Why not Punjab next ???? How to stop BJP's "unstoppable and almost invincible" onward journey into India's political landscape :::::: TMC's exit comes after debacle suffered by Shiv Sena and NCP

 A lot depends on the capacity of the opposition parties to reinvent themselves. 

The Congress was always vulnerable. Rahul Gandhi's leadership was lacklustre. 

However, what is notable is that the BJP's victory in West Bengal now puts every regional parties on notice. TMC's exit from power comes after the large scale debacle suffered by Shiv Sena and the NCP in Maharashtra. 

Even after BJP's unprecedented success in 2014, not many could have imagined that the major states of eastern and northeastern India -- West Bengal,  Bihar, Odisha and  Assam -- would all be under the BJP. 

If Mamata Banerjee could be defeated in a state such as West Bengal with sizable Muslim voters and the TMC had an advantage of 70 seats in its kitty already; no regional party will be safe on their home turf. 

In Punjab, the BJP leader Sunil Jakhar and others have started posing a question, why not Punjab next. 

The AAP is in power in the state and so far the Lotus party is not a formidable force while the Akali Dal and Congress remain two key players. 

Next big head on collision is in Uttar Pradesh by March 2027 and here the Lotus party's principal opposition in Samajwadi Party.

But experts are already suggesting that no state is structurally safe from BJP's powerful electoral machine. The Samajwadi Party had a good show in 2024 Lok Sabha polls. 

It won more seats (43 ) -- seven more than BJP from the state. In previous occasions - 2014 and 2019; the BJP had won 71 and 63 seats respectively.  

In West Bengal this year; from Muslim votes' perspective - three districts of Murshidabad, Malda and North Dinajpur made all the difference in the final outcome.

Altogether, there are 43 Assembly seats in these three districts. 

In 2021, the BJP could pick up eight seats and the TMC won 35. But in 2026; the split in Muslim votes helped other parties including Congress and CPI-M as well.

The BJP won 18 of the 43 seats. Trinamool could win 20 seats.

The Congress, the newly floated AJUP and the CPI-M shared remaining five with the Marxists winning one.  

The double standards of the so called opposition unity also is a major challenge. The Congress and TMC fought bitterly during polls in Bengal. And in Tamil Nadu after elections; the grand old party dumped DMK for a not so sure journey for power.  

"West Bengal has been breached," BJP spokesperson Shazia Ilmi said.

"The verdict demonstrates that the BJP's core formula — religious identity combined with welfare delivery, nationalism, and a disciplined grassroots organization — can travel further than previously assumed," said Ilmi.

She pointed out that governing a border state also allows the BJP to align state administration with central security priorities along one of India's most sensitive corridors linking the northeastern states to the rest of the country.

Winning a state with a substantial religious minority population — chiefly Muslims,  account for over a quarter of West Bengal's 100-million-plus population — also points to a significant consolidation of Hindu voters across caste and class lines.  

On the mandate in West Bengal, Dr Rajdeep Roy, Assam BJP leader told this blogger: 

"We are not over stating it. The fact of the matter is the Partition of India happened due to Muslim appeasement policies of the Congress. 

But more importantly, since 1905 when Bengal under British regime was partitioned; it is for the first time that the Hindus have shown so much of unity in this eastern region. This mandate will have a tectonic impact both in India's domestic politics and also in geo political sense".

   

Muslim factors:

Analyst Tarapod Guha in Durgapur says, "The split in Muslim votes and the landslide win of the BJP have made things murkier. We have a nightmarish experience as West Bengal has emerged as the fourth Indian state after Jammu and Kashmir, Assam and Uttar Pradesh; where the perceived veto power of Muslims have vanished".

In Uttar Pradesh and Assam, the BJP has been returning to power repeatedly because the split in Muslim electorate continues. In fact, in Assam (close to Bengal); the BJP scored a hat-trick winning as many as 82 seats in the 126-member assembly.

The polarisation of Indian voters between the Congress and the BJP also stands exposed in Assam. 

The Congress of Rahul Gandhi won 19 seats in Assam and to the surprise of

many 18 of them are Muslims.

Mamata Banerjee was immensely popular amongst Muslims. But the election outcome does not reflect that.

There is another facet. The freebies and welfare measures have their shelf lives. Mamata has exhausted that in West Bengal. 

Perhaps, PM Modi also faced this peculiarity in 2024 because the voters had already rewarded him for those including cooking gas cylinders and toilets for the poor in the 2019 parliamentary polls.

   

Awami League slogan in Bengal polls: 'Jai Bangla' slogan borrowed from Awami League in Bangladesh also backfired for Mamata. 

The Bengal mandate is certainly a display of Hindu resurgence. But it was also 

a vote against violence perpetrated against Hindus in neigbouring Bangladesh especially after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina.

Now, the BJP will have to deliver. Hence to attract investment, it may have to apply the so-called Gujarat Model.

But things could be messier than what was Uttar Pradesh in 2017 or what was another development-starved state of Bihar in 2005.

The election results in West Bengal are also a vindication of the Modi Govt's policy of development but they are punctuated well with the right dosage of Hindutva ideology.

The aspirational Bengali youth wanted a change, they longed for a change for a better life. Now, they will want jobs.

ends