“If you only read the books that everyone else is reading, you can only think what everyone else is thinking.”
- Haruki Murakami, Japanese writer
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When India and Bangladesh - sitting separately - make assessment of bilateral ties; the obvious references are around or about greater convergence, the spirit of mutuality of interests and the keenness to advance interdependence.
Pragmatism, geo-political acumen power and economy - not necessarily in that order - always work in any diplomatic parleys. The body language of the leaders during Summit deliberations and during foreign ministers' meets can indicate perhaps whether the negotiations have been relatively smooth. New Delhi and Dhaka are going through exciting as well as challenging times.
There are multiple manners of pressure on both the leaderships.
Amid these, there are issues of Political & Social Space. In India, the BJP has the political space and influence including in key border states of West Bengal, Assam, Tripura, Mizoram and Meghalaya. In contrast, the BNP in Bangladesh is on a sticky wicket. The 2024 protests by anti-Sheikh Hasina forces were in effect typically anti-India forces.
Hence the new PM Tarique Rahman still has the burden of the legacy. The fact of the matter is the Hasina-led Awami League had some space; similarly, Rahman's ruling party BNP had some space.
Post Awami League ouster in August 2024; there is a substantial political vacuum.
Needless to add; the BNP has surely eaten into some of the space of the Awami League. This has left hundreds of AL supporters and party workers unnerved.
If the BNP really inches closer to New Delhi -- leaving Awami League high and dry; things would be difficult for Sheikh Hasina's party to continue to trust the Indian leadership.
The Modi Govt is aware of these intricacies.
Hence it is trying a different role - a new mixed policy. Thus, we have merits in the Prime Minister Narendra Modi's decision to depute a Gujarati politician with a cabinet rank status - Dinesh Trivedi - as the new high commissioner in Dhaka. A career diplomat may not have such a flexibility.
Like others in the game; New Delhi is also aware that post-Feb 2026 elections in Bangladesh; the two die-hard anti-India political forces, the Jaamat and the newly floated NCP have "developed some space".
For PM Modi, appointment of a Bengali-speaking Gujarati neta as new high commissioner signifies priority to his Govt's ‘Neighbourhood First’ foreign policy.
"For Prime Minister Modi to give cabinet rank to the High Commissioner to Bangladesh indicates a high level of importance attached to this policy. He would like to make sure that the government of Bangladesh, led by Tarique Rahman, would also recognise the signal and respond likewise in terms of giving the highest importance to policy towards India," says an article in 'Indian Express'.
In the contexts of all these; the BNP has to do effective planning so that it can "marginalise" the two political friends - the NCP and the Jaamat. This is easier said than done.
BNP must be planning, that they need to marginalise Jamaat and NCP.
What they should do ?
# Counter Narratives
- Display themselves as a Strong Government.
- Keep India at Bay and Swing towards China
## They can alsi Target fund network - USA, UK & Middle East based Expats.
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