Guwahati/New Delhi: That sloganeering like 'Congress Half and AIUDF saaf' in Bengali dominated areas in Assam have come to stay in the run up to the elections; this is so not without good reasons.
There is an apprehension in around 35 'Assamese stronghold seats' only, there would be a real fierce triangular fights between newly floated regional parties,the BJP-AGP-UPPL alliance and the Congress-AIUDF.
In townships like Lumbding, Hojai, Dhubri, Silchar and Karimganj it is the Bengali population - both Hindus and Muslims - who will decide the fate of next course of power politics in Assam.
In Dhubri, for instance, while Assamese speaking population would be around 60 percent and 30 percent speak Bengali and the latter have good say in deciding who should represent them.
Even in hubs like Nagaon, it is the Muslim population that will decide the new members in the legislative house. In Golaghat, a small township with sizable Bengali population, a native Assamese, Nishikanta Baruah says to a large extent, the Congress and the AIUDF relationship needs to be 'explained' properly to the people.
The Congress leaders ought to clarify how their grand old party is 'different' from Badruddin Ajmal's party in the approach towards the issue of infiltration and 'Muslim migrants', he says.
The AIUDF essentially banks on support of Muslim population especially Bengali. In fact, this party was founded in 2005 (October 3) close on the heels of a major verdict by the Supreme Court that quashed 'immigrants' friendly' The Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunal ) (IMDT) Act was quashed.
It has been strongly argued even in the Supreme Court that the IMDT Act (enacted by Indira Gandhi government in 1983) and the Rules made thereunder "have been purposely so enacted or made so as to give shelter or protection to illegal migrants who came to Assam from Bangladesh" on or after 25th March, 1971 rather than to identify and deport them.
Every election season, the political atmosphere in Assam gets tinged with chauvanism -- anti-outsiders and also Hindu-Muslim divide.
Natives in Guwahati and other townships in the state say 'resentment' amongst the people is an old subject related to distrust of the 'indigenous people' vis-a-vis parties like the Congress.
In the eighties most of the 'Assam movement' originally targeted against infiltration of Bangladeshis got derailed when it got mixed with emotive anti-outsider sentiment. The state has for long suffered the adverse impact of a movement that was essentially aimed to ensuring the rights of the locals.
Of course coming to the forthcoming elections, the BJP and its allies comprising AGP and a newly found friend UPPL faces anti-incumbency mood.
There are also related issues at hand. Many say, safeguarding the interests of the endangered indigenous people is an issue and this is an area where Congress has failed mostly in the seventies and eighties.
Left to them, several individual BJP or for that matter even AGP leaders admit that five year of rule - with multiple episodes like anti-CAA protest and NPR row - is bound to turn a sizable voter anti establishment.
However, inner contradictions among Congress and its ally AIUDF, which banks on support of Bengali Muslim population, could actually come to the aid of Sarbananda Sonowal and Himanta Biswa Sarma duo.
There is yet another debate. Perhaps taking things further from what started in early seventies, the assembly polls in Assam could also witness the slide of the control of the Assamese speaking people in affairs of the State.
This decline began after Muslim migrants and leaders with backing of tea tribes and Muslims began filling up several seats.
These complexities have sparked debates about the merits of Congress decision to ally with All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF).
There is a broad agreement among voters in mainland Assam that while Congress makes a big hype of being 'secular', it is clueless when the leaders are quizzed about the growing Islamic radicalism.
According to some BJP leaders, unlike the past even supposed increase in Christian population among tribals and tea-garden workers are slowly emerging as an issue in this year's polls.
Long back, locals recall the Anwara Taimur government of Congress party had actually widened the gulf between natives and outsiders.
Her regime between December 1980 and June 1981 was known for showing high degree of sternness in dealing with the student activists and other agitators and things then went out hands.
A sizable section of voters admit that the Congress party in 2021 has also tried to score media mileage by its so called 'five guarantees'. However, the fact remains - these are just part of old wine in a new bottle.
"In today's world and economy where the size of the bureaucracy is a big concern, the guarantee of government jobs does not make much sense....It is a promise, Congress has made presuming they will never come to power. Otherwise, any sensible economist would have pointed out the issue of squandering of public money," says educationist Naushad Khan in Silchar.
BJP national president J P Nadda has gone a step further caustically said, "I do not know about Congress guarantees....But I can guarantee, Congress can ensure only Ghotala (corruption)".
Besides the corruption legacy, Congress has other problems too. Khan is a traditional Congress supporter but is annoyed with the manner the party has worked out alliance with the AIUDF. His argument is that such a poll arrangement with Ajmal's party would harm Congress in the long run.
Khan says - "Though I am a Bengali Muslim; it is a reality that 'migration' is a fact of life in Assam and it has led to a demographic change of the State".
However, he says, the issue has not been addressed and was only politicised. "But when it comes to action, except the controversial NPR road map, nobody is sure how and what steps ought to be taken to safeguard the interests of the endangered indigenous people".
Assam Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal perhaps understands the complexities of indigenous people well and therefore says, "In the past, the Congress regime focused on vote bank politics. That has harmed Assam. Our party has got a strong grip among smaller communities.....We have worked for smaller communities like Rabhas, Chutiyas, Kacharis and others. There are segments like Deshis, Morias and Jolahs".
Those who track BJP's poll strategy in Assam say, the Lotus party is optimistic that it can retain hold on 'Hindu support base' through steps like CAA.
"Moreover, the BJP thinks it can win indigenous support base by presenting itself as a protector of indigenous people's culture," says Kajol Sen in Lakhipur constituency near Silchar. In Assam elections, there are a few other issues at hand, but these are crucial ones.
Some voters say it is Prime Minister Narendra Modi's firm and decisive policies towards China and also Pakistan that would give him and the BJP a definite edge.
It is argued among citizens that lately the North East of India is getting an increased attention in the overall national security scenario. Of course, they say Modi has not only handled China angle and even Pakistan very well but he has also shown keen 'interest' in the region.
This is demonstrated with his frequent visits to Assam and other parts of the region while he has also instructed that Central ministers should also visit northeast in regular intervals.
The apprehension of decline in the role of Assamese speaking people is an issue and it is so not without good reason.
Rough estimates suggest of the 126 constituencies, the Muslims (mostly Bengalis) can have say in at least 30 segments, the tribals can influence outcome in 16, the Hindu Bengali over 7 and perhaps only 33-35 constituencies where the Assamese speaking people would have their say.
Incidentally, it these 'Assamese seats' that will see real fierce triangular fights between newly floated regional parties, the BJP-AGP-UPPL alliance and the Congress-AIUDF and other smaller parties.
ends
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