The onus of stopping or creating hurdles to the BJP’s growth in Christian-dominated states has fallen on the Rio-led NDPP, the Conrad Sangma-led NPP in Meghalaya and the Mizo National Front led by the veteran Zoramthanga in Mizoram. The state of Mizoram goes to polls later this year.
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| Moditva halted by NDPP, NPP !! |
NEW DELHI : ‘Long Live Regional’ used to be a popular slogan in Nagaland in the 1970s. The incumbent Nagaland Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio had joined politics then as a youth volunteer for the regional United Democratic Front (UDF), becoming the president of the Kohima district of UDF youth wing in 1974.
Mr Rio – Nagaland’s longest serving chief minister – has come a long since then. Referring to this aspect of the past has become all the more important as the mandate 2023 in Nagaland, Meghalaya and Tripura needs closer analyses from a regional perspective.
Crucially, Mandate 2023 in the three north-eastern states has given a clear edge to regional forces in the northeast. While there can be no denying that the BJP will be an important player politically as the party in power in Delhi, it is the regional parties which have actually lived up to people’s aspirations in Meghalaya and Nagaland.
Thus, the onus of stopping or creating hurdles to the BJP’s growth in Christian-dominated states has fallen on the Rio-led NDPP, the Conrad Sangma-led NPP in Meghalaya and the Mizo National Front led by the veteran Zoramthanga in Mizoram. The state of Mizoram goes to polls later this year.
In Tripura, the communists suffered a setback due to a plethora of reasons and here too, the new, tribal-based outfit Tipra Motha, led by Pradyot Bikram Manikya made a big difference. The Tipra Motha won 13 seats. Closer analysis reveals that the presence of this new party harmed the communists and, in the process, paradoxically, helped BJP return to power.
In Meghalaya, the NPP fought to survive the day and actually won as many as 26 seats. Importantly, two other regional parties which are hardly discussed in the national media, the UDP and the Voice of the People Party (VPP), also emerged with flying colours.
The UDP won 11 and VPP – four. They appear to have also decided to back Sangma’s NPP to form the government.
Two other smaller parties, the Hill State People’s Democratic Party and People’s Democratic Front, also picked up two seats each. The vote share by regional forces in Meghalaya — NPP, UDP, VPP, HSPDP and PDF stood at around 58-60 %. This includes the NPP getting the lion’s share of 31.39 %, UDP – 16.21% and HSPDP – 3.56%.
On the other hand, the Trinamool Congress, though a regional party for all practical purposes, and led in Meghalaya by flamboyant former Chief Minister Mukul Sangma, could poll 13.78 % and win only five seats. Sangma
perhaps could have done better as a state-based player himself as TMC got the tag of ‘Bengali party’ in a state where ‘insiders-outsiders’ issues are politically vital.
Of the two national parties, the Congress polled 13.14 % votes and also won 5 seats, while the BJP with below 9 % votes from all 60 seats it contested, could win only two seats, the same as in 2018.
The Mamata Banerjee-headed TMC party failed to open an account in Tripura and the vote share was negligible 0.88%. In many segments out of only 28 it fought, the TMC candidates polled fewer than the NOTA figures.
The important takeaway from Meghalaya, despite lofty ambitions and all-out efforts, with catchy slogans like ‘Modi for Meghalaya’, is that the people did not buy the Moditva line.
“Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other top guns of the BJP, including Home Minister Amit Shah who campaigned extensively in Meghalaya, failed to create any magic….,” said a report in The Shillong Times, Meghalaya’s leading English daily.
On the other hand, in Nagaland, perhaps largely due to high expectations related to the ongoing peace talks, the BJP had a good strike rate, winning 12 seats from the 20 seats it contested. This was BJP’s tally also in 2018.
The remaining 40 seats were contested by the Neiphiu Rio-led NDPP and the party emerged a clear winner with 25 seats. The allies NDPP and BJP have a tally of 37 seats and are thus comfortably placed to form the next government.
Also in Nagaland, however, another regional party NPF — which was in power between 2003 and 2018 – ended up winning just two seats. It must be noted that Rio is also from the NPF stable. He quit NPF and helped float NDPP in December 2017 just two months before the 2018 electoral battle. In Nagaland, the NPP led by Conrad Sangma, won five seats.
The public perception and their mandate are thus important. The onus is now on the BJP and parties such as NDPP and NPP in Nagaland and Meghalaya to deliver. The message of 2023 polls thus is that the BJP and the regional parties NDPP, NPP, Tipra Motha and MNF will need to work together,” said Dilip Sharma, Executive Editor of Dimapur-based daily ‘Nagaland Page’.
In Tripura, the BJP’s vote share came down from 43.59% to 39%, but the number of seats fell only by four, to 32. For the CPI-M, the vote share nosedived from 42.22% to around 24.62%. It is clear that the newly floated tribal-based Tipra Motha gained at the expense of the Left and BJP’s pre-poll ally, Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT).
This party had won 9 seats last time but it came down to a meagre one this time. Tipra Motha, on its first attempt, won 13 seats with 22% vote share.
Overall, the BJP appears delighted with the mandate. The lotus party’s victory roll, that started in Uttar Pradesh and Manipur in March 2022, continues. Last year Modi-Shah duo delivered six state assembly victories except Himachal Pradesh. The BJP’s major electoral plank has been to promote ‘pro-incumbency’.
The BJP will, doubtless, be unhappy with its performance in Meghalaya. The Congress, like 2018, could not open an account in Nagaland and, in Tripura, it just won three seats, benefiting from the Left-Congress alliance.
The Congress votes did not transfer but the alliance will be an indicator that Congress can benefit from pre-poll alliances while, at times, others can oblige it too.
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