(UCAN report)
India is once again in election mode even as daily Covid-19 cases rise at an unprecedented pace. Five crucial states including the most populous and communally charged Uttar Pradesh and the Sikh-dominated Punjab, both in the north, are going to the polls in February.
The Election Commission of India has also announced poll schedules for Uttarakhand in the Himalayan foothills, known for its Hindu pilgrimage sites, besides Goa in the west and Manipur in the northeast, both having substantial Christian populations.
The stakes will be high for India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Uttar Pradesh, where the Hindu monk-turned-politician Yogi Adityanath is the chief minister.
The state is also home to the upcoming Ram temple at Ayodhya — a political issue that has helped propel pro-Hindu forces to the center stage of Indian politics — and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s parliamentary constituency of Varanasi.
“The road to power in Delhi is usually via Uttar Pradesh,” is an oft-repeated line of Modi’s trusted lieutenant and federal Home Minister Amit Shah, who also doubles up as the chief electoral strategist for the pro-Hindu BJP.
Modi’s past successes in parliamentary polls in 2014 and 2019 are largely attributed to his party’s success in Uttar Pradesh. The province sends the largest contingent of 80 members of the Lok Sabha, the elected lower house of the Indian parliament.
The state is run in a ruthless manner by the saffron-clothed Adityanath after being virtually given a free hand by the Modi-Shah duo after the last provincial elections in 2017.
Born Ajay Singh Bisht in 1972, the 50-year-old chief minister is fast emerging as the new face of the BJP after Modi, who is past 70 years now. His unapologetic, Hindu chauvinistic rhetoric is a crowd puller in states as far off as Karnataka in the south and Tripura in the northeast.
The Yogi’s main competitor is Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party (Party of Socialists) who was the chief minister between 2012 and 2017. The party enjoys a groundswell of support among the state’s influential peasant-pastoral Yadav caste fellows and Muslims, who have a substantial presence in pockets.
This electoral advantage, though, is accompanied by a rider — smaller castes are generally opposed to Yadav domination and tend to unite against the Muslims.
The Congress party, which dominated Uttar Pradesh politics in the initial decades after independence, has lost much ground to the BJP and regional parties over the years.
It is now solely banking on the waning charisma of the Gandhi dynasty in the form of Priyanka Gandhi, daughter of Congress president Sonia Gandhi and sister of Rahul Gandhi, who lost the family’s long-held parliamentary constituency of Amethi in the state in 2019.
“It’s all good to have a charismatic campaigner and leader in Priyanka Gandhi-Vadra. But the Congress party’s biggest handicap is its organizational weakness. In the past seven years, nothing was done to improve it,” says Tushar Bhadra, a Modi supporter from Varanasi.
There are also concerns that minority Muslim votes may get split between the Samajwadi Party and Congress, as with the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), a political party based in the southern city of Hyderabad representing the rights and interests of India’s Muslims.
Opponents of the AIMIM allege it is propped up by the BJP to split the minority Muslim votes.
The BJP could be hoping for a split in the minority Sikh votes in Punjab as well with a four-cornered contest in the offing between itself, the Congress, Akali Dal (a provincial party of Sikhs) and the Delhi-based Aam Aadmi Party. The BJP will be banking on its newfound partner, the Punjab Lok Congress, floated by the former chief minister and disgruntled Congressman Captain Amarinder Singh, who fell out with the Gandhis after a change of leadership in the state.
The retired army officer who hails from a princely family had a long stint as a Congress leader, including as the state chief minister, until he was replaced by a Dalit, Charanjit Singh Channi, recently.
Punjab is a sensitive state as it shares a border with Pakistan and was witness to the Sikh separatist Khalistani movement in the eighties
The BJP’s anti-Pakistan nationalist rhetoric notwithstanding, it has had to play second fiddle to its former ally Akali Dal in the state.
This year’s run-up has got further complicated with India’s ruling party claiming a security breach in Punjab as the prime minister’s cavalcade was held up on a flyover for 20 minutes while on the way to the border town of Ferozepur on Jan. 5.
The BJP triggered a major political row by aggressively highlighting how the Congress government in Punjab had compromised the PM’s security.
“As the issue is related to the security of the prime minister of India and that too in a state which has a history of Sikh terrorism, the entire narrative could change by the time elections are held,” opined political analyst Vidyarthi Kumar.
The Supreme Court of India took cognizance of the matter even as the federal and provincial governments initiated separate probes pushing their own versions of the contentious incident.
India has in the past lost two prime ministers to terrorism. Indira Gandhi fell to bullets fired by Sikh bodyguards while her son Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated by a Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) suicide squad.
Hence, the raking up of a political controversy ahead of the Punjab elections is not without good reason.
The Sikh farmers of Punjab successfully opposed and compelled the repeal of Modi’s pet farm laws to reform India’s agricultural sector last November.
It was the presence of a group of Sikh farmers that reportedly held up Modi’s cavalcade, though their leaders said they were simply protesting and never intended to harm the prime minister.
The outcome of the elections in the five states will be crucial in predicting Modi’s fate in the national elections slated to be held in 2024.
The results in Uttar Pradesh will seal the fate of BJP’s top leaders, Modi in Delhi and Yogi Adityanath in his state. “How much that will change the larger Hindutva politics will be a matter of concern and academic interest,” according to Bhadra.
 |
| Congress campaign !! |
India's tryst with polls amid communal war-cry and 'security breach' to Modi
New Delhi
India has again entered into an election season. Polls will be held next month in five states including politically crucial Uttar Pradesh - country's most populous state - and communally hyper sensitive Punjab - where Sikh-Hindu relationship has apparently come under strains.
The Election Commission of India has announced poll schedules also for Hindu pilgrim state of Uttarakhand in the north and Goa and Manipur - the two states with substantial Christian populations.
Stakes will be high for more reasons than one in Uttar Pradesh - where Hindu monk-turned-politician Yogi Adityanath is the Chief Minister. This state also houses Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Varanasi parliamentary segment. Hence the hold in this state will be a big time indicator of things to take shape in India's politics.
"The road to power in Delhi is usually via Uttar Pradesh," is oft-repeated line of Modi's trusted lieutenant Amit Shah, the federal Home Minister and the saffron party's chief electoral strategist.
In 2014 and 2019, Modi's win in parliamentary polls is largely attributed to his party's success in
Uttar Pradesh. The province sends as many as 80 seats to India's Lower House of Parliament, Lok Sabha.
Over the last seven years and half, India has already turned an unapologetically pro-Hindu nation
even as the Prime Minister keeps parroting a Hindi phrase 'sabka saath (meaning inclusive growth)'.
In Uttar Pradesh, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath was virtually created by the Modi-Shah duo in 2017 and was
given a freehand in running the administration in a ruthless manner most often.
The saffron-clad Adityanath, born Ajay Singh Bisht in 1972, is 50-years-old, 22-years younger than Modi.
But he has emerged as the 'new face' of the BJP and even in provinces like far-off Tripura or Karnataka there
have been demands for his election rallies. His chauvinistic rhetoric is certainly a crowd puller and hence
all eyes are UP for multiple reasons.
The chief competitor to Modi's BJP in Uttar Pradesh is Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, who was Chief
Minister between 2012 and 2017. Son of socialist leader Mulayam Singh Yadav, another former UP Chief Minister
and former Defence Minister of India, Akhilesh Yadav draws his electoral strength from Muslims and influential
Yadav caste.
But this 'advantage' is accompanied with riders as most other smaller castes are generally opposed to Yadav domination
and have in the past flirted with Congress, Bahujan Samaj Party of a Dalit former CM Mayawati and the BJP.
The Congress is banking a lot on the personal charisma of Priyanka Gandhi, daughter of Italy born Sonia Gandhi, the
powerful party president. "It sounds all good to have a charismatic campaigner and leader in Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.
But the Congress party's biggest handicap is organsational weakness and in the last seven years nothing was to
improve the same," says Tushar Bhadra in PM Modi's constituency Varanasi.
Others are also concerned that the minority - Muslim - votes would be split between Congress, Akhilesh Yadav's
party and Asaduddin Owaisi led AIMIM, a party catering to Muslims' interest from Hyderabad in down south.
Samajwadi leaders say AIMIM has been actually propped up by the BJP to split Muslim support base which
would in the ultimate help the political ambitions of Yogi and PM Modi.
In neighbouring Punjab, the stage is set for a four-cornered contest between the Congress, Akali Dal (a provincial
party of Sikhs), Aam Aadmi Party (from Delhi which is banking on its twin cards of welfarism and freebies)
and BJP and its new found partner Punjab Lok Congress.
The new party was floated by Capt Amarinder Singh, a retired army officer from a princely family and who
has had a long stint as a Congress leader. Singh fell out with Rahul Gandho-Priyanka duo when they reposed
faith in a former cricket star Navjot Singh Sidhu.
Being a border state with Pakistan and a predominant one with Sikhs, the issues in Punjab often get reflected
in terms of Khalistani movement that once struggled for secession from India. It gets complicated with Congress
state unit chief Sidhu repeatedly addressing Pakistan's cricket icon turned Prime Minister Imran Khan as 'yaar (a bosom
friend).
The BJP's pro-Hindutva jagron has always pushed a harsher anti-Pakistan line and the strategy also paid in
dividends.
This year's Punjab polls has got further complicated with a recent 'security breach' during Prime Minister Modi's
visit to the border town of Ferozepur on Jan 5. The episode has triggered huge political rows and blame games.
"As the issue related to security of Prime Minister of India and that too in a state which has a history of Sikh terrorism,
entire narrative could change by the time elections are held," says analyst Vidyarthi Kumar.
The Supreme Court of India has taken cognizance of the matter and hearing will commence on Monday (Jan 10).
The local Superintendent of Police in Ferozepur and the state Director General of Police have been transferred.
Two probes - one each by the Punjab government and the other by the federal Home Ministry under the
supervision of Amit Shah have also begun.
Things need not end with these and more heads could roll.
Terrorism and security of Indian Prime Ministers have co-relation from the 1980s when Indira Gandhi, Sonia's
mother in law, was assassinated by Sikh bodyguards in 1984. The gory episode had fueled indiscriminate
killings of Sikhs openly in Delhi roads and in various parts of India.
In later years in 1991, Sonia's husband and Rahul Gandhi's father, former PM Rajiv Gandhi was killed by LTTE terrorists
in the southern state of Tamil Nadu during an election rally.
Hence the big political controversy is not without good reason.
The year-long farmers' agitation that ended on November 19 after repeal of three 'reform-oriented'
farm laws was also led by a sizable number of Sikh agriculturists.
In a statement, farmers' leaders Joginder Singh Ugrahan and Sukhdev Singh Kalan said the farmers
in Punjab never intended to harm the Prime Minister personally. They were simply protesting.
On Jan 5, PM's high security cavalcade was halted for about 20 minutes on a flyover due to protest
by the farmers.
Elections will be important in Goa and Manipur also where despite substantial Christian populations,
both the states are BJP-ruled.
Stakes are also high because post these elections in five states, India will enter into another crucial subject of
politicking - the Presidential elections.
The outcome of these polls in four BJP-ruled states and Congress-ruled Punjab and Presidential elections
in July will be too crucial to decide PM Modi's fate in 2024.
Also lined up for this year's battle of the ballot (through EVMs) is elections in Modi's native state of Gujarat
in December.
In terms of outcome in Uttar Pradesh, a section of observers feel if Yogi Adityanath is able to consolidate his hold,
he could even threaten the leadership and monopolistic style of functioning of the Prime Minister.
"How much that will change the larger Hindutva politics is another matter of concern and academic interest,"
says Bhadra in the temple city of Varanasi.
Although a hard-liner, Adityanath was never a member of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the
radical engine room in Nagpur that runs the BJP politics across India and the agenda for Hindu nationhood.
ends
No comments:
Post a Comment