Ashol Poriborton
Twenty-three year old Nikhil Karmakar summed up the entire situation well. "I might be confused on who should be the next Chief Minister of West Bengal. But my mind is clear, it should not be Mamata Banerjee or her nephew Abhishek."
His compatriot, Nabendu Pal, a resident from Barasat, makes it more specific. "I am sure the next Chief Minister will be from the BJP as my state and its helpless citizens are awaiting for a genuine poriborton (change)".
Thousands of youngsters, women and senior citizens who came BJP rallies in Kolata and Kharagpur and roadshows in Nandigram and elsewhere shared the same enthusiasm.
In fact, the Prime Minister also spoke about the same -- "ashol poriborton". Modi's speech at Brigade rally and also elsewhere had key elements and political substance.
"West Bengal had reposed faith in Mamata Banerjee to bring in change but she betrayed the people and insulted them. This Brigade Ground has been witness to many great leaders and also witnessed those who have disrupted West Bengal's progress," he said directing his tirade against both Trinamool and the Left-Congress-ISF alliance.
The BJP's allegations of 'tola-baazi (extortion)' and massive corruption of the 'syndicate' against Mamata's powerful nephew stuck. Abhishek Banerjee is about to dubbed in the history as Mamata's 'Sanjay Gandhi' - something 'politically sensitive' Bengalis would never approve of.
In the meantime, says Siliguri-based Ramakanto Shanyal, "Mamata's machinations with her advisors like Derek O' Brien and nephew (Abhishek) only helped BJP's cause. She marginalised senior colleagues like Partha Chatterjee, Sisir Adhikari and Sudip Bandyopadhyay presuming their style of functioning had cost her many seats
in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Now as younger lots gained importance, Mamata also pushed her Muslim appeasement card harder".
There were gradual impacts of these factors. The BJP gained legitimacy among Bengali-Bhadrolok as
they decided to oust the so called 'secular or Muslim appeasement' cloak.
In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP did well in north Bengal and some select pockets like Durgapur and Asansol.
Union Minister Babul Supriyo returned to Lok Sabha twice from Asansol - 2014 and 2019 while S S Ahluwalia, shifted from
Darjeeling, could win Bardhaman-Durgapur defeating Mamata's close aide Mamtaz Sanghamita.
"Now, South Bengal seats and districts of 24 North and South Parganas and segments along
Bangladesh borders Malda and South Dinajpur would also back BJP," says teacher Jhantu Dey in
Asansol.
He cites the illustration of desertion of leaders like Dinesh Trivedi as a clear case of Mamata sidelining
her 'well wishers and lieutenants' of many years.
Didi with Guv
Hence, a day after Modi's rally in Kolkata, Trinamool Congress was hit with a major exodus. So much is growing disenchantment against Trinamool on ground that despite being given a ticket from Habibpur, Sarala Murmu, joined the Lotus party in the presence of Dilip Ghosh, Suvendu Adhikari and Mukul Roy.
"What can be worse than their (Trinamool) own members and dedicated leaders feeling humiliated and eventually leaving the party? Now Trinamool is getting celebrities to fill in the position," said BJP state president Dilip Ghosh.
Out of 30 seats where polls are held today, TMC will not win single seat, says Suvendu
Taking on West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee in a high-stake political contest at Nandigram, BJP nominee Suvendu Adhikari displayed confidence throughout the day. In contrast it was a day of utter frustration and blame game by Mamata Banerjee even as unfortunately, the polling day at ground zero Nandigram and adjoining areas witnessed violence and poll-related clashes.
"Aaj key tirish taar madhya ekta o jeetbe na (Out of 30 assembly seats where polls are held today, Trinamool will not win a single seat,)," Suvendu said.
"The whole country is today looking at Nandigram to see if development or politics of appeasement will win here," he said and lashed out at Trinamool Congress leadership and party workers for raising 'Joy Bangla' slogan saying - "this is originally a slogan from Bangladesh".
Some BJP leaders in the past have maintained that Joy Bangla slogan is essentially drawn from a pan-Islamic clamour and has little meaning in India.
"I have a personal relationship with every person in Nandigram. I am pretty confident to win the election," he said.
Suvendu Adhikari also said, the Trinamool camp is unnerved by the pro-Hinditva factor in this year's polls. "Jai shri ram ka dar," he said.
In Uluberia where Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed an election rally, several BJP supporters were seen clad in t-shorts with slogan 'Eto Raag Keno Didi (Why you are so angry and disturbed Didi)'.
During campaigning in the run up to the polls, Mr Modi has on several occasions spoken in Bangla and had remarked: "Eto raag keno Didi".
In contrast, the Trinamool camp displayed frustration on the polling day on Thursday, April 1.
An upset Mamata Banerjee has threatened to move court also on poll violence and related issues at Nandigram.
Firstly, she cancelled her north Bengal election campaign trip and decided to stay put at Nandigram itself. Things did not help much.
In the afternoon, after receiving information about troubles at the Boyal Maqtab primary school booth number 7, a known Trinamool stronghold, she rushed to the spot in her wheelchair ride.
Mamata was there for over one hour.
Mamata spoke to the poll officers and also the booth agents and others.
From the booth itself, a visibly rattled looking Mamata Banerjee spoke to Governor Jagdeep Dhankar and also dashed off a letter to the Election Commission.
Later talking to reporters, she said, "....I am sorry for the Election Commission for their silence".
Addressing election rallies in Jayagar and Uluberia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi exuded confidence that people of Bengal "will definitely punish her for all her faults in governance and betraying their trust".
The Prime Minister said, "For the BJP, the state of West Bengal will emerge as a ground for development and not Khela".
There will be enhanced investment now in the state, he said.
Bengal polls: Didi's Drama, Defection, and BJP prospects
Defection is certainly being regarded as the chief component in the elections of 2021 in West Bengal. Most of that have generally gone in favour of the BJP. These have also shown the obvious that Trinamool Congress has been losing ground underneath the feet.
Trinamool supremo Mamata Banerjee is face red-faced and the nervousness in her is palpable. Her decision to contest from Nandigram has actually boomeranged. Thus local BJP leader Jyotirmoy Mahato says, "As they are nervous about losing even in Nandigram, Mamata Banerjee has resorted totheatrics that she was attacked. This has insulted Nandigram people more".
The reference is to Mamata's 'fractured leg' and the image of a 'victim' that the beleaguered Chief Minister is trying to play up eyeing sympathy from the voters. The Election Commission has concluded that the incident in Nandigram was only an accident and not an attack.
The poll panel also said “The chief minister flouted the prescribed security norms/protocols, which could have led to tragic consequences". Obviously, the episode has given BJP leaders a handle to use in the election season. "Bhagwan jaane sach kya hae....," remarked Home Minister Amit Shah during a campaign on the contradictions between what EC says and what Mamata herself had claimed. The Chief Minister had used the word 'saaazish' but Trinamool leaders are at a loss when they are asked to explain how could the miscreants flee the spot untouched by scores of policemen and security guard.
"This happens in an election when you know you would be rejected. Mamata has realised that her grip is over and it is time to bid farewell to power. No theatrics would work," says Debotosh Rakshit in Tollyganj area in Kolkata - where BJP had fielded Union Minister Babul Supriyo.
He explains the dichotomy in Mamata's poll strategies well. "Mamata wanted to flee Bhawanipore, so she played up Nandigram card. Here too she realised that Suvendu Adhikari is too strong a candidate. Therefore, on the day she announced party candidates, Trinamool chief gave a hint that she could contest from Tollyganj as well. This was a slip of the tongue. But she stands exposed," he says.
BJP's electoral plans in Bengal has many facets. Defection was certainly one of them as desertion by her own ministers and senior colleagues - one after the other - have generally sent out a message that gradually Trinamool was turning a 'weakened force'.
In a big way 'defection' started in November 2017 when Mukul Roy, Mamata's second in command, jumped the ship. A big message went that the saffron party's doors would be thrown open. And more recently, the real X-factor in Bengal politics has been the defection of Suvendu Adhikari. The former lieutenant of Mamata has now made things miserable for Trinamool supremo herself. BJP’s growth graph in West Bengal came in two phases - 2014 and 2019. In 2014, during the first round of Modi wave, BJP increases its vote share at the cost of the Left. In 2019, importantly the BJP could wrest some Trinamool space also.
Now in 2021, the BJP aims to win a sizable section of 'Hindu voters' of Trinamool leaders. And hence here comes the importance of X-factor leaders such as Suvendu Adhikari or even Rajib Banerjee and some of the noted film stars.
The region wise analysis of BJP’s electoral performance shows the saffron party had done well in North Bengal, in Junglemahal and some hilly pockets. Notably, the Trinamool Congress retained hold in south Bengal and seats in and around Kolkata. Therefore, the BJP strategists say winning political space in south Bengal and crucial hubs in Hooghly, Howrah and Kolkata regions would increase BJP's prospects to storm to power.
The BJP has thus fielded former Forest Minister in Mamata cabinet, Rajib Banerjee from his constituency of Domjur in Howrah district. Several key Trinamool leaders from Howrah region like Vaishali Dalmiya (former Trinamool) also have joined BJP. There were others too. Fourteen Trinamool legislators including three ministers have migrated to the BJP. On March 8 Saralu Murmu, a former Trinamool leader, joined the BJP even after she was given a ticket by Mamata Banerjee.
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| Blogger: Sketch by a Mumbai friend |
Five sitting MLAs and majority members of Malda Zilla Parishad defected to the BJP camp. "What can be worse than their (Trinamool) own members and dedicated leaders feeling humiliated now Trinamool is getting celebrities to fill in the position," said BJP state president Dilip Ghosh. Among those Trinamool Congress lost also include four-time MLAs Sonali Guha and also a former football player Dipendu Biswas, Jatu Lahiri (from Shivpur) and Sital Kumar Sardar.
In Asansol region Jitendra Tiwari, two-time party MLA and a former Mayor, also has joined BJP. Saumitra Khan, who had won the Bishnupur Lok Sabha seat in 2014 on Trinamool ticket later retained the seat for the BJP in 2019.
Defection of Shankar Ghosh, a former CPI-M leader, from Siliguri is also a crucial development. Ghosh could get a BJP ticket from either Siliguri or Dabgram-Fulbari constituency.
Takeaways from 2019 Lok Sabha polls:
Assembly segment wise break up of 2019 general elections showed – BJP could have won
121 assembly seats – a modest 26 short of magic figure of 147 to form government in 294-member assembly.
In contrast, Mamata’s outfit had done well in 164 seats.
BJP managed 67 assembly seats 'good show' in hills, Junglemahal and north Bengal.
- From among 167 south Bengal seats, the BJP could do well only in 48 seats and its performance was satisfactory only in six central Bengal seats. Thus, BJP's move to get new faces and film stars makes sense.
## A closer look at what happens on ground where these defections took place.
Nandigram is of course in public debate virtually at the national level. Besides issues like joblessness, migration of locals and general deterioration in law and order situation, according to Union minister of State Debasree Chaudhuri, there is addition to a major election issue in Nandigram.
"People of Nandigram are hurt by the slanderous campaign by Trinamool Congress that Mamata was attacked in the constituency. People's anguish will be reflected on May 2, the counting day", she says.
Before she was injured in the incident which the Election Commission said was 'not an assault', Mamata had made herself busy running from one temple to the other. “Ami o Hindu gharer meye (I was also born into a Hindu family),” said Mamata.
Obviously, BJP has only mocked these. "Politics of Mamata Banerjee has run its course, she realises it,” BJP IT cell chief Amit Malviya said.
Barrackpore region:
Shifting of allegiance to the BJP camp from Trinamool Congress has been at multiple levels in Barrackpore. The parliamentary constituency has seven assembly segments -- Amdanga, Bijpur, Naihati, Bhatpara, Jagatdal, Noapara and Barrackpore.
This constituency with about 15 lakh voters has witnessed defection of two most prominent Trinamool faces – Arjun Singh and Dinesh Trivedi. In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Arjun Singh had snatched the seat from Trivedi by a margin of about 14000. Things look good for the Lotus party in most of the assembly segments. Between Singh and Dinesh Trivedi – both the candidates had shared about 82 percent of votes in 2019. Mamata’s candidate in the Barrackpore assembly segment is film director Raj Chakraborty. He has already opposition from local Trinamool leaders.
# Sonarpur Daskhin under South 24 Parganas is set for a star-studded contest with BJP fielding Anjana Basu against another actress Lovely Moitra of Trinamool Congress.
# Shyampur assembly (under Howrah): BJP has fielded actress Tanusree Chakraborty. She will take on Trinamool’s Kalpada Mondal, who has been winning the seat four times consecutively – 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016.
# Tollyganj: In Bengali cinema hub Tollyganj, the BJP has decided to bank on Babul Supriyo. Babul won Asansol twice defeating actress Moon Moon Sen in 2019. He will be pitted against Trinamool heavyweight Aroop Biswas.
There is another reason for BJP fielding playback singer-turned-neta Babul from Tollyganj as there have been reports that Trinamool supremo is considering contesting also from the Tollyganj seat in south Kolkata.
# Jadavpur assembly: Kolkata’s traditional Marxist seat in south Kolkata is all set for a keen contest.
BJP has fielded Rinku Naskar, a former Marxist leader herself. The sitting MLA is CPI-M leader Sujan Chakraborty. Jadavpur has been a CPI-M seat since 1967. However, in 2011, former Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya lost the seat to Trinamool nominee Manish Gupta.
The CPI-M managed to win back the seat five years later in 2016. But BJP fielding Rinku Naskar has made the battle exciting in 2021. She was CPI-M candidate for Lok Sabha poll from Mathurapur in 2014 and had polled 489,325 votes.
##
Diamond Harbour: The BJP could spring a major dent in this key assembly segment which falls under Abhishekh Banerjee's parliamentary constituency. Mamata's nephew is the 'famous' Bhaipo (nephew), the political detractors have targeted so much in the run up to this year's polls.
Two-time MLA Dipak Halder joined the BJP and is now the party candidate. If anywhere the allegation of corruption and 'tola baazi' would come into play is Diamond Harbour, says a local BJP worker Pranab Roy.
## Tarakeswar: BJP has fielded columnist and Rajya Sabha MP, Swapan Dasgupta. The Trinamool Congress too has changed its two time MLA, Rachpal Singh, a Sikh and a former police officer. Singh is also Minister for Planning in the Mamata Banerjee government. Ramendu Singha Roy will now represent Mamata's party in this segment.
ends
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