When march towards the darkness becomes a sprint; well one could be talking about Myanmar.
Since Feb 2021 when Aung San Suu Kyi regime was toppled in a coup; the junta did not have an easy time.
It faced armed resistance across large parts of the country. But it is also true the anti-junta forces — both political and ethnic —may not control as much territory as they claim.
India-Myanmar border : Longwa Village/Nagaland
From New Delhi's point of view - according to strategic experts and retired military officers - Rakhine, Sagaing and Chin areas have their own significance. A few months ago; reports claimed near 95 towns and hamlets in the region are out of control of the junta. But that also means - the military still has control over 200 of them.
Mintha areas have witnessed some serious clashes and violence. Kukis and Zomi Revoluionary group have provided strong resistance and have done some consolidation.
Among other international players, of course the China angle is very special.
Bangladesh and Japan will likely "consider" even a flawed election preferable to no election. Lately Australia also started to believe that engaging whoever holds power in Naypyitaw is better than to stay away.
The military is trying to rebrand themselves as they did in 1997. The State Administration Council (SAC), established after the 2021 coup, has been formally replaced by a new governing body the State Security and Peace Commission (SSPC).
(A view of Myanmar's side of the border from a bridge built over River Tiau. - UCAN News snap)
This is like the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) of late 1990s.
Myanmar is a case that deserves a much closer scrutiny. That the junta there had suppressed people over the decades is a known fact. It is true 'historical responsibility' and contemporary obligation cannot be written off so easily.
Neither a stage-managed polls nor simply changing some names of 'governing bodies' can achieve that.
International laws certainly will hold Myanmar's military accountable.
** India is trying to handle the situation in Myanmar adopting soft approach and generally pragmatic ones.
Mass youth exodus from Myanmar in Feb 2024 almost "justified" Home Minister Amit Shah's 'border fencing'
Border Fencing may not be the best way...but it is a "Pragmatic way"
(In this 2022 photo, protesters hold up pictures of detained Myanmar civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi - snap AFP/social media )
Myanmar’s government in exile is ratcheting-up the pressure on the military to release democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, saying there are “grave concerns” for her health.
The National Unity Government (NUG) said Suu Kyi, who was ousted as state counsellor by the military in early 2021, had been denied appropriate medical attention. “The junta’s deliberate refusal to provide the urgent and effective medical treatment she requires constitutes a politically motivated threat to her life,” the NUG said.
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(On Border fencing by Home Ministry, India)
"Government of India bhi pagla na hoe....(The Government of India cannot be so irrational)," reportedly said a senior Nagaland politician.
The explanation was that - there are some emerging security issues especially in the context of developments in Myanmar after the 2021 coup. There have been substantial number of Myanmarese citizens including junta army personnel who have sneaked into Mizoram and Manipur between 2022 and 2023.
On Friday, Feb 16, 2024, at Yangon, there were over 1000 Myanmarese youths lined up at the Thai embassy for paper works as young people sought to leave Myanmar after the junta said it would impose military service.
Two days before on Wednesday, Feb 14, the junta said that it would recruit 60,000 young men and women for military service under the "Conscription law".
Myanmar's military said it would enforce the law that says men aged 18-35 and women aged 18-27 have to serve for at least two years (under junta) as it struggles to quell opposition to the 2021 coup. The junta is facing widespread armed resistance to its rule after seizing power from the elected civilian government.
It suffered a series of stunning losses to an armed alliance of ethnic minority groups in various parts of the country. In India, the Govt of India has decided to enforce border fencing and the move is being opposed by locals in Mizoram and Nagaland mainly.
A number of indigenous people organisation leaders met in Dimapur on Feb 16 (2024) and resolved to oppose border fencing and the scrapping of FMR.
The organisations wrote a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and said, "The decision to do away with the Free Movement Regime (FMR) and erect border fencing is not only impractical and dehumanizing to the communities living on both sides of the border but, such an approach may only diminish the prospects for peace and well being in the restive region.”
The Union Ministry of Home Affairs in Jan 2024 decided to scrap the Free Movement Regime (FMR) between India and Myanmar to ensure the "internal security of the country and to maintain the demographic structure" of India’s North Eastern States bordering Myanmar.
The letter from indigenous leaders to PM Modi addresses some of the complexities.
The Modi government's mantra has been “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” (one world, one family), on ground, New Delhi is perhaps “dividing families” at the borders using security as the argument to justify the removal of the FMR.
“The security argument that your government has used to justify the removal of FMR stands in contradiction to the diplomatic and strategic outreach with the neighbouring countries and, more importantly, it violates the indigenous rights of the border communities. We strongly oppose the security-centric approach to border management,” it said.
But multiple other issues remain like hanging fire.
There exist border pockets in Mizoram and Manipur that are known for smuggling drugs and Chinese-made goods including cigarettes, besides the movement of armed militants.
Altogether, more than 31,000 people from Myanmar, mostly from the Chin state, have taken refuge in Mizoram following the military coup in the neighboring country in February 2021. The Champhai district adjoining Myanmar witnessed the most.
(This Jan, 2025 photo released by the Arakan Army ethnic minority armed group shows a man standing near a burning house in western Rakhine state)
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Myanmar’s human rights crisis is “plumbing new depths,” the United Nations (UN) High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk told the UN Human Rights Council earlier this week. Civilians throughout the country are “suffering the cruelest toll.” In 2023, he described the country’s crisis as an “unspeakable tragedy,” and added that the junta’s conduct represented “inhumanity in its vilest form.”
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The International Criminal Court in The Hague has issued a global arrest warrant for Min Aung Hlaing, who heads the military.
Min Aung Hlaing’s rise to power is closely linked to Senior General Than Shwe, chairman of the former SLORC and SPDC juntas. Than Shwe, who took power in 1992, stepped down in 2011.
ends
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