History has the habit of repeating itself and it is more so in contemporary politics.
The series of desertions in the Congress camp including the likes of one time insider Tom Vadakkan and across many states suggest the Congress party is up for an uphill task in the coming elections.
Playing up the Rafale aircraft deal row remains a big gamble despite the euphoria and media hype over the entry of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra into the poll scene. In recent weeks, the grand old party has suffered dissension across the country including Gujarat and Telangana where even a few months back, it was expected to put up a good fight.
There has been a ‘mess’ in the Maharashtra unit with Leader of the Opposition Vikhe-Patil going soft on the BJP-led state government and particularly on Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. His son Sujoy has joined BJP.
A few months back, there was revolt against Mumbai Congress chief Sanjay Nirupam. Even Priya Dutt had announced she would not be contesting.
In Gujarat, at least four MLAs quit even as Hardik Patel made an entry into the party. In Telanganga, at least six legislators have moved towards K Chandrasekhar Rao-led TRS. In Haryana, a three-time MP Arvind Sharma joined the BJP.In Delhi, Tom Vadakkam gave a virtual shocker. He joins the unique club of the likes of Natwar Singh – who also has been close to Sonia Gandhi one time - and now has turned an ardent critic of dynastic politics.
Congress president Rahul Gandhi has dismissed Vadakkan’s anguish and jumping the ship saying he was 'not a big leader', but the BJP leaders see that the pattern does not suggest a good going for the Congress.
“At least the past record says so,” says BJP’s Good Governance cell leader Virendra Sachdeva.
“Look at the records, revolts, desertion and dissensions within the Congress ranks have always taken the wind out of Congress party’s sail. Be that was 1999 when Sharad Pawar, P A Sangma and Tariq Anwar raised the foreign origin bogey of Sonia Gandhi or the 1977 story when Chandrasekhar, Jagjivan Ram and H N Bahuguna had left Congress,” Sachdeva told UNI.
In fact, statistics show the Congress suffered a debilitating blow for similar reasons in 1989 and 1996 too.
Interestingly, the worst drubbing the grand old party faced in 2014 – when its tally came down to a historic 44, there was no much dissension or desertion games.
In retrospect, BJP leaders point out – in 1998 when the Congress was desperate to make a comeback, firebrand leader Mamata Banerjee had dealt a severe blow by staging a rebellion against the then Congress president Mamata Banerjee.
Even a hardcore Sonia Gandhi-loyalist Mani Shankar Aiyer had joined her and her newly floated Trinamool Congress had tied up with the BJP much to the chagrin of the Congress.
The Congress in 1998, managed 141 seats – just three more than its 1996 tally. There was a downswing in voteshare and it had come down to 25.82 per cent.
In 1996, sources point out the season for migratory birds had caused immense damage to Congress when first Arjun Singh was expelled for his diatribe against P V Narasimha Rao. Late Singh along with stalwart N D Tiwari had floated All India Indira Congress (Tiwari) and threw a spanner in Narasimha Rao’s plans to return to power.
“That year what gave a rude shock to the Congress was formation of Tamil Manila Congress in Tamil Nadu under the leadership of G K Moopanar and even P Chidambaram had joined him. Congress failed to get a single seat in the southern state,” a BJP source said.
That year – even Madhav Rao Scindia had walked out of the party resulting in Congress meeting its waterloo and the BJP for the first time, had emerged as the single largest party.
In the past, in 1989, many say Bofors campaign in media and by opposition did not do as much damage to the Congress as did V P Singh walking out as Defence Minister from the Rajiv Gandhi cabinet.
With rebels like Arun Nehru, Arif Mohammad Khan and V C Shukla rallying behind, the Congress strength from a record 415 was brought down to 197.
The Nehru-Gandhi family has been ‘ousted’ from the Prime Minister’s official residence since then though between 2004 and 2014 – it was Sonia Gandhi who reportedly ran the UPA regime.
Interestingly, however, history also shows that not many Congress men and women could do well once they left the party. In 1996, Arjun Singh himself had lost the elections. Sharad Pawar’s ‘Maharashtra strongman’ tag did not take him far vis-a-vis prime ministerial ambitions and his party NCP also later worked under Sonia Gandhi as UPA chairperson.
Mr Pawar himself was Dr Manmohan Singh’s Agriculture Minister for 10 years.
Tariq Anwar has now returned to Congress fold in Bihar while former Lok Sabha Speaker P A Sangma’s politics too did not go far. He even unsuccessfully contested against Pranab Mukherjee for the coveted office of President of India in 2012.
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