All eyes on Muivah & Kohima meet: My bet is on CM Rio ! He has a chance to prove himself

All roads in Nagaland and those interested in Naga affairs - within the 16th state of Indian Union - and beyond - lead to Thursday's (Oct 15, 2020) meet at Chief Minister's residence at Kohima.

Nagaland Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio, who holds the record of being in the coveted and challenging office for longest duration, has convened a consultative meeting of all stakeholders to discuss the Naga political issue and the ongoing peace talks between the “Naga national political organisations and the Government of India”. 

Left to me, I would say, my bet is on the Chief Minister - a Northern Angami politician - whom personally I know since 1990s when he was Minister of State under S C Jamir holding the charge of Youth Affairs. The All Nagaland College Students' Union (ANCSU) were agitating those days and had declined to meet the then Education Minister I K Sema. Rio had broken the ice ! 

Jamir grew fond of this young man and as political irony is always - Rio grew up as one of the trusted lieutenants of Jamir and later No. 2 in the cabinet and also subsequently brought the downfall of Jamir. Do some of you get a glimpse of 'Modi-L K Advani' tale?

All eyes are therefore on Kohima meet and all eyes will be on mercurial NSCN (IM) leader Thuingaleng Muivah and his men. Muivah may not attend but his moves will be 'scanned' nationally and 'internationally' ! 

Everyone has an opportunity to prove their mantle tomorrow, their loyalty and commitment. But Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio has a golden opportunity to prove that he is worth the politician he is called.

In 2018, he changed the scenario of state politics within a month or so and made a solid come back to the coveted office. Prior to that Shurhozelie-T R Zeliang duo made his life hell in NPF - where he was Chief Minister and had actually floated it after parting ways from Congress under S C Jamir!

Such a momentous occasion has again come. Thursday - Oct 15 - meeting should not end up as yet another meeting and that it has adopted a resolution or so ! There ought to be concrete decision and Chief Minister should take a lead. History will remember him !

If need be, Rio should be ever keen to make the sacrifice and facilitate a fresh election or interim government! If tomorrow, no direction emerges; everyone else may find the business as usual, but for Rio it would be crucial!

My understanding is the Chief Minister owes it to himself.

Others will be waiting in the wings for Rio to fail, some in Delhi and ivory experts may link the success of Naga peace talks as a 'feather' in their bete noire Narendra Modi's cap ! But major stakeholder is the Naga people collectively and time they get Peace; and Development would follow!

All northeastern states are on board, says Amit Shah's trusted pointman Himanta Biswa Sarma. He would not have said so without proper homework. 

In 2019, Manipur Chief Minister Biren Singh had red flagged further progress.

The NSCN (IM) 'reaction' to the wind of optimism from Himanta and others till October 13 evening was usual and on expected ground - Flag and a separate Constitution. These two being 'non-negotiable' for any Indian prime minister worth his salt.

Constitution also says - any elected Prime Minister - and that includes Narendra Modi also - is only a servant of the Constitution.

In May 2019 during NDA parliamentary meeting, Modi had bowed down in front of the Constitution and thus giving up Flag and Constitution for Nagas may not be a feasible recommendation altogether.

The NSCN(IM) leadership is in the 'matured hands' of Thuingaleng Muivah - a tough negotiator himself and thus he understands Modi's limitation too.

Going back to jungles is easier said than done.

The 14 Tribal Hohos can frame a statement and urge everyone see reason. One refrain or hopeful line from Delhi is -- 'accept whatever Delhi is offering and then pursue future negotiations'.

If anybody thinks China can be a game changer as in the past, it ought to be remembered that lot of things have changed since 1960s when Naga militant leaders had first reached Yunnan province.

As it is, Xi Jinping's hands are full and he himself is for bigger challenges. Taiwan is haunting his regime. Hong Kong challenges are apparently beyond repair.

Pursuing what is seen as an ultra-nationalistic policy towards the minorities and pro-democratic citizens in his country, President Xi Jinping's regime has used strong hands to handle dissidence in Hong Kong, the Buddhist struggle in Tibet, and Uyghur Muslims' clamor for religious freedom in Xinjiang province.

If someone would bank on 'Xi-power', he may get a shock in times to come !

On Oct 14, Chinese envoy in Delhi, Sun Weidong, said "The exchanges and mutual learning between the two civilizations of China and India have a profound accumulation of more than 2,000 years. The common interests of the two countries far outweigh the frictions and differences. I believe that with the joint efforts of both sides, we have the wisdom and ability to overcome difficulties and bring bilateral relations back on track to forge ahead". 

I am not saying, let us believe Chinese ambassador word to word. But there are global geo-political tensions and Beijing can ill afford pursuing a policy it successfully has done in 1970s and later! 

In fact, on the Taiwan National Day, Chinese dispensation must have got some message from Indians in social network.

"We 1.3 billion Indians are always with you, God bless India and God bless Taiwan. Hope one day Taiwan becomes an independent country" - went a message in social network from a commoner netizen.

Well, half the Indians may not understand the logic and diplomatic business in India-Taiwan relations.

Officially, yes Taiwan is an integral part of China and so officially New Delhi maintained the well known ambiguity.

But Indians gave China the taste of its own noodles! 

ends