India may be doing its own calculations. But New Delhi's hands might be full.
But it goes without stating that things are pretty serious in the eastern front.
We may still have to wait for a few weeks or months for real Bad news for Anti-India Muhammad Yunus.
Notably, Bangladesh Army Chief reached out to Russia -- India's friend.
Bangladesh Army Chief General Waqar Uz Zaman visited Russia on April 7 where he reportedly met Russian Deputy Defense Minister General Fomin and Army Chief General Oleg Salyukov.
Between Yunus and Gen Zaman what's the real game ?
The former is a stooge of America but the military man maybe closer to China. His softness towards India or opppsing the Humanitarian corridor is basically tactical.
After former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted on August 5, 2024, Bangladesh has been at the centre of power struggle between the interim government of Bangladesh led by Muhammad Yunus and the Bangladesh Army under Army Chief General Waqar Uz Zaman.
Certainly when Bangladesh Army Chief General Waqar Uz Zaman visited Russia, it caught eyeballs across the world and it also forced people to raise eyebrows.
Waqar Uz Zaman visited Russia on April 7 where he reportedly met Russian Deputy Defense Minister General Fomin, Army Chief General Oleg Salyukov, as well as representatives of defense firms Rostec, Rosoboronexport and Rosatom.
Media reports noted that the discussions could have been around possibilities of cooperation in the defense sector.
However, experts have been quoted as saying by many reports that the visit of the Bangladesh Army Chief might have been placed to indicate that the Bangladesh Army is ready to lead Bangladesh.
He could be keen to replace the interim government of Bangladesh led by Muhammad Yunus. But he does not want to go for the kill without good preparations.
He also does not want to be seen as strictly an anti American protagonist.
There is an inherent difference in the nature of the interim government of Bangladesh led by Muhammad Yunus and the Bangladesh Army.
But Zaman is not strictly an anti-fundamentalist.
Speculation is rife that Bangladesh Army led by Army Chief General Waqar Uz Zaman may be planning a coup against the Yunus.
But he may need international backing. Will Moscow oblige him?
China is not altogether against the idea and India would not mind ouster of Yunus. So, RIC bloc may prefer Waqar as of now. This is pretty good bargain.
But New Delhi will have to do more.
Yunus is behaving undiplomatic and cheap.
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It was unbecoming on the part of Yunus to tell the world on what transpired between him and Narendra Modi.
This displays bad diplomacy and also his desperation. He simply wants to continue in office. The perks are too tempting and also that he has to please his masters.
What is the new emerging situation ?
"The Rakhine Corridor is quietly turning into one of the most consequential geopolitical flashpoints in our region right now.
It’s being pitched as a humanitarian lifeline to northern Rakhine, which is now largely under the control of the Arakan Army. But behind the smokescreen of aid, what’s really at stake is strategic access and a looming great power contest between the US and China, with Bangladesh caught squarely in the middle," says Lt Gen Abhay Krishna (Retd).
Of course, the Americans are pushing for the corridor under humanitarian pretexts.
A keen observer of strategic things having served as Army Commander of three regions Eastern Command, South Western Command and Central Command, General Krishna says:
"Obviously the US is securing influence and possibly even a semi-permanent presence near the Bay of Bengal. Muhammad Yunus, heading the interim civilian government in Bangladesh, has signalled openness to the corridor under Western pressure, but this has put him at odds with the Bangladesh Army, particularly General Waqar-uz-Zaman".
The typical interesting part of Gen Krishna's analysis is that:
"Gen Zaman sees through it. He’s drawing parallels with what happened to Pakistan in the 1980s when, under the guise of fighting the Soviets, the country became a staging ground for foreign interests. The result was long-term instability, foreign interference and blowback that reshaped Pakistan’s politics forever."
We may understand that way Gen Zaman is showing "maturity" and he doesn’t want Bangladesh to be the "next lab rat".
Zaman says he is opposed to the "bloody corridor" and he has started calling for elections by December 2025.
This disturbs the power equilibrium signalling Bangladesh army's discomfort with the current interim civilian arrangement. This may obviously bring us to legitimate queries - how should India react and how is China reacting.
Lt Gen Abhay Krishna (retd) sums up the paradox quite well.
"On the Rakhine corridor issue, New Delhi may actually find itself in silent alignment with Beijing. This is a case of diplomatic billiards. Supporting Waqar Zaman’s resistance to the corridor, even informally, helps India in more ways than one," he says.
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