, tackling climate change, and importantly the enhanced "cooperation" in the Indo-Pacific Region.

Of Course, the 'Indo-Pacific' brings in China element on the table. However, it remains to be seen - what really changes under Biden vis-a-vis the Washington's policy towards Beijing.

Joe Biden would more actively seek areas of cooperation with a rising China, says one school of thought.

Others, however, say Biden would continue President Trump's policy of countering China's "abusive" economic practices but may not tread a solitary path and jointly take allies along.

 

Meanwhile, what happens on Pakistan front too would be of academic interest as US will have a somewhat nuanced and new policy towards Islamabad's trusted friend and 'guide' China!

"The umbilical cord that has kept US and Pakistan connected for the past two decades, for good or bad, is Afghanistan. Afghanistan was close to Biden’s heart when he was vice president. But he had a different approach. By all accounts, he took an active interest in developments in Afghanistan. As Bob Woodward reported in his book, Obama’s Wars, Biden was opposed to the surge. He tried to convince Obama that a major surge would mean “we’re locked into Vietnam.” He wanted a narrow, ‘counterterrorism-plus’ approach: contain the Taliban, neutralise Al Qaeda (AQ) and get the troops home", says a write up in 'Dawn' penned by Ejaz Haider. 

 

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Biden in the run up to the Presidentials elections has said: "We have a common challenge which is to deal with an increasingly assertive China across the board, including its aggression toward India at the Line of Actual Control, but also using its economic might to coerce others and to its advantage, ignoring international rules to advance its own interests....". 

Joe Biden is likely to walk in to 'Paris Climate Accord' - something Trump had come out of. 

Fox News, a known pro-Trump media outlet says: "Here is Paris in nutshell: We put our (US) coal miners out of their jobs and cripple our $1 trillion oil and gas industry while China and India keep polluting and laugh at us (America) behind our back?

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