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Kerala polls: Advantage Vijayan, but how true ?
‘Personalization’ of political cult is rare in Kerala except of course Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. But in some segments, 'personalities' do matter. One such poll protagonist is actor Mukesh, a sitting CPI-M legislator who is seeking re-election from Kollam. As expected, he is locked in a triangular contest against Congress nominee Bindhu Krishna and M. Sunil of BJP. Falling under Kollam parliamentary seat, the constituency has a significance of its own. But 'film star' factor is no pushover. Congress and BJP campaigners are already making an issue of Mukesh's 'absence' in the assembly. Some even call him 'guest artist'.
Many say the voting trend is this constituency could influence voters in other constituencies.
Chadayamangalam of course is a traditional CPI stronghold. In two previous elections 2011 and 2016, CPI nominee Mullakkara Ratnakaran has won this seat. Minority voters are important in these segments. In Chadayamangalam, both in 2016 and 2011, the Congress had fielded Muslim candidates.
And this year too, the much respected Kollam Diocese of the Latin Church has charged the LDF regime with harming the interest of local fishing community by its decision to allow global trawlers in the deep sea. Bindhu Krishna is district Congress chief and her hold among fishing community especially women has apparently given her some advantage.
Notably, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and also 2014 for Kollam Parliamentary constituency, the LDF constituent RSP was ahead in the Kollam Assembly segment. The seat is being represented in Lok Sabha by vocal RSP member, N K Premachandran. In some of these seats, the Left candidates also hope that the BJP would do well and increase their vote share - thus eating into the share of Congress support base. But more often wishes cannot be horses! This is not only a Scottish proverb, it has political truth in democracies.
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The CPI-M and pro-Left liberals have sought to give a spin and present Chief Minister Vijayan as an able administrator. The intent is to dismiss the corruption scam charges and also that at times he went against Hindu sentiment in the name of keeping minorities happy and 'safe guarding' Court orders. Chief Minister's initial stance on the Sabarimala temple row was one such twist.
However, his party feels that he can do a miracle and return to power. Although his Sabarimala stance and corruption have antagonised a huge number of voters, his camp believes the so called handling of the economic fallout of Covid19 and distribution of kits of essential grocery items would sail him through.
Why Congress needs a win?
For Rahul Gandhi, the April 6 battle in Kerala is crucial as the party's failure to come to power in Kerala would mean his shifting of constituency - after he was handed over defeat in Amethi - to Wayanad did not help the prospects of his party.
The Congress party has multiple problems. "....There is too much groupism in my party. Sometime more powerful than the party itself," said former Union Minister K V Thomas.There would be actually a huge impact if Congress vote share comes down substantially.
In 2016 just five years back, I had interviewed Mr Thomas, a gentleman to the core and who knows politics pretty well on ground!
"People of Kerala have begun to realise that changing governments every five years has often harmed development. People are realizing that in a state like Kerala there is a need for continuity in governance," Thomas had said.
Does he continue to hold the same view in 2021, is anybody's guess !!
Changing Govts every five years hurt Kerala
According to experts, return of the Marxists-led LDF in 2021 and the substantial decline of the Congress would open bigger avenues for the growth of the BJP. Hence, the pressure is equally telling on the communists.
"Returning to power is a must for the Left Front to regain its influence at the national level," said a document published by Kerala unit of the CPI-M. The desperation is serious as the communists have altogether lost their relevance in West Bengal. They are still a major opposition power but intensely marginalised in Tripura. Beyond these three states, the Marxists and their ilk have not been much influential other than striking political deals with power brokers, casteist players and 'corrupt' elements.
I had visited Tripura during the year-end and most Left supporters - some die hard ones - were vehemently arguing in favour of Mamata Banerjee provided the BJP and Narendra Modi are kept at bay. Desperation and frustration often go together.
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| Photo: English Manorama |
EC snubs Mamata for giving a 'media narrative' on 'Nandigram' poll complaints
New Delhi: Trinamool Congress supremo and West Bengal Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee,got a major snub on Sunday after the Election Commission rejected all her 'hand written' chargesof poll-related issues at Nandigram on the polling day on April 1.
".....the allegations mentioned in your hand-written note are factually incorrect, without any empirical evidence whatsoever and devoid of substance," said a letter from Umesh Sinha, Secretary General of ElectionCommission. The poll panel said, "In fact, it is a matter of deep regret that a media narrative was sought to be weaved hour after hour to misguide the biggest stakeholders which is the voters by a candidate who also happens to be honourable Chief Minister of the state".
It further said, "At least, this should have been appreciated that the sideshow was fraught with immense potential to have adverse impact on law and order across West Bengal and may be some other states. And all this was being done when the election process was/is on".
West Bengal has already witnessed two phases of polls and waiting for next six rounds.
The Commission also said since the declaration of elections to four states including West Bengal and UT of Puducherry, both Mamata and her party have been constantly raising issues including on EVM tampering and those have been already responded by the poll panel.
The EC missive comes in response to Mamata's 'hand written' complaint on April 1 (polling day at Nandigram) thather polling agents could not discharge their duties on the crucial day.In fact, as many as 27 polling agents of Mamata's party did the 'vanishing act' on April 1at Nandigram where Trinamool Congress supremo herself was locked in perhaps the worst election of her life.
Trying to draw a political mileage, Mamata Banerjee had statioed herself at a polling booth for about two hours -which political rivals have already said 'violation' of the code of conduct during elections.
The Chief Minster had also dialled Governor Jagdeep Dhankar and sought his intervention.
BJP spokesman Gaurav Bhatia said Mamata's conduct was a fit case to be 'condemned' that an incumbent Chief Minister has tried to showing disrespect to the Election Commission of India.
Trinamool is indulging in "dirty politics" and it only that their party chief is "nervous".
Another BJP leader, Sunil Deodhar tweeted: "Mamata Didi, your lies have been called out by the Election Commission of India. Just because you sense your imminent defeat in Nandigram & Bengal, you think you can get away by blaming Central forces & ECI? What next, blaming the people of Bengal too?"
BJP West Bengal unit chief Dilip Ghosh said, "Trinamool has admitted its electoral defeat both across the stateand in Nandigram. Elections from Trinamool side is now only a matter of formality".
Exuding confidence of BJP win, Prime Minister Narendra Modi told an election rally at Tarekehswar in Hooghlydistrict on Saturday: "If the BJP comes to power in Bengal, I shall come for the oath taking ceremony and ask the Chief Minister to give approval to the PM Kisan Samman Nidhi at the first cabinet meeting".
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