A tryst with destiny cannot be postponed !!
Everything may be all right between the BJP and Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (U); but Chirag Paswan's latest move could in the ultimate deny yet another term to Nitish as Chief Minister of Bihar !
New LJP chief - Junior Paswan's move - to field candidates against Kumar's JD(U) but leave it uncontested against the BJP perhaps signals a move that indirectly will help the saffron party!
In its crucial meeting on Oct 4, Sunday, LJP's central parliamentary board decided to make life difficult for Nitish Kumar, who came to power in November 2005 after years of struggle against onetime 'irreplaceable' Lalu Prasad Yadav.
LJP's slogan for the fast approaching polls is also interesting. It runs - “Modi tujhse bair nahi, Nitish teri khair nahi (Modi we have no issues with you; but Nitish Kumar, your follies and lapses will not be forgiven)" .
A question in political circles both in Patna and in Delhi - Is Chirag doing it all on his own, or it is with tacit understanding with BJP ?
Moreover, from the point of view of central politics, Paswans (senior man, Ram Vilas Paswan is undergoing treatment); still would like to do business with BJP and the post of Union Minister is still a good offering the LJP does not want to give up as of yet.
Of course, senior Paswan is considered an expert in reading political weather better than most pandits and whenever he has deserted a regime --- the formation has not come back to power. In 2004, he had quit the Vajpayee government over Gujarat riots and that year saw return of Congress-led UPA. In 2014, Paswan joined NDA despite Narendra Modi and everyone knows the way Manmohan Singh-regime was handed over a convincing defeat. And if he sticks with a party or regime, the win is a must, an inevitable !
This was proved in 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
As of now, the Team Chirag is more than optimistic. It says, no candidates will be fielded against the BJP and "all the candidates" who win will form a BJP-LJP government! So that means if the plan works, it is 'exit time' for Nitish - who is braving 15 years of anti-incumbency - something even Laloo could not manage to survive.
And there has been flood fury and Covid19 adverse fallout too!
BJP has tasted success in many states including states like Tripura where it has its own Chief Minister today; but the saffron party is yet to have a Chief Minister of its own in Bihar. In 2015, despite the Modi factor and Amit Shah's personal handling; the BJP was handed over a shocking defeat by powerful caste combo offered by JD(U)-RJD-Congress combine! So, BJP remains ambitious to have a Chief Minister in Patna - where BJP has had a long and distinguished political career.
As of now, LJP is contesting 142-143 seats and if it manages to win 35-40 and BJP can manage 80-90 seats, a BJP-LJP government is not ruled out leaving JD(U) high and dry or could be forced to extend support.
The Scheduled Castes constitute about 16 per cent of the Bihar's population; and Ram Vilas Paswan has been a well known Dalit face. But Nitish has handled caste equations in a masterly manner more than once. In 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the Maha Dalit card proved so fatal that Paswan himself had lost from his pocket borrow Hajipur. Again in 2015 assembly polls, Nitish simply joined hands with RJD boss Lalu and it was a Tsunami that almost showed Modi's his place under the sun.
JD(U) could be smelling troubles today and also doubting the 'doublespeak' of the BJP that 'we have nothing to say' in the conflict between LJP and JD(U). Thus, Rajiv Ranjan, spokesperson of the Janata Dal (U) says as long as the BJP-JD(U) alliance is intact, "we don't have any confusion about getting a thumping majority".
Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi have bitter past behind and thus it may be one of the ways to settle old score in a rather ingenious style.
In politics, being 'vindictive' is often an art and Modi-Shah duo could be well aware of this. So would be Nitish Kumar too !
Various permutation combinations are being examined and re-examined by various stakeholders.
On Oct 3, Amit Shah himself met BJP national president J P Nadda, and party’s two senior pointmen for Bihar polls - Devendra Fadnavis and Bhupender Yadav. That meeting was certainly crucial.
With Lalu Yadav himself not in electoral reckoning, for RJD-Congress combine the onus of the entire battlefield is on youngster Tejashwi Yadav. He is too young and more importantly does not have enough 'resources' to organise an electoral contest against titans like Nitish Kumar himself and of course a mammoth and formidable political force called the BJP.
But Bihar is a laboratory for caste games and many pundits have got it on their nose in the past. Is good old 'MY' - Muslim and Yadav voters still intact, no body is certain and will they desert RJD just because Lalu is not around. What about sympathy factor for his son ? Yadavs should rather push for a strong sweep in favour of Tejashwi.
Corona and floods have made Bihar's poll tempo much subdued this year. But this could only add to the complicity. Moreover such an assessment can be folly and from an elitist view or prism in Delhi.
On ground, people may known their minds quite clearly!
Is Sushant Singh Rajput really an election issue when people have suffered joblessness, economic recession and of course 'migrant workers' woes ?
Moreover, the Hathras rape issue has snowballed into a major row at the last moment and this can be a pain in the neck for the BJP. So what happens to Dalit votes ?
Five years back, after Bihar poll results came in, it was easy to pass verdict literally.
"The year 2015 was some kind of a political nightmare for Narendra Modi – the politician. Probably for the first time since 2001 – when he was made Gujarat Chief Minister – never had Modi tasted such difficult situations and sadly for him, he could not give the befitting reply to his detractors – something he had made a sort of habit post-2002".
This is what I had remarked in a blog piece in December 2015.
Will the writing change this year ? Can it?
Ends 
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