Elections are round the corner in three eastern Indian states - Bihar, West Bengal and Assam -- and all three share borders with neighbouring countries.
Assam and West Bengal have Bangladesh alongside while Bihar has Nepal.
There have been unprecedented political turmoil in last two years in the region. Myanmar is another country that is vital to north east India.
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Bihar goes to the polls in November and poll dates will be announced soon. Two key eastern states West Bengal and Assam will have elections done by April-May 2026 along with two southern states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The BJP has deep stakes in Mamata Banerjee-ruled West Bengal and also in Assam -- where it came to power in 2016.
By early 2027 - elections will be held in Uttar Pradesh - that sends 80 MPs to Lok Sabha and also border states such as Manipur and Punjab and also Goa.
In August 2024, Sheikh Hasina was ousted and those who came to power by default were radical Islamists. India and other key players in South Asia should have sensed some of these fault lines.
Eight years prior to that the 'Dhaka siege' on July 1-2, 2016, was one of the deadliest attacks in Bangladesh.
The Islamists had warned Bangladesh it was now part of a bigger battlefield to establish a cross-border “caliphate". Things should have been taken more seriously by Sheikh Hasina and also in Delhi.
Analysts did see these as "serious developments", suspecting a large section of Muslims in Bangladesh to pledge support to “the Khilāfah". These should ot have been overlooked like the manner both Dhaka under Hasina and New Delhi under Narendra Modi handled the situations.
During my visit to Dhaka in December 2017, one young student at the Mujib Memorial in Dhanmondi had said: “In Bangladesh, we still have two kinds of fanatics and two kinds of intellectuals. One side is always with India and the other side is always with Pakistan.”
Mujib Memorial - now destroyed in Dhaka
But a clear India-Pakistan angle to what a Bangladeshi does and says certainly implied grave security threats for Bangladesh and India's northeastern states.
Needless to add, porous borders and the complex sociopolitical background of Tripura, Assam and West Bengal make them vulnerable for such Islamic activities.
No marks for guessing - all these elements with be at play during forthcoming assembly elections in Bihar, West Bengal and Assam.
All three states have different and distinctly peculiar political equations. In Bihar and Assam - Modi's BJP ought to return to power while in West Bengal, the saffron party and even the RSS want to unseat Mamata Banerjee.
Incumbent West Bengal CM and Trinamool chief is sarcastically called "aapa" (Urdu word for Didi). This is for her blatant Muslim appeasement politics and governance. There is already a parody against her
"O Pishi tui chole ja... Bangladeshe choleja".
There were reports in West Bengal of terror elements ostensibly supported by Islamic State having drawn out plans to attack Indian temple priests.
Indian agencies have been warning since 2010 that Bangladesh-based groups like Ahle Hadith Andolon, Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh and Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) are turning their neighborhood into a “seedbed and activity center” for their global activities.
The interim regime in Dhaka has simply failed. It has failed in more ways than one.
The Sheikh Hasina government might have had good intentions. But she paid a price for both factors - corruption under her, few political mistakes and for being close to the Modi-led dispensation in Delhi.
The overall security apparatus in Dhaka has been pathetically incompetent to grasp and control the situation. The attack on Durga puja pandals since 2021 was a pointer.
No doubt; after the 2016 Dhaka siege, the then PM Sheikh Hasina had raised the question,
“Yeh kemon Musalman?”, meaning "What kind of Muslim kills innocents during the holy month of Ramadan?"
However, in Kolkata and in Delhi, a section of Indians might say the agony and ecstasy associated with the birth of Bangladesh in 1971 still hold the message that religion cannot bind a nation together for long.
But more important question is -- what kinds of adverse fallout such a nation can leave on its neighbours !!
ends
I must appreciate the intelligence agencies for identifying in time the spark of I *love Muhammad*, which started in bareilly. Thankfully it was doused in time before it turned into an inferno. The our neighbours Bangladesh and Nepal suffered leading to regime change. Probably the same forces were at work to destabilize India. For this very reason the upcoming elections in the states that have international borders with India's neighbours should be critically watched for any such activities, which could spiral into something big beyond control. Both Bangladesh and Nepal failed miserably. In India's neighbourhood such civil unrest began first in Sri Lanka and is spreading fast. Unfortunately of all the states, which are to go for time-bound elections, except Assam , the current dispensations are unpredictable, rebellious and unworthy to say the least. PM Modi should keep security forces on high alert to tackle anything untoward that we clearly saw in West Bengal despite the ruling party returned to power. The mayhem was totally planned, but Mamata didi shed no tears as cadre of her party itself went on a rampage.
ReplyDeleteIt would be there were many instances during the five years to impose president's rule Modi showed restraint, bl no idea why if he gave free hand to the Army to take on terrorist training camps in Pakistan after the dastardly Pahalgam killings.forces must be given similar orders to raze Bengal ruffians. Then again border forces must be given *license to shoot* at sight every infiltrator that crosses through the porous border between India and Bangladesh. This should be a lesson for all the parties, who see their votes in those coming from Bangladesh. -- K K Patil, Maharashtra
A slogan came -- I love Muhammad. They might be fringe ..but hidden ... minglednwith fabric of society. Had an intent. They were hard to spot.. much harder to catch. Conspirators worked with a plan. -- Rakess Kumar, Bhopal
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