Bengal election results amid Covid crisis challenge Modi's political future
The results of elections in five Indian states were declared on May 2 as the country reeled under the trauma of increasing Covid-19 cases.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) suffered considerable damage in the polls that challenges his and his party’s political future.
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In a normal situation, the election results of five small states should not be seen as a mandate on Modi and his party, which heads a government of 1.4 billion people in a federation of 29 states.
But these are extraordinary times. As pandemic cases were spiraling, Modi’s focus on governance could have probably offered a different story on deaths and people's sufferings.
However, Modi and especially his Home Minister Amit Shah had prioritized elections. As he holds virtually all the power in the party and the government, and personally campaigned in elections, observers would not be wrong to say the sizable population spread over five states has voted against him and his party.
The BJP could not win even a single seat in Kerala’s 140-seat legislative house. In fact, it could not retain one it held in the last assembly. It lost the lone seat it laboriously won five years ago.
In Tamil Nadu state, the BJP and allies lost to the rival alliance led by the local DMK party, which included Congress and communists. The DMK-Congress alliance won 159 seats in a 234-member legislature, leaving only 75 seats to the BJP alliance.
It was a different story in Assam and Puducherry. The BJP retained power in Assam by winning 75 of the 126 seats in the house. In Puducherry, a BJP alliance won 16 of the 30 seats.
Is he responsible for pushing Modi so far in Bengal ?
But the major setback was in sensitive West Bengal state, where Modi and the party’s top leaders campaigned hard but were humbled. The local Trinamool Congress Party won 214 of the 292 seats in the legislative house. The BJP could win only 76 seats.
The alleged gross failures of Modi’s administrative management of the second wave of Covid were reflected in the West Bengal mandate. The BJP could win only 24 of the 114 seats that went to the polls in the last three phases, when the pandemic had turned traumatic.
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With thousands of Modi critics campaigning for his resignation, and the BJP’s electoral debacle adding fuel to their demands, the pro-Hindu party is indeed at a crossroads in its history.
"The BJP has met its match and lost,” says Congress lawmaker Shashi Tharoor, praising the success of Mamata Banerjee, the leader of Trinamool (Grassroots) Congress, a party based in West Bengal.
Ironically, India's principal opposition Congress party lost badly in Tharoor's own state of Kerala and in Assam in northeast India.
Do these elections signal the further marginalization of Congress, which lost two elections to Modi in 2014 and 2019?
In terms of national politics, if the Indian opposition wants to fight Modi, it is high time Congress leader Rahul Gandhi gives up his space and brings in Mamata Banerjee as the leader of the 'united opposition' to take on the prime minister in 2024.
Others may not reject the idea outright. Shiv Sena, a regional party from western state Maharashtra, has called the Trinamool win "a victory of Bengal's tigress."
West Bengal state, bordering Bangladesh, is known for its typical Bengal tigers in the jungles of the green forested Sundarbans.
Other regional politicians such as Sharad Pawar and Akhilesh Yadav — two former chief ministers in the large states of Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh — also hailed Banerjee’s win.
"My Bengal has saved India today," Banerjee, the popular spinster politician, said after the results came in.
From the BJP's perspective, its seats in the West Bengal legislature increased from three in 2016 to 76 this time. In any other electoral story, this is huge. But the BJP had hyped its entire campaign, claiming it would win 200-plus seats and bring down Banerjee. Here lay the folly.
This aggrandizement — a characteristic of Modi's politics — epitomized the sloppiness and errors in electoral strategy.
The BJP underestimated the influence of Banerjee in the state and ignored the Muslims who are known for voting against Modi’s party.
In Bengal, she has a history of fighting the communists for two decades and ousting them successfully in 2011 to become the state’s chief minister.
She is incidentally India's only female chief minister. But paradoxically yet again, she lost the latest polls she contested from rural Bengal’s Nandigram constituency.
She still can become chief minister if her party chooses her, but she has to win a seat in a by-poll within six months. BJP leaders are now trying to use this against her.
"The media analysis is wrong about the Bengal mandate. The BJP's numerical strength has increased and Banerjee herself lost the election. This is actually an occasion of the BJP's moral victory and a story of moral defeat for Banerjee,” says BJP leader Himanta Biswa Sarma.
During the second wave of the pandemic, Modi's credibility as an administrator has already come under question
Setbacks in state elections for Modi and the BJP have come in the past as well.
In 2015, the BJP lost two crucial elections in Bihar and Delhi. In 2020, within months of a landslide win in parliamentary elections, the BJP lost yet again in Delhi. In 2018, the BJP lost state polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maoist-infested Chhattisgarh.
Nevertheless, these defeats did not dampen Modi's electoral politics at national level and perhaps even his popularity.
But this time around, the Covid situation has changed the reality on the ground. During the second wave of the pandemic, Modi's credibility as an administrator has already come under question.
Banerjee will probably have a chance to take on Modi at national level if other opposition leaders including Gandhi give up their ego and accept her leadership.
Importantly, Banerjee’s image as an administrator is essentially defined by the culture of welfarism with no consideration of the economy and an allegedly blatant pro-Muslim stance.
If she is to make a deeper penetration into national politics, she ought to be more sensitive to pro-Hindu sentiments.
Banerjee is well aware of this image and visited a popular temple in Kolkata to thank Goddess Kali for the election victory.
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| A legacy of Status Quo |
Nandigram shows 'Bengal tigress' her place - 'a clear defeat'
Nandigram signaled 'revoution' in West Bengal, now the onus on the BJP to carry forward 'ashol revolution'
Has West Bengal lost "ashol Democracy" ?
"After this crushing defeat (in Nandigram) what moral authority will Mamata Banerjee have to retain her Chief Ministership? Her defeat is a taint on TMC’s victory," says Amit Malviya of the BJP.
The BJP's tally increased by over 2000 per cent from 3 to 77. An incumbent Chief Minister lost herself, yet the perception is pushed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has lost. BJP's target was humongous, this epitomises the irony in the story of Bengal politics.
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West Bengal unit chief Dilip Ghosh is right when he says, "People want Mamata Banerjee back in office as the Chief Minister and has asked us to be in the opposition and do the job of an effective opposition.We will do it".
Nandigram is certainly a big story in the 2021 electoral battle.
"This is BIG. Mamata Banerjee, the sitting Chief Minister, loses Nandigram," tweetedBJP leader Amit Malviya on a day the saffron party enhanced its tally in West Bengal but could not achieve its goalof wresting power.
Spin doctors have tried to interpret the verdict in this prestigious constituency in different manners. But the fact of the matter is that an incumbent Chief Minister had been humbled in a constituency she picked up by her own choice.
"It is a sad day for the people of Nandigram and other parts of the state. While we voted her out rejectingher brand of politics of corruption and 'Tola baaji' (extortion), in the rest of Bengal people fell victims toher gimmicks of campaigning around with a football on a wheelchair," remarked one Delhi resident who hails from East Midnapore region under which falls Nandigram.
Others also seem to agree. "This was neither a victory for Trinamool nor defeat for BJP. It was a victory of conspiracy. It was a defeat of 'ashol democracy'. People genuinely wanted a change but failed to handle the Trinamool tricks. Bengal has gone backwards by ten years. But Nandigram voters showed the courage and decisiveness," said educationist Anurima Ghosh in Kolkata.
This Bengal mandate was a case of lost opportunity. People helplessly endorsed political violence and acceptedtola-baazi and Goondaism. Freebies worked like it helped Arvind Kejriwal. Not only Bengalis and the state of Bengal, the outcome of such a mandate will be felt across India. Do not forget we have a porous border with Bangladesh.
Far against from making a master stroke to contest from Nandigram, once Suvendu Adhikari was fielded by the BJP, she knew things would not be smooth.
A nervous Didi took a new avtaar, on a wheelchair. Did that image make all the difference in this year's elections?
If anyone has to trust BJP leader Kailash Vijayvargiya, this did a lot. The BJP leader's diagnosis is that she played a 'victimcard' and raked up emotive issues. The goal post changed. Emotions came up. Governance was forgotten.
During the campaign both in Nandigram and elsewhere, clad in her trademark crumpled white sari with green stripes,Mamata thrust herself on a wheelchair.
Another issue, he feels might have made the difference is her transformation from 'Didi' to 'Bengal's daughter'. People seemed to have latched on to these ignored governance issues, but not in Nandigram.
In Nandigram, the supposed 'Bengal tigress' was humbled by a margin of 1,956 votes of the 2.28 lakh ballots cast.Cliff-hanger truly.
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| Once upon a time |
And as the results came in and she was basking in glory of a victory over mighty BJP, there was a slip of the tongue or the mask that she was always concerned about Nandigram.
All big talks evaporated. "Don't worry for Nandigram," she said tersely as if betraying her dislike for the people who voted against her."For struggle you have to sacrifice something ......I have forgotten now. It's okay. Let the Nandigram people give whatever verdict they want, I accept that".
Was it then without reasons that Suvendu Adhikari used to say Mamata Banerjee hardly showed concern for Nandigram once the movement was over during the Left regime?
The final outcome in Nandigram shows what her rivals have been claiming was correct - meaning a sure win for Suvendu Adhikari.
All throughout the day on the counting day, Mamata was trailing sometime even up to 8,000 votes margin.
Sitting in TV studios, some Trinamool leaders, however, kept on claiming that she is leading. The spin doctorsknow how to play.
"Trinamooler sho-bhagya; Banglar dur-bhagya (It may be good luck of Trinamool Congress, the verdict is definitelynot good for Bengal)," said a Congress worker in onetime Congress stronghold Malda.
His party leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury also said, "It was populism and promises that helped her while Congress and Left suffered".
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on April 1 (polling day itself) had said whatever went on in Nandigram suggested that Mamata has lost her poll.
Home Minister Amit Shah made similar claims and punctuated his speech with sarcastic remarks.
"I will share with you all a secret, that Mamata Banerjee has lost the poll in Nandigram''.
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