Deaths and infections continue to surge in South Asia: Has India lost its hyped battle against Covid19

(This article was used in 'The Phoenix Post' published from Port Blair
... thanks
to my Guru - Asheem Poddar !!
 

South Asia is heading towards utter chaos.

With some 3,09,603 cases and about 8,8900 deaths as of Saturday, June 13, India has become the world's fourth most infected country after the United States, Brazil and Russia. In fact, India's tally positive corona cases moved ahead of the United Kingdom and Spain pretty fast in a few days.

India's neighbours are no better today. Deaths and infections continue to surge in South Asia and countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal have eased nationwide lockdowns. Many say Lockdown was the only viable alternative to pause the rise of Covid-19 patients somewhat managed to tame the deadly virus.  There are multiple challenges. One hard reality is economic doldrum.

Union Minister Nitin Gadkari, a former BJP president and someone known for close proximity to the RSS, has painted a very gloomy picture. "The crisis faced by the government of India has also grown. Some of our state governments don't have money to pay salaries next month," he says.

His words came out to be prophetic when doctors in at least government/municipal run hospitals in Delhi said they have not been paid salaries since March and now they have no other option than to tender mass resignation.

Does it need any expertise or rocket science to observe that South Asia's massive population, poverty, weak human resources and poor health systems, absence of sanitation are perfect conditions for a humanitarian disaster? In Mumbai, people protested for days and ran from pillars to posts to get hold of bodies of near and dear ones.

West Bengal - run by a mercurial Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and a PM-aspirant, showed the worse when decomposed human bodies were pushed into garbage vans. The video has gone viral and now the state Governor Jagdeep Dhankar has pulled up the state administration.

"Response from @HomeSecretaryWB has come. Virtual admission about callous handling of dead bodies promising procedure will be streamlined. Rather than booking those responsible for such inhuman criminality, police is being misused to ‘teach a lesson’ to those who exposed it," the Governor tweeted.

At the national level, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had imposed a nationwide lockdown from midnight on March 24 when positive cases were less than 100. More than 70 days later, the economic and social situation compelled him to ease lockdown rules. But cases are spiraling up.

It is true, the central government always faced a Catch-22 situation. The economic situation was grim and if the lockdown continued, things could have turned worse but relaxation also could mean a pandemic explosion.

And that explosion is perhaps happening!

Health workers report a shortage of health infrastructure in cities, including commercial hub
Mumbai and national capital New Delhi.

The national capital region of Delhi had 19 million people and its publicity-hungry Chief Minister
Arvind Kejriwal has said the administration was short of hospital beds. Delhi reported some 31,000 plus cases. Taking cognizance of his complaint the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) has served a notice to the city government and also the federal regime led by PM Modi and asked both entities to file comprehensive reports.

NHRC officials said more than the 'shortage' of hospital beds for Covid19 patients, the issue is more of management issues and absence of a common and effective command structure.

The capital New Delhi also has a significant presence of Central government Hospitals also but it is painful to see that only 12 percent of the Delhi Government, 8 percent of the Central Government institutions and 7 percent of the Private Hospital beds are presently occupied and are being used to treat Covid patients, the NHRC statement said.

Shortage of beds as a major handicap vis-a-vis treating Covid19 patients has been experienced in other metropolis like Mumbai and Chennai also.

In general many observers say more than the shortage of hospital beds, there is apparently an acute shortage of  caring health care staff, absence of testing kits, basic required infrastructures in hospitals and no centralised 'management structure' to fight the crisis.

Thus, has India's courageous and hyped battle against Covid19 already lost ?

Many say things went haywire as lockdown enforcement from March 25 did not seem to have made much of a difference. "In India Lockdown did not stop or fight Covid-19, it rather brought in immense hardships for millions of migrant workers and daily wagers and also hit the economy hard. Lockdown was withdrawn from June and now we have abnormal increase in the number of positive cases...Something went wrong somewhere," says Ahmedabad-based Congress leader Ilyas Qureshi.

Peak may be in July:

In the words of a Bangladesh-based writer Rock Ronald Rozario: "Fears are running extremely high that at the current pace of infection with the number of cases and fatalities doubling every two weeks, the pandemic is headed for a peak by the end of July. By that time, the number of confirmed cases might reach five million and the death toll could surpass 150,000 given that population density in South Asia is among the highest in the world".

It goes without stating that besides the failing healthcare systems, a closer look at the actions of governments in Pakistan and Bangladesh and of course India to deal with Covid-19 only expose sheer ill-preparedness if not
gross incompetence. Shortage of beds during a pandemic in the national capital only displays the chaotic health scenario in
world's 'largest democracy' !

Take the case of West Bengal and the pathetic manner bodies were disposed off - it only shows callousness.

Now, some more questions emanate.

What was the provocation or the hurry and necessity of releasing those bodies from the Morgue at this stage?

Do some people feel closer to the corridors of power in Kolkata and presume they are all protected?
Some heads should roll.

Was there a space crunch related to the high number of Corona positive cases and deaths which are not being
reported in the State’s Health Bulletin just because it does not suit the whims of a mercurial lady?

Or should we say, the worst is yet to come?

Coming back to the South Asian context, it is a matter of serious concern that the World Bank estimates that regional growth in South Asia will fall to a range of between 1.8 and 2.8 percent in 2020.

No doubt, statistics also show this will be the worst economic performance in four decades. 

ends