"India has not had a single year without polls in last four decades .... since 1986" :::: A case for One Nation One Election - experts say - ONOE can lead to 1.5 percentage point rise in GDP

(Regular elections also mean growth in crime rates !!) 

 ONOE can lead to 1.5 percentage point rise in GDP

--  Experts to parliamentary committee

India has not had a single year without elections since 1986, placing the country in a perpetual election mode. It leads to a "spillover of populist promises", resulting in a "policy contagion effect", the sources citing the presentation said.

Frequent elections fuel unsustainable welfare measures, 

N K Singh, former finance commission of India chairman, along with another expert on Wednesday (July 30) made an economic case for simultaneous elections before a parliamentary committee.

They contended that the proposed ONOE if implemented will possibly lead to a 1.5 percentage point rise in the real GDP growth.

This also means higher capital expenditure and more investment activities.

In their joint presentation before the joint parliamentary committee, which is scrutinising the constitutional amendment bill for 'one nation one election' (ONOE), they quantified the rise in the GDP at Rs 4.5 lakh crore in terms of 2023-24 figures.

However, they added that the fiscal deficit is also expected to rise by 1.3 percentage point due to higher post-election spending.

The JPC had met earlier this month and held interactions with legal experts, including former Chief Justices of India, Justice J S Khehar and Justice D Y Chandrachud. 

Following the meeting, Committee Chairman P P Chaudhary had described the initiative as a golden opportunity for the panel to contribute to nation-building, with all members focused on preparing robust legislation.

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N K Singh is a former Revenue Secretary and a former JD-U MP.  

Both Singh and Prachi Mishra, economics professor, and head and director of Isaac Centre for Public Policy at Ashoka University, studied election cycles in India as it had simultaneous polls till 1967 before the schedules of Lok Sabha and assembly polls were split.

    

The expected rise in the GDP figure, the sources added, is almost half of the total health budget or a third of the education budget.

Studying the economic figures when national and state elections were held together in India, including when over 40 per cent of the assemblies went to polls the same year along with the Lok Sabha, they said the capital-to-current spending ratio is 5.4 percentage points higher than post-simultaneous elections, indicating a shift towards productive and return-generating investments.

The investment ratio against the gross fixed capital formation also goes up by 0.5 percentage point, reflecting greater investment activity, especially private and foreign.

Frequent elections disrupt economic activity due to uncertainty, adversely impacting manufacturing, construction, tourism and healthcare, with migrant workers frequently returning home and affecting productivity, they said, according to the sources.

Noting that migrants comprise nearly one-third of India's population, they said multiple elections impose financial burden on them, weakening their use of their voting rights.

N K Singh 

School enrollment also goes down by 0.5 percentage point around non-simultaneous elections due to the deployment of teachers on election duty and schools being converted into polling booths, they said.

    

They argued that the diversion of police for frequent electoral duties leads to a growth in crime during non-simultaneous elections due to a longer duration of deployment.

 

Non-simultaneous elections require more imposition of the Model Code of Conduct, restricting government functioning and slowing down development work.

Prachi University of Ashoka University